Norris back to the top? Four bold predictions drop for Spanish GP

This weekend sees the conclusion of the European triple-header as F1 heads to Barcelona but the familiar track could spring a surprise with the much-talked-about technical directive coming into effect.

It has been a long run-up to the race in Spain after the FIA announced they would be clamping down on flexi-wings, bringing in a new technical directive for the first time this weekend which could see the field shaken up. Here’s what our writers reckon will happen:

The TD to not make much difference at all

By Sam Cooper

The mid-season TD has been billed as a potential game-changer for the season but when you look at who it is making those claims, it is often those looking for something to gain.

McLaren and Mercedes have been deemed the most at risk but there is no such thing as a silver bullet in F1 and even a mid-season technical directive looks unlikely to have such wide-ranging ramifications given the front wing is but a piece of an F1 car.

Therefore, I can’t see there being too much change this weekend and expect those at the top to stay there until at least 2026 when regulations really do change.

Norris returns to top of Drivers’ Championship

By Jamie Woodhouse

Like Sam, I don’t see these stricter FIA tests on the front wings having an impact on the pecking order.

And with that in mind, I reckon Lando Norris – fresh off the ecstasy of becoming a Monaco Grand Prix winner – will put all the confidence and momentum into winning the Spanish Grand Prix.

Such a result would guarantee that he returns to P1 in the Drivers’ standings after he reduced Oscar Piastri’s lead to three points last weekend, as a thrilling title scrap evolves once more.

Another Max Verstappen masterclass

By Mat Coch

Red Bull took a clear step forward at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. Max Verstappen was on form but he also had a car under him that meant he could deliver a McLaren-beating performance.

Key to that was tyre management. The party-piece of the McLaren MCL39, Red Bull appeared to make good progress on that with the package introduced in Imola.

And that’s not going to be specific to the Italian venue and it’s reasonable to expect traits seen in Imola to carry over.

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a broadly similar circuit to Spain and so it’s reasonable to suggest the relentless Dutchman will again be a fly in the ointment at the front of the pack.

F1 2025 head-to-head standings

👉 F1 2025: Head-to-head qualifying statistics between team-mates

👉 F1 2025: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates

Yuki Tsunoda to fall in Q1

By Oliver Harden

Yuki Tsunoda keeps hanging on in there, still without a Q1 exit on pace since he joined Red Bull ahead of Suzuka.

Yet his accident at Imola, the last time F1 raced at a purpose-built venue, had the feel of a flashing warning sign.

This was traditionally the time of year that Sergio Perez would reserve for his mid-season slump.

Tsunoda has been brave in his early weeks at Red Bull and, if anything, and despite his lack of results, seems to have seen his reputation enhanced purely because he has not folded like Liam Lawson.

But expect his resolve, and his grip on that second Red Bull seat, to weaken from here.

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