Fernando Alonso is adamant last season's run of seven winners in seven races will not be repeated this year.
Both the Formula One teams and fans were surprised last year when seven different drivers won the opening seven grands prix.
The spate of randomness was credited to the Pirelli rubber, which the teams took a while to understand.
However, once that happened the usual suspects came to the fore with Red Bull and McLaren winning nine of the last ten grands prix.
Asked during Ferrari's launch of their F138 whether he expected to see another run of different winners, Alonso said: "It will be very difficult to repeat what we saw last year with seven different winners from the first seven races
"That was a one off.
"With things a bit more stabilised, the top teams emerged at the end of last season, so I think highly there will be two or three teams who will win the majority of the race."
He added: "We need to be one of them."
The double World Champion, who won't be action at the first pre-season test at Jerez, also downplayed the decision to wait until Barcelona to run.
"I will follow the tests with great interest and all the information that comes back from Jerez I will be looking at.
"In the next few weeks I will certainly be concentrating on preparing for the Championship. I was busy [with the team] in December and January, and up until a week ago we were involved in activities.
"So, it is right to step back and prepare a bit so I am 100 per cent from Australia to Brazil.
"We are lucky in this team to have a real good level of trust between us. We trust each other explicitly. We have an extended team; we are not just one person..."
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