Belgian GP conclusions: Spa sacrilege, Russell rattled, Verstappen temptation

Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli claimed his sixth win of the F1 2026 season in the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa.

Antonelli extended his lead in the drivers’ championship to 45 points after teammate George Russell retired on the opening lap, with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc second and Max Verstappen third for Red Bull. Here are our conclusions from Belgium…

Spa has been sacrificed at the altar of Formula Net Zero

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It is probably no coincidence that it has been left to the classic circuits to expose the full madness of the 2026 rules.

Almost certainly, the regulations were not designed with these places in mind.

The likes of Spa and Silverstone – increasingly treated as red meat to throw at what the men in suits call ‘legacy fans’ – probably did not even come into the equation when these rules were devised four years ago.

No, the focus instead would have been on the supercircuits of the New World: Miami, Vegas and the rest.

In the stampede to turn Formula 1 green, presumably nobody stopped to consider what exactly these cars would look like going into Maggotts and Becketts and up the hill towards Les Combes.

Or that a downshift – A DOWNSHIFT! – would be required through Raidillon.

If anyone had, surely the 2026 rules would never have seen the light of day.

How to sum up the Belgian Grand Prix in a single sentence?

Everything bad about this season – empty battery overtakes, potentially lethal speed differentials, great corners reduced to charging stations, engines running out of puff halfway down the straights – turned up to the max and rolled into one.

It has become fashionable over recent years to say that Formula 1 has simply outgrown some circuits on the calendar.

The debate reopens every year with great inevitability after yet another processional Monaco Grand Prix.

Even Imola, during its short-lived return to the calendar, was insultingly described by some as an exercise in missile guidance rather than motor racing in its purest form – as though a circuit that actually punishes driver error is somehow a bad thing.

It is not the case that F1 has outgrown Spa.

Instead, Spa has been needlessly sacrificed at the altar of Formula Net Zero.

The sport has neutered itself so far beyond recognition in 2026 that it has committed an act of sacrilege against one of motorsport’s most sacred monuments.

The news that the Belgian Grand Prix is to become a so-called ‘rotation race’, sharing its place on the calendar with Barcelona from next season, was met with widespread disappointment when it was announced last year.

In light of this weekend, though, maybe on reflection it is not such a bad thing after all.

Maybe Formula 1 and Spa, totally incompatible for as long as these regulations remain in place, are in need of some time apart.

At least until F1 has finished wrestling with its identity crisis, gets its priorities right and finally works out what it really wants to be.

Nothing will stop Kimi Antonelli from winning the F1 2026 title

There are moments in each season that act as signposts, giving a firm indication of where the wind is blowing.

Kimi Antonelli’s run of five consecutive victories at the start of 2026, capped off with the most convincing of all in Monaco, was one.

His return to the top step of the podium at Spa on Sunday, on a day George Russell suffered a third non-score in six races, was another.

There may have been a little panic in the cockpit of the number 12 Mercedes when Charles Leclerc took advantage of a timely VSC to pit and rejoin in the lead at Spa.

Yet at the circuit where he was moved to tears 12 months ago at the lowest point of his debut season, Antonelli’s self-control and composure in ruthlessly hunting him down – catch, pass, win – confirmed how far he has come in so little time.

It had been a frustrating few weeks for Antonelli since his last victory in Monte Carlo on June 7.

Conclusions recap: How the F1 2026 season has unfolded

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He had been in line for second place before his retirement in Barcelona and had been closing in on Leclerc for victory at Silverstone at the moment his so-called ‘wheel shield’ snapped.

Sandwiched between those, of course, was Russell’s desperate little trick under yellows in Austria qualifying, giving him the advantage of pole position – and clean air with which to protect his tyres – on a weekend Antonelli was clearly the faster Mercedes driver.

Sixty-eight points clear of Russell after Monaco, in the blink of an eye the gap had been reduced to 25 after Silverstone.

Russell took the opportunity after that race to claim that 25 points was a fair reflection of the contrasting performance levels of the Mercedes drivers after nine races.

Not for the first time in his career, George allowed his mouth to run away with itself.

Since Miami, the race where Russell’s struggles proved to run far deeper than first thought, the difference between them can best be described not as a gap, but a chasm.

If Antonelli has lived up to the hype as the most exciting driver to arrive in Formula 1 since Max Verstappen, Russell has been Sergio Perez with a British passport.

Russell’s comments about that 25-point gap were put to Antonelli in Thursday’s FIA press conference with Kimi pointing out that, unlike George, his issues in Barcelona and Silverstone occurred when his results were close to being locked in and the points guaranteed.

He went on to stress the importance of Mercedes resolving the reliability problems that have plagued both cars so far this season.

Increasingly it feels like a freak run of retirements – similar to that which destabilised Lewis Hamilton in 2016 – is the only way Antonelli could possibly be denied the world championship from here.

