Bahrain GP predictions: Russell’s final nail, Verstappen lockdown, rain chaos

The Bahrain Grand Prix, held at the former Malaysia Grand Prix venue in Sepang, will host the 16th round of the F1 2026 season this weekend.

Our writers have cast their predictions as Formula 1 makes its hotly-anticipated return to Sepang.

Antonelli to obliterate Russell’s championship hopes

By Michelle Foster

Winning the Azerbaijan Grand Prix after an incredible pole position lap that put him nine-tenths clear of his nearest rival, George Russell declared that the pressure is on championship leader Kimi Antonelli after he reduced his teammate’s lead to 66 points.

But given it is the first time in six race weekends that Russell has scored more points than Antonelli, it will be water off a duck’s back – or down the side of a world championship trophy – for the Italian.

Yes, Russell took 15 points out of Antonelli’s lead. But in the previous five races, Antonelli outscored the Briton by 51 points.

Every time this season that Russell has thought for just one moment that he could claw his way back into the fight, Antonelli has put him firmly in his place.

Sepang won’t be any different.

While it may be a new circuit for the championship leader, it’s also a new one for Russell, as it is for the majority of the 22-driver field

With its long straights, heavy braking zones and sweeping corners, the track will suit Mercedes’ W17 and its (almost) all-conquering power unit. Both the chassis and the engine will be bolstered by the team’s upgrades.

In a Mercedes head-to-head, the smart money is on Antonelli to come out on top having outscored Russell nine times to the Briton’s five.

As he told PlanetF1.com and other accredited media in Baku: “I’ll make sure next week I re-establish the order and just make sure that I will be at back at my usual level.”

A step into the great unknown

By Mat Coch

Since F1 last visited Sepang in 2017 much has changed. The circuit has been refurbished, both on track and off, that that promises to create an entirely new challenge for teams.

In many ways, it will be a brand-new circuit. The data they gleamed a decade ago will have little relevance now, especially given sections of the circuit have been resurfaced. There has been some other works too, designed to spice up the racing at a venue that is heavily used by motorcycling and regional endurance competitions.

It begs the question: how good is the model each team has? How accurate is the simulator? Just what information have they been able to access in order to prepare for this weekend, and how have they been able to execute on that?

These are the hidden elements that support F1 on a standard race weekend; thousands of data points are fed into the simulator where engineers and (usually) reserve drivers ply their trade to zero in on THE setup. The team that has done that the best will have a strong early advantage in Sepang.

The Bahrain GP (a name that remains as bizarre now as when it was first announced) will also reward those who can build on that early information from Friday into Saturday. Expect long nights, and a potentially wildly different pecking order come qualifying than we saw at the end of Free Practice 2.

This weekend is all about learning. Track time, data points, and a methodical approach are critical. The team with the best support processes and simulator correlation will win the day. Or at least over perform.

Max Verstappen picks up where he left off

By Jamie Woodhouse

Red Bull’s four-time world champion came the closest yet to an F1 2026 win last time out. Within two-tenths of George Russell at the line after a drag race to the Baku chequered flag, was that Verstappen’s best chance been and gone? No.

Russell may have revealed a Mercedes upgrade package coming for Sepang, a press conference bombshell which alerted Verstappen, but, as Mat mentions above, this weekend is a trip into the unknown.

Data indeed plays a critical role in Formula 1. We saw at the Madring how engineers descended on a brand new track and had it all figured out to the point of a delayed emergence onto the circuit at the start of FP3.

But, the driver must then execute on track. This is where the Verstappen factor makes its mark.

Throw into the mix some of that trademark Sepang rain, which has been soaking our very own Thomas Maher over recent days, and it is a recipe for Verstappen to get off the mark in F1 2026 with Bahrain GP victory, in Malaysia.

Verstappen will keep Sepang on lockdown. He will remain the most recent winner of the Malaysian Grand Prix regardless. He will also defend his place as the most recent victor in Malaysia.

Reduced points for a shortened race

By Oliver Harden

Ahhh, Sepang. How we have missed you.

More than a quarter of a century after it first arrived on the calendar, it remains the best of the modern supercircuits, oozing the character sorely lacking at newer circuits like the anything-but-Madring.

Another advantage Malaysia has over venues like Sakhir – the circuit it has effectively replaced on this year’s schedule – is the bonus wildcard of unpredictable weather.

The shortened 2009 race – Jenson’s pace as the rain came down, Ferrari putting wet tyres on Kimi in the dry before he disappeared for an ice cream – remains one of the more memorable grands prix in recent history.

Lest we forget 2012, too, when Sergio Perez’s mistake allowed Fernando Alonso to escape to victory, the first win of a near-faultless season.

Nine years after Malaysia last hosted Formula 1, I find myself almost willing for the full Sepang experience.

So let’s have it: a mid-race downpour causes chaos, leaves a few big names in the gravel and sees reduced points awarded when the rain, rain refuses to go away and come back another day.

Let’s savour this one.

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Rain…at long, long last

By Sam Hall

Much like Oliver above, I can’t wait for the return of Sepang, and am hopeful that we will finally get a properly wet race.

There appears to be a decent chance of rain at some point on both Saturday and Sunday, so touch wood, this won’t be another case of F1 cars scaring the clouds into the distance.

If there is rain in Bahrain…I mean, Malaysia…it is never just a few spots. We’ve seen absolute monsoons in the past, and while that may be a little bit too much, a downpour enough to cause teams to consider the lesser-seen full wet tyre would be a treat.

A bold prediction in such conditions would be that Max Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton could emerge as potential candidates for an unexpected race win.

But let’s be honest, the skies will remain blue, and the Mercedes will romp into the sunset. But can’t we all dream a little?

A repeat winner at Sepang

By Henry Valantine

Only Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso can count themselves as race winners around Sepang from the current grid and, barring an absolute miracle from Alonso, I reckon one of the other two could make it onto the top step.

Of those, I’d say Hamilton is the less likely as it stands given Ferrari’s apparent slide backwards of late. They’re not out of reach of the front by any means, but the two final straights at Sepang are likely to be battery killers, and the power unit has not been the Scuderia’s best suit so far this season.

As for Verstappen, though, he’s finished on the podium in five of the last six races (he retired in the other), and it really feels as though he’s beginning to suss out exactly what is expected from the 2026-era machinery.

It has taken a while for him to understand, but he’s making the absolute most of what is underneath him and, should the Mercedes duo drop the ball, he’ll be in prime position to take his first victory this season.

(An aside for an ‘old man yells at cloud’ comment: why can’t more of the future circuit designs be like Sepang? It feels like ever-increasing contortions are being made in the past decade to, with the exception of Las Vegas, give tracks needlessly fiddly, technical sectors which really don’t accomplish much. When a layout really works, 16 corners are perfectly fine instead of 22.)

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