Norris vs Verstappen vs Piastri: Telemetry data reveals title favourite

The final and decisive race of the 2025 season is ahead of us, and one of the key questions is who will be the fastest in Abu Dhabi.

Let’s use telemetry data to see from whom we can expect the strongest race pace, and who holds the best chance of securing the championship title.

What FP2 data reveals about Abu Dhabi GP race pace

With Max Verstappen on pole position, Lando Norris in P2, and Oscar Piastri right behind him, the title fight remains wide open.

Lando Norris has the simplest path: all he needs is a podium. A top-three finish, and the championship is his. From Verstappen’s perspective, he needs the win, combined with Norris finishing P4 or lower, to claim his fifth consecutive crown.

Compared to the others, Piastri faces the most difficult task, as he requires a victory and a particularly poor race from Norris.

But because there is no Sprint race this time, FP2 (which is the most representative session due to track conditions) gives us a significant amount of useful data that can provide a preview of what we might expect in the Grand Prix itself.

The most important among these are certainly the long-run numbers.

From the graph above, we can see that during FP2 Norris looked the fastest when it comes to race-pace simulation. He completed eight laps on the soft tyres and, on average, was nearly two-tenths quicker per lap than Verstappen and almost half a second faster than Piastri – a notable advantage.

Norris’s laps were also much more consistent throughout his run (visible in the violin plot), unlike Verstappen but especially unlike Piastri, who struggled significantly in this area.

It must also be noted that Max completed the highest number of laps during his run and that his set of tyres was the oldest. On the other hand, we also know that Piastri was not satisfied with his long-run work and believes he can unlock a better pace on Sunday.

With that in mind – and with the fact that we cannot rely blindly on this data, since we do not know fuel loads or engine modes – we can conclude that all three drivers are pretty close.

What can create real on-track advantage is track position and clean air. Throughout the season we have repeatedly seen that a driver who enjoys clean air can control the pace and tyre degradation far better than the rest.

Given that Verstappen is highly likely to be that driver, thanks to starting from pole position, we can anticipate that his pace may well be the strongest of the three. That gives him the opportunity to dictate the rhythm and choose whichever strategy Red Bull feel is optimal at the moment.

A statistic that strongly reinforces his chances is that in the last ten Grands Prix at this venue, the pole-sitter has always gone on to win the race.

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How much will strategy matter in the finale?

When it comes to strategy, Yas Marina is a track that historically has not allowed much variation or improvisation. Last year, all of the top eight used the same approach – a one-stop strategy with medium and hard tyres.

Given that the compounds for this year’s Grand Prix are identical, we can assume there is a strong chance the same will happen again.

Drivers will not have much room to deviate or surprise through alternative strategy choices, so what options remain?

Although the Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies has said they cannot control what happens behind them, there may be a way.

One idea circulating is that Verstappen, if he keeps the lead, should avoid building too large a gap over the McLarens. That would keep the top five within closer reach of one another and increase the chances for Russell and Leclerc behind to undercut the McLarens with better pit-stop timing.

Another idea – specifically concerning Lando Norris – is that he should simply copy Verstappen’s strategy. This would increase his chances of staying directly behind Max, but could also open the door for others to pass him if that strategy proves sub-optimal.

However, an even more important factor may be the first corner, where contact is very easy – as last season already taught us. The ideal scenario for Verstappen would be Norris losing position to Piastri. Considering Norris’s ongoing struggles with race starts, this is a very realistic possibility.

An interesting statistic we can extract from this season is that, in 2025, Norris finished qualifying in P2 on seven occasions, and in five of those he also finished the race in second place. The circuits where he failed to do so were the Netherlands, where he recorded a DNF due to a mechanical failure, and the most recent race in Qatar, where precisely because of a strategic error he finished in P4.

In other words, every time Norris has failed to convert P2 into P2, it has been due to errors from the team, not mistakes made by him directly. Lando has still never won a race when starting from P2.

So, what can we conclude?

Taking everything into account, Norris still has the strongest chances of winning the championship. If the pressure does not impact his performance, he has an excellent opportunity to finish on the podium in Abu Dhabi.

What does Max Verstappen need? He needs a poor McLaren decision that could cost Norris the podium. Whether McLaren are willing to sacrifice the ‘papaya rules’ because of their driver’s desire to win a championship, we will soon find out (or maybe we won’t).

And finally, there is Oscar Piastri, for whom only outright chaos on track would open the door to a first world championship.

In short, this is Formula 1 – and every card is still very much on the table.

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