Azerbaijan GP predictions: Leclerc no Antonelli, Russell desperation bites, rookie breakthrough

The 15th race of the F1 2026 season with take place at this weekend’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.

Our writers cast their predictions ahead of this rare Saturday race weekend.

Qualifying chaos in Baky

By Michelle Foster

The Formula 1 drivers will match, if not even beat, last year’s six red flags in qualifying for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Last season there was chaos in qualifying as six drivers – Alex Albon, Nico Hülkenberg, Franco Colapinto, Oliver Bearman, Charles Leclerc, and Oscar Piastri – all hit the walls.

With its technical corners and narrow castle sections, the drivers are often just a few millimetres away from crashing.

This season, Formula 1’s smaller and more agile cars mean the track should be easier to navigate, but power deployment and battery harvesting could throw qualifying into disarray.

I’d say expect an unexpected driver on pole position, but with the long straights it will go to one of the Mercedes drivers – unless, of course, they crash.

George Russell desperation to bite

By Sam Hall

George Russell absolutely must win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in order to keep his championship hopes alive. As he himself would says, “Facts.”

But this is exactly why I don’t expect the Briton to come out on top on Saturday. Moreover, this is why I don’t expect him to finish.

With an 88-point deficit to Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli, it is impossible that Russell will not feel an element of desperation in the cockpit, and around Baku, this can all-too easily result in a one-way trip to the wall. Just look at Oscar Piastri last year as a prime example.

After Lewis Hamilton all-but conceded defeat to the Italian last weekend, I fully expect similar noises to come from Russell this time around, with a DNF potentially leading to a 113-point margin after the flag.

As much as we’d all love a thrilling title battle to emerge, I’ll pour some cold water on that dream.

Charles Leclerc is not going to do a Kimi Antonelli

By Jamie Woodhouse

Admittedly I’m basing my prediction on a hypothetical, but Ferrari has dropped strong hints that Charles Leclerc could take an engine-related grid penalty in Baku.

Should this come to pass, the mind quickly recalls what champion-in-waiting Antonelli produced in that scenario on home soil.

Do not expect the same from Leclerc.

Antonelli remarkably went from the tenth row to victory at Monza, a real power circuit. Comparisons can be drawn to Baku, especially in regards to that monster start/finish straight.

But, deployment has been an uncomfortable buzzword when it comes to Ferrari in F1 2026. Lewis Hamilton has regularly thrown up some numbers on how many tenths the Scuderia are giving up to Mercedes.

While the Mercedes engine will unlikely save Williams in Baku, Leclerc could face a hard time clearing the Alpines. Forget about McLaren and Mercedes.

Break into the top 10, Leclerc may just about accomplish. Do an Antonelli and win, no.

Pierre Gasly will fight for pole position again

By Oliver Harden

Three weeks after Monza, here comes another high-speed, long-straight slipstreamer of a circuit.

Pierre Gasly will be licking his lips.

As will pretty much every other driver with a Mercedes engine.

The Williams pair aside, still miles off the pace even on a Mercedes circuit, opportunity knocks for them all this weekend.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Gasly’s surprise pole position in Italy was the execution.

Often unfancied teams spurn the chance when they suddenly find themselves with a quick car on their hands, as if spooked by their own pace.

Yet the steady, Steve Nielsen-led influence slowly taking over Enstone inspires a certain level of trust that Alpine will convert whatever opportunities are presented to the team.

Will lightning strike twice? Probably not.

Yet if Alpine can find Franco Colapinto a safe passage through to Q3, and position him nicely to give Gasly a tow for that long run to the line, let’s not rule it out.

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A breakthrough performance from the only F1 2026 rookie

By Henry Valantine

He may be doing so without massive fanfare so far, but Arvid Lindblad is having an excellent rookie season over at Racing Bulls.

Including his point in the Sprint in Canada, he has come away with at least a point in nine of the last 10 races and, more often than not, has found himself breaking in to be one of the non-top-four-team drivers in Q3 on Saturdays.

His opening laps in Australia were eyebrow-raising, but sixth place in Monaco has proven to be his ceiling through the year so far.

Baku has almost always produced moments, or at least a big moment of drama, in pretty much every year Formula 1 has visited. Lindblad has proven himself both fast and consistent this year, so he’ll be there to pick up any pieces of any action at the front.

Put me down for a top-five finish for him.

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