A shock home win? Four bold predictions for the Imola GP

Editor 14 May 2025 9:15 AM

Here's what our writers will happen this weekend in Italy.

Formula 1 returns to Europe this weekend with Imola playing host to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix and here’s what we reckon could happen.

From a home winner to the first points for Alonso, here are the PlanetF1.com writers’ bold predictions for this weekend’s race.

Kimi Antonelli takes a home Grand Prix win

By Elizabeth Blackstock

Kimi Antonelli proved that he has pace by snatching a resounding sprint pole position in Miami, and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him. In fact, I think we’re going to see him take a race win at Imola.

Weather will be cool on Friday, and we know that Mercedes is able to best take advantage of its speed in those conditions. While temperatures are going to increase all weekend long, I’m predicting that the home country boost will give Antonelli that last little bit of performance he’ll need to carry his speed into Saturday afternoon and score a pole position.

And, considering how difficult it can be to overtake at the narrow track, I think that with a well-managed strategy. we could see Antonelli hold that pole all the way to the checkered flag.

Max Verstappen to pull off another stormer

by Thomas Maher

It’s 20 years since Fernando Alonso held off Michael Schumacher by just two-tenths of a second, holding off a much faster car as Schumacher’s Bridgestones came to life in a year where that didn’t happen very often.

Verstappen has explained that his best chances of victories this year will come at tracks where overtaking is difficult and, while Imola is definitely easier than it was in 2005 thanks to the removal of the final chicane, it’s still a track at which passing comes at a premium.

Much has been made about McLaren’s tyre advantage over a race distance but, in qualifying, this advantage is much smaller. If Verstappen can produce more magic to take pole position, Imola is a track at which he does have a chance – however slim – