Australian Grand Prix predictions: Double Aston Martin DNF, Russell wins, Hadjar reality check
Fernando Alonso stopped less than an hour into the afternoon session on the penultimate day of testing in Bahrain
The F1 2026 season begins this weekend with the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park in Melbourne.
Who will impress as Formula 1 enters its new era? Our writers cast some predictions for the F1 2026 curtain raiser…
P1 for George Russell, P22 for Fernando Alonso
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By Michelle Foster
Oh, to bank on Ferrari, to bet on Ferrari, but the promise of lightning-fast starts do not necessarily make a race-winning car.
Max Verstappen, with his energy deployment advantage, or so rivals tattle, that too doesn’t win races.
Nor does that number ‘1’ on Lando Norris’ McLaren.
But Mercedes, banging in lap after lap and every one of those at decent pace, hints at something.
So too does Mercedes’ prediction that everyone but Mercedes will win the grand prix.
Quiet confidence, George Russell’s smile, Kimi Antonelli’s P2 without even trying… everything right now hints at a Mercedes victory at the Australian Grand Prix, with reliability the W17’s only threat.
Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen will be next in line.
As for the back of the field, Cadillac will finish P19 and P20 as Aston Martin won’t finish at all.
A surprisingly unsurprising podium awaits
By Thomas Maher
Despite the newness of the regulations, I don’t believe this weekend will be chaos. Mostly, anyway.
The usual names will be towards the front, but the order is difficult to predict.
From what we were hearing at the end of testing, it looks like Mercedes and Ferrari may be the teams to beat initially, with McLaren and Red Bull just a smidge behind the leading duo.
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But that’s on pure pace, and, at the first time of asking, expecting everyone to have everything optimised to peak operational sharpness is a step too far, so I wouldn’t be surprised by one or two big scalps falling early in qualifying, and perhaps some unusual mistakes on Sunday.
Assuming a straightforward weekend weather-wise, I don’t believe we’ll yet see a new name as a race winner: any one of George Russell, Charles Leclerc, or the omnipresent Max Verstappen will stand atop the podium on Sunday – perhaps even in that order.
However, capitalising on the said mistakes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the likes of Isack Hadjar or Kimi Antonelli on the podium.
As for the midfield, I expect Williams to score points to underline its recovery from the slow start to the year, and I also reckon Aston Martin will get one of its cars to the finish line, although not ahead of a Cadillac.
Three different constructors on the podium
By Jamie Woodhouse
The suggestion coming out of testing was that the top four are at a similar level. But in what order was the mystery.
I will retain faith that nobody is hiding a Mercedes-2014 level of advantage for Melbourne, and that indeed, Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull are all in relatively close quarters for performance.
As such, and building a little on Michelle’s prediction, I reckon there will be three different constructors represented on the podium.
George Russell wins, Charles Leclerc second, but Lando Norris for the final step on that Melbourne podium.
Isack Hadjar will fail to reach Q3 on Red Bull debut
By Oliver Harden
There are reasons to believe that Isack Hadjar will be more suited to the challenge of being Max Verstappen’s teammate than most to have come before.
There is no shortage of self-confidence here, but also some realism that it will take time to grow into the role. Plus, helpfully, his technique is closer to Max’s style than his previous teammates.
Plenty of things in his favour, then.
And yet still it cannot be underestimated how challenging it is to be Verstappen’s wingman.
Hadjar’s Red Bull debut will be more accomplished than Liam Lawson’s last year, but still not quite what the team is looking for. Not yet anyway.
He will fall short of Q3 in Melbourne.
And then, like Lawson, 12 months ago, he will face an early test of the strength of his character.
Reliability jeopardy
By Mat Coch
Pre-season testing must always be taken with a grain of salt, but even allowing for all the unknowns, Mercedes looks strongest; George Russell has to enter this weekend favourite.
Behind him? That’s a good question. Ferrari looks good, and McLaren wasn’t far away, and Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will have the latest spec Mercedes power unit (they didn’t in testing).
The top four teams will be clear, but reliability will be key. That’s where the surprise will come from.
With all-new power units, run in anger for the first time. Are they all up to snuff? I can absolutely see some unusual results as cars fall by the wayside.
But I can’t see that changing the major results. Mercedes looked both fast and reliable, and the top four a clear step clear. Our top three will be a mix of those eight cars.
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