Abu Dhabi GP predictions: Joy for Carlos Sainz, a last Mercedes hurrah for Lewis Hamilton

After the final qualifying of the 2024 F1 season, the drivers will see the lights go out for the last time in Abu Dhabi.

Some will do so for the last time behind the wheel, others will do so for the last time in iconic colours like Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz and others like Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have the opportunity to bring glory back to a historic team like McLaren.

The final race of the 2024 Formula 1 season has several attractions with the Drivers’ World Championship already decided. McLaren can clinch its first Constructors’ Championship since 1998 and Alpine can secure sixth place in the Championship after an incredible end to the season.

We will also see the last laps of Lewis Hamilton in Mercedes colours. A possible last podium finish for Carlos Sainz as a Ferrari driver and… Sergio Perez’s last service for Red Bull?

Strategically, it’s a simple race for the teams. Drivers such as Hamilton and Charles Leclerc will extend their first stint as long as they can on one of the two sets of hard tyres they have available.

High degradation is expected so we will see in theory two stops with three possible predominant strategies: medium-hard-hard, hard-medium-hard or hard-hard-medium.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Abu Dhabi GP race and encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well in the comments section below for a last time in this 2024 season!

Abu Dhabi GP: Top 10 Predictions

10. Sergio Perez

One last point for Sergio Perez with Red Bull? Although it is true that in Abu Dhabi the grid is much more evenly matched and this does not work in his favour, his qualifying on Saturday was positive. With only one set of soft tyres in Q3, he came within three tenths of Max Verstappen.

With his future highly in doubt, putting in a good performance in Abu Dhabi and scoring a point could be a nice farewell to F1. He will start 10th behind Valtteri Bottas and Fernando Alonso, rivals he should easily overtake by pure race pace.

9. Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton was unlucky in his last qualifying for Mercedes. A bollard caught underneath his car prevented him from getting out of Q1 and he will start the race P16 with a long way to go to get back into the points.

Hamilton has already shown he is capable of doing so this year and on Sundays he always brings an extra point of performance.

With this being his last race for Mercedes, after 12 seasons with the team and 6 world titles that have made him, alongside Michael Schumacher, the most successful driver in history… Lewis is sure to leave his heart and soul behind the wheel before changing silver for red in 2025.

8. Charles Leclerc

If Hamilton’s race is going to be tough, Leclerc’s will be even tougher. After seeing his best Q2 lap eliminated by track limits and a 10-place grid penalty, the Ferrari driver will start the race in Abu Dhabi from 19th position.

The Italian team has to go all-in with Leclerc if it wants to fight McLaren for the Constructors’ Championship. Undoubtedly, he will have to extend his first or second stint waiting for a miracle in the form of a Safety Car or similar to be able to do so, even if it means sacrificing any chance of fighting for higher positions in this race.

7. Pierre Gasly

Once again, an incredible qualifying from the French driver who has finished the season on a high. His objective in this race is to be as conservative as possible in order to secure Alpine’s P6 in the Constructors’ Championship. Nothing more, nothing less. His fight is against Haas, not against the other drivers.

6. Nico Hülkenberg

His grid penalty is a real shame and a big handicap in Haas‘ fight against Alpine for sixth position in the Constructors’ Championship. The German will start the race in P7, but the American team’s great pace and powerful top speed should allow him to overtake Gasly even if this is not enough to beat the Enstone-based team.

5. George Russell

It’s clear that the Mercedes W15 likes temperatures a little cooler than Abu Dhabi. Far from being the battling car of Las Vegas and Qatar, at Yas Marina it looks like Russell won’t have much chance of fighting for the podium.

Still, starting from so far back Lewis Hamilton will have an easier target to overtake his team-mate in the Drivers’ Championship for good. The current gap between them is 24 points in Russell’s favour. The mathematics still give Hamilton a last, slim hope in this respect.

4. Oscar Piastri

After a discreet end of the season, the Australian driver is one of the big favourites for the victory in Abu Dhabi. McLaren’s pace seems superior to its rivals and a 1-2 is a strong possibility, but we believe that some teams have not yet said their last word and will reveal their true potential in the race.

3. Carlos Sainz

One last podium for Ferrari. It won’t be enough for the Italian team to win the Constructors’ Championship… but it will be a nice farewell for the Spanish driver who will drive for Williams next year. It won’t be easy as he will have to fight against Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes with very even race pace, but Sainz should be in the battle.

2. Max Verstappen

Despite not having the same dominant pace as in Qatar, Verstappen lost P2 on the grid for a wild oversteer at the last corner of his first Q3 attempt. He will start P4 on the grid after Nico Hülkenberg’s penalty.

His race pace is promising and with nothing at stake for his individual interests and for the team, capping it off with a final podium in 2024 to celebrate his future fatherhood is a nice gift.

1. Lando Norris

After making a rookie mistake in Qatar by failing to brake under yellow flags and paying the price of poor and big FIA race control decisions, Norris has the chance to secure McLaren its first Constructors’ Championship since 1998 with Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard.

It could be Norris’ fourth race win this season and his first since the Singapore GP. Starting from pole position will make it a little easier for him than for the rest of his rivals.

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