Max Verstappen telemetry data highlights two-part trigger behind shock Brazil Q1 exit

Brazilian Grand Prix qualifying was one to forget for Max Verstappen, whose fight for the championship title looks further away than ever after this Saturday.

Why did the Red Bull Racing car look so poor in Brazil, and why was the reigning world champion unable even to reach Q2? Telemetry data helps us uncover the answers.

Max Verstappen fifth title fight over?

After an excellent run of form following the summer break, during which Verstappen claimed three wins in four races and closed a significant gap to the McLaren drivers, trouble began in Mexico.

There, Red Bull brought a major upgrade package, including a redesigned version of the older RB21 floor. Max finished qualifying as the fifth-fastest driver, but thanks to a poor race for Oscar Piastri, the points loss wasn’t too severe.

However, the real blow came in Brazil, where despite two attempts at the end of Q1, Verstappen failed to set a time quick enough to progress and ended the session in P16. To find the last time Max set a lap in Q1 but failed to advance, we have to go all the way back to the 2017 Chinese Grand Prix.

What makes it more worrying is that Verstappen didn’t make any major mistake that would explain the lost time — so what exactly went wrong?

Red Bull and Max adopted an unusual approach in Q1, sending him out about five minutes before the end of the session when the track was almost empty. With no traffic and on brand-new soft tyres, Max still couldn’t get out of the drop zone — the first clear sign that something wasn’t right.

During that attempt, Max made a small error on the exit of Turn 9, where he lost rear grip under acceleration and had to correct with steering input. This mistake cost him around four-tenths of a second — enough to keep him outside the top 15 at that point.

After that came two cool-down laps to manage tyre temperatures and recharge the battery. Right at the end of Q1, Max began his final attempt, but the result on the timing screens was almost identical — P16 and elimination.

When comparing Verstappen’s lap with Lando Norris’s fastest lap in Q1, the first thing we notice is that the Dutchman was slower in every section of the circuit.

Already through the first three corners, Max lost around a quarter of a second. Onboard footage clearly shows how unsettled he was, with numerous small steering corrections — a clear sign of a car lacking grip.

The end of the first sector and the start of the middle one were acceptable, but new problems appeared from Turn 8 all the way to the long straight, which turned out disastrous for Verstappen. The white delta line on the telemetry graph shows how much time he lost in that short part of the track.

Even though there were no major mistakes in that section, Max was constantly fighting understeer and struggling with traction on throttle application, reacting later than usual each time.

The comparison below shows Verstappen’s first Q1 attempt versus his final one.

The white line represents his speed on the first flying lap, when he was alone on track, while the blue line marks his final qualifying attempt. What we can see is that Max was actually even slower in the first sector and through Turn 7 during his last run.

The only reason he slightly improved was that he avoided the earlier mistake, but the rest of the lap remained virtually identical. Note that on the last run, Verstappen’s car carried three laps less fuel, which significantly affects lap time. Such a performance is highly unusual for a four-time world champion. It’s clear that the poor qualifying session was the result of bad team preparation and a poorly set-up car.

The exact cause for this is, of course, unknown, but what we do know is that Red Bull changed the car’s setup during the session — without any positive results. Radio communication between him and his race engineer shows that neither the team nor Max have any idea what they can change to get more grip from the car.

Besides, it’s almost certain that the new (or rather, old) floor design also played a role, further complicating the work of Red Bull’s engineers.

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Is this the end of Verstappen’s title fight?

The Dutchman is undoubtedly in a very difficult position, and much will depend on the results of the McLaren drivers, especially Lando Norris. If Norris manages to defend pole and take victory, regardless of Max’s race result, Verstappen’s chances for a fifth consecutive title will become extremely slim.

However, if there’s one thing Brazil has taught us, it’s that with rain always a possibility here, nothing is certain until the chequered flag falls.

Last year’s race, when Verstappen won from P17 on the grid, is proof of that. One thing is for sure — we’re in for an exciting and unpredictable race in São Paulo.

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