Belgian GP predictions: Surprise winner, unexpected podium and early chaos

Spa-Francorchamps has a habit of producing unforgettable races, but Formula 1’s new energy management rules threaten to add an entirely new layer of unpredictability to this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix.

Energy management will be a challenge for all involved, but that does not stop the action at one of Formula 1’s so-called old-school ‘driver’s circuits’. Let’s take a look.

Chaos will dominate the early stages

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By Mat Coch

Chaos threatens to overshadow this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix thanks to the well-documented failings of the F1 2026 regulations.

The fast, sweeping nature of the Spa-Francorchamps circuit will expose the weaknesses of the current generation cars and, in doing so, create chaos at the start of Sunday’s race.

We saw it at Silverstone last time out, albeit in the Sprint, as cars yo-yod back and forth depending on the state of charge of their battery. It made for lots of passing, but none of it was meaningful.

Without a Sprint in Belgium, that learning will instead take place in the race itself, with the battery being over- or under-powered depending how and when it is used.

Eventually it will settle itself down and teams will optimise deployment on the fly, but on the run out of La Source, and back towards Blanchimont two thirds of a lap later, expect chaotic racing with cars passing one another like they’re standing still.

A first Red Bull podium for Isack Hadjar

By Jamie Woodhouse

Max Verstappen’s best Red Bull teammate since Daniel Ricciardo? Isack Hadjar is starting to insert his name into that conversation.

Hadjar gained fresh nods of approval at Silverstone where he outqualified Verstappen and picked up a P5 finish. He is on a five-race run of top six finishes. It is this kind of consistent scoring from the second car which Red Bull has sorely lacked over recent years.

Hadjar came close to that first podium in Monaco, but momentum is building. There is a threat of rain for qualifying. Just the thought of driving these cars in the wet seems to terrify some drivers. It is just that kind of curveball which could open the door for Hadjar to deliver a stellar qualifying result, and go from there.

Plus, that Red Bull internal combustion engine is the best there is, according to the FIA. If energy deployment is going to be such a headache at Spa – Fernando Alonso warned of an entire Sector 2 driven with zero deployment – then Red Bull could be in a good spot.

How might the Belgian Grand Prix unfold this weekend?

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F1 2026 naysayers to voice fresh, and loud, round of criticism

By Henry Valantine

I sigh slightly in writing this, but Spa is likely to be the circuit which has raised the most eyebrows so far in terms of how superclipping will affect proceedings – despite the changes that have already been made to address early concerns.

Personally, I’ve come to agree with Gabriel Bortoleto’s recent assessment that it would be unwise to keep complaining for the next several years, as we now know the underlying parameters of the regulations until they change fully, with incremental changes coming in both 2027 and 2028 to hopefully ease these complaints.

Now the teams have had half a season to get to grips with the best use of deployment, I doubt we’ll get the same yo-yo racing that we saw in Melbourne, with a certain degree of equalisation being natural by now.

However, off-track, I expect some drivers – and fans – to restart complaints about how the new regs are affecting the spectacle, even if the point is somewhat repetitive by now.

I admit, though, that if we see a great corner like Pouhon neutered by recharging needs, I’ll absolutely be saddened by it. Just wait for Monza…

Oh, for what it’s worth, it’ll be Kimi Antonelli on the top step again this weekend, and if it’s a wet qualifying, I wouldn’t rule out Bortoleto and/or Bearman breaking into the top four rows of the grid.

Max Verstappen will drag Red Bull to a surprise win

By Oliver Harden

Watch out for Max Verstappen every time F1 visits a traditional drivers’ circuit this season.

It is at these tracks, where the driver can still (just about) cut through the 2026-style nonsense to make a difference, where Max is irresistible.

We have already seen it this season in Monaco, where he dragged a reluctant Red Bull to second on the grid.

It remains one of the great regrets of 2026 that we were denied seeing what he could do on race day.

The debate around Verstappen’s future intensified after Silverstone, where talk of a Red Bull breakthrough following its Austria upgrade proved premature.

So he will probably need help at Spa. From the weather maybe. Or perhaps a timely safety car.

But winning a race through the sheer force of his spirit, when everyone else has just started to write off Verstappen and Red Bull, is exactly the sort of thing Max would do.

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