Even then, his natural advantage over Russell is such that he could easily win enough of the 12 remaining races to render any further setbacks irrelevant.

A more advanced driver than Russell even at this stage of his young career, Kimi has George exactly where he wants him.

And judging by Russell’s emotional reaction to his first-lap retirement – television crews who spoke to him in the aftermath reported that he was the one on the verge of tears at Spa this time – his spirit is close to being broken.

The gap between them now after Spa? Fifty points. That’s what you call an accurate reflection.

Long-term readers of this column will be familiar with a concept called the complete elimination of doubt, the moment something inside flicks and a driver starts to have the look and feel of a world champion.

Antonelli has not quite reached that stage yet, but he is getting there with each passing race.

For now, let’s settle on calling him inevitable.

Much like the destination of the 2026 title, come to think of it.

George Russell is the new Lando Norris

It was nine years ago that the wider F1 world first became aware of the names George Russell and Lando Norris.

Both had their maiden F1 tests in 2017, the season before being pitted against each other as title contenders in Formula 2, when already it was clear that they were heading straight to the top.

Like the most impressive young drivers these days – the latest being Arvid Lindblad – a young George and Lando seemed to carry the air of grand prix drivers long before they even made it to Formula 1.

So polished. So professional. So, well, inevitable.

Hell, they might as well have been called Jenson Jr and Little Lewis.

There was Lando, with the quiet mystique that surrounds the most gifted teenage athletes.

And there was Slideshow George, smooth as smooth can be, almost too perfect in some ways and speaking in that English gentlemanly way that dots every ‘i’ and crosses every ‘t’.

Even back then, you felt, it was a matter of time before these princes would be kings.

From what we have learned about Norris, sensitive soul that he is, in the years since, it was little surprise that he occasionally found his rise to championship contention overwhelming.

The journey to his first race victory was arduous and agonising enough at times without a title being on the line too.

It was almost to be expected that in his 2025 season there would be moments he would stagger and stumble and look totally unfit for the status of world champion.

Right until the moment that he crossed the finish line in Abu Dhabi and actually won the thing.

Russell? There were no such doubts entering 2026.

With Mercedes’ dominance restored at the start of a new era, this was meant to be his moment.

Unlike Norris, whose failures Russell was all too eager to point out, George was meant to seize the day he finally got his hands on a dominant car.

If only Lando had an ounce of George’s self-confidence, he would be lethal. That’s what people used to say.

Not anymore.

Far from being everything Norris is not, Russell is proving himself to be the new Lando.

The problem for Russell is that he seemed to think that all of this would be easy. That, with a car this quick, the title would come naturally to him.

Yet confronted by a threat he did not expect in the form of Kimi Antonelli – a driver now showing up the holes in Russell’s driving style on a weekly basis – he does not know how to respond.

Wounded and weak and still scrambling around for the feeling he last truly had back in Australia, he does not even look capable of responding right now.

It is astonishing that a driver so self-assured and confident on the surface – self-assured and confident, it must be said, to the point of arrogant – could find himself reduced to something so exposed, so vulnerable.

For some months now, Russell has appeared more lost than Norris did at any stage in 2025.

And even in the moments of respite – his pole position in Barcelona, his victory in Austria – those flaws are still there.

Russell has made a great deal over the last two weekends of his lack of straight-line speed compared to Antonelli, pointing constantly to a mysterious issue of some description.

Yet as noted in PlanetF1.com’s winners and losers from qualifying at Spa, this is not a technical gremlin in the classic sense, but something rooted in the technique of each driver, Russell tending to ask more of the car earlier in the lap than Antonelli and paying for it later on.

It is revealing that George is not the only one – Esteban Ocon, another driver being pummeled into submission by his younger teammate, had a very similar complaint after qualifying on Saturday – struggling with this issue.

How can you tell that Russell is no longer thinking clearly? The nature of his retirement at Spa.

Faced with losing three positions on the Kemmel straight alone, the sensible thing to do would have been to take the punishment, survive the opening lap, reset and use the Merc’s inherent advantage in these silly high-energy-management races to pick them off one by one.

In trying to force his way around the outside of Les Combes, George allowed the frustration to get to him, impact his judgement and put himself in the way of danger.

It is at times like this you are reminded that a title battle is the greatest test of a racing driver’s credentials.

There is nothing like a championship fight to shine a light on a driver’s greatest strengths and expose his biggest weaknesses.

Turns out that Russell has far more weaknesses than anyone imagined.

The tragedy of Lando Norris’s 2026

One of the great regrets about Nico Rosberg’s decision to retire after winning the world championship a decade ago is that it prevented us from witnessing The Year After The Year.

It is accepted wisdom that Rosberg had nothing left to give after throwing everything at 2016, and yet…

How much better would he have become as world champion? How would the satisfaction and inner peace of winning the title, of having the number one on his car, have changed him?

