Barcelona GP predictions: Mercedes flashpoint, surprise winner, a final Barcelona race for one driver

Title drama between the Mercedes teammates, a surprise winner and a fond farewell to Barcelona for a Formula 1 legend.

Our writers make their predictions for round seven of the F1 2026 championship, the Barcelona Grand Prix.

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A decade on, history will repeat for Mercedes

By Michelle Foster

One would have to be brave to bet against Kimi Antonelli at the Circuit de Catalunya-Barcelona as the championship leader looks to continue his record-breaking run of victories – now up to five – alive.

But call me brave, or call George Russell desperate, Barcelona will be the boiling point in the Mercedes battle as history repeats itself.

Remember 2016?

Antonelli may not as he was just nine years old at the time, but that was the day Nico Rosberg said enough was enough to Lewis Hamilton. And he meant it.

Lining up first and second, Hamilton ahead, Rosberg made that better start and got around Hamilton on the outside of Turn 1. The Briton fought back and tried to take the regain P1 out of Turn 3, but Rosberg was having none of that.

He defended his position and squeezed Hamilton, who went off the track and lost control of his W07. He spun back onto the track and collected Rosberg, with both drivers were out of the Grand Prix at Turn 4.

Although both Antonelli and Russell have told Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff to trust them to keep it clean, Russell’s deficit to Antonelli is growing race by race, while his hopes of a world title are fading in equal measure.

As it was a decade ago, Spain will be the flashpoint in the Antonelli/Russell rivalry. And what a flashpoint it promises to be.

Ferrari’s false dawn

By Mat Coch

As encouraging as it was to see a rejuvenated Ferrari in Monaco last weekend, I don’t expect that to continue in Barcelona this time around.

Monaco is a very specific circuit, one that both played to the Scuderia’s strengths while masking its weaknesses. The net result, an event that flattered to deceive.

General consensus is the SF-26 is draggy, while its power unit is known to be well down on power versus the class-leading Red Bull Powertrain.

Circuit de Barcleona-Catalunya rewards both power and aerodynamic efficiency, and for those reasons I expect Ferrari will suffer more than it did on the streets of Monte Carlo.

There are encouraging signs for the team, and it’s exciting to see Lewis Hamilton back on form, so whatever they’re doing in Maranello is netting results, but it’s not there yet.

Instead, it’s advantage Mercedes and, as Thomas has written below, McLaren. Watch out for Red Bull as a dark horse too, if the team can dial in the balance Max Verstappen wants.

McLaren to bring an end to Mercedes’ streak

By Thomas Maher

I was in the media centre at the Barcelona race in 2016 when the two Mercedes drivers collided, and I remember the reverb of shock as the collective media realised the enormity of what we’d just seen.

It’s for that reason that I don’t believe anything like that will happen this weekend: the likes of Toto Wolff, Bradley Lord, Marcus Dudley, and Pete Bonnington were all on hand for that moment, and the drivers will no doubt be aware of the ghost of that incident in their minds if they do find themselves in battle.

I am going to predict that Russell will get a handful of points back against Antonelli this weekend – it won’t be big, it won’t be dramatic, but it’ll be a steadying of the ship.

As I wrote in my Winners and Losers column on Monday, Russell’s side of the garage has been missing some ingredients in the title fight, but the speed and performance from the driver is not in doubt.

But I do reckon there will be a sting in the tail, and that is that McLaren ends Mercedes’ dominant streak by claiming victory.

Obviously, these ‘predictions’ are based on gut feelings rather than any sort of crystal ball gazing, and, to make it happen, some luck might be needed: Mercedes’ raw pace is fearsome, and Catalunya is not a track at which it’s easy to keep a car behind.

But, with the Mercedes power unit, and McLaren competitive at Suzuka (seems like aeons ago, doesn’t it?) and Miami, Catalunya may suit the car far more than recent events.

I’m going to hazard a guess and say that it’ll be Lando Norris who gets his first win of the year, ahead of Russell and Antonelli.

Russell fights back, or a Mercedes repeat of 2016, perhaps?

By Henry Valantine

The last thing Mercedes will want to be brought up repeatedly this weekend is how it’s now a decade since *that* collision between Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton in Barcelona, which prompted such furious action from Toto Wolff that both drivers were almost fired.

However, with George Russell bemoaning the bad luck that has come his way, expect him to fight back hard in Barcelona.

If we’re expecting Mercedes to be back to ‘normal’ by 2026 pace standards and lock out the front row, that long run to the first corner could prove fascinating.

Russell will likely have his elbows out for the rest of the season now, and no matter what the drivers say about fighting hard but fair at Mercedes, instinct will take over once the visors go down.

So, with that, either Russell is able to re-find his form from the very start of 2026 and take another win, or another gloves-off battle between the pair. Who dares blink first in that one? Neither will want to, which is why I think that, if things really do get tense, there could be some form of contact.

Fernando Alonso to suffer a DNF/DNS in his last (?) Barcelona race

By Oliver Harden

Will this be Fernando Alonso’s last appearance in front of his home crowd in Barcelona? It’s possible.

Although Madrid is still to come later this year, Barcelona will not return to the calendar until 2028 now it shares a place with Spa from next season.

Will Fernando still be kicking around two years from now? On the verge of his 47th birthday, if you please?

Knowing him, you would not rule it out. But it’s unlikely.

And also, if we’re totally honest, not particularly preferable.

If he really is still here in a couple of years, still pounding away out of the points in a lumbering Aston Martin like an old rocker whose last hit was 20 years ago, a growing number of people will be minded to shout at him: ‘For God’s sake, man, just let it go.’

Nobody wants that.

He has won this race twice before, of course, with his most recent F1 victory occurring here back in 2013.

Ever since then, however, his career has been a tale of almost never-ending misery.

It would be a shame, yet also darkly fitting, if his last dance in Barcelona were to end in disappointment too.

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