Might it have elevated him, like so many other drivers throughout history, to a whole new level entirely?

There are few greater sights in sport than watching an athlete shine in the afterglow of a major career triumph, growing even stronger, better, more complete.

With his decision to retire, though, Rosberg effectively became a five-day world champion, the crown knocked off his head just as he was trying it out for size.

There has been a similar sense watching Lando Norris, his title defence virtually non-existent, in 2026.

One of the most exciting things about Norris winning the title last year was the potential it had to transform him.

Having always struggled to see in himself what others saw so clearly, Lando finally had tangible, irrefutable proof with the championship trophy in his hands.

Yet no sooner had he climbed to the summit of the mountain, he found himself back at the foot all over again.

McLaren’s step back under the new regulations, and the re-emergence of Mercedes and Ferrari, has denied Norris the chance to hold the pose and ride the momentum of his success in 2025.

As with Rosberg in 2017, F1 has transitioned so quickly from one era to the next, one in which new stars are rising, that it is sometimes hard to even remember the name of last year’s world champion.

It is a great shame, not least as Norris himself is convinced that he is driving at a higher level now than last season but is just lacking the machinery for the results to reflect it.

See, for instance, Miami, the one race all year that McLaren was a serious contender for victory, where he would not let Kimi Antonelli rest.

And his advantage over Oscar Piastri over recent weeks – an eye-opening 35 seconds separated the McLarens on a hot, low-grip afternoon in Barcelona – makes it hard to believe that Norris was made to look so unsure of himself for much of 2025.

The Belgian Grand Prix seemed to encapsulate his season: Norris and Max Verstappen were the only ones, on one of the few circuits where the drivers can still make a difference, to operate in roughly the same postcode as Antonelli.

It would have been fascinating to see what he could have done with a clean run from third on the grid, the position in which he qualified.

But – wait – here comes a 10-place grid penalty for an engine change to plunge him back into the pack, condemning him to a distant seventh on Sunday.

One step forward, two steps back. It has been that sort of season.

But still, at least he has that trophy sitting at home.

If 2026 is the price Norris has to pay for his triumphant 2025, he would pay it every time.

Max Verstappen in a McLaren? It’s a thrilling thought

Why?

Why would Max Verstappen even consider leaving Red Bull for McLaren?

Does McLaren represent such a clear upgrade that a move would be worth it? What exactly is it that McLaren could offer to Max that Red Bull cannot?

All these questions and more were raised after PlanetF1.com revealed following the British Grand Prix that Verstappen is in advanced talks with McLaren over a potential move.

The answer is simple and, at its root, ultimately comes down to those two fundamentals of motor racing: engine and chassis.

Although the ADUO rankings – more a measure of political acumen than engine power – might suggest otherwise, it has become plain over recent months that the Red Bull Powertrains engine is not the benchmark in 2026.

No, that honour instead belongs to Mercedes. As a record of eight victories from 10 races might suggest.

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And because the works Mercedes team is no longer a serious option for Verstappen – for all his woes, George Russell will almost certainly meet the performance targets required to trigger an automatic contract extension for 2027 – the highest-performing Mercedes customer is the next-best thing.

By its own admission, McLaren has struggled to harness the potential of the Mercedes engine in 2026 and, even at the halfway stage of the season, is still not extracting everything it has to offer.

But rest assured that it is only a matter of time before it does.

And when it does, the chassis will be in a better place too.

Unlike Red Bull, which has shown no sign since Adrian Newey’s departure in 2024 that it can consistently provide a race-winning car, chassis development has been a mark of McLaren’s success over recent years.

Lando Norris may have spoken recently of the 2026 McLaren being the hardest car he has ever driven in Formula 1, yet there have been enough flashes to suggest this is a good enough base for 2027 and beyond.

Now consider this prospect – optimising the best engine, refining the chassis and throwing Max into the mix – and you can see how Verstappen/McLaren could quickly become a powerful combination.

Some at Red Bull used to say that it did not really matter whether the team had the fastest car of all.

With Verstappen, all the team needed was to get close enough to the front for Max’s genius to do the rest.

And from what we have witnessed over the last two years, which team out of McLaren and Red Bull is likely to get him close enough in 2027?

From a similar starting position, it is far easier to imagine McLaren making more progress over the next 12-18 months.

It is a project that simply inspires more confidence than the new-look Red Bull – even before you consider the impending arrival of GianPiero Lambiase, Verstappen’s long-serving race engineer signed by McLaren in April, to add an emotional pull too.

All of this, of course, is not to say that the move will necessarily go through.

Even with his famous exit clause about to come into play – it is mathematically impossible for Verstappen to be in second place in the drivers’ standings at the summer break – it is a complex deal to complete.

Not least when you consider that Oscar Piastri, the driver most likely to be replaced by Verstappen, signed an extension to his contract as recently as last spring.

But, goodness, you can see the logic. You can see why it would tempt him.

Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.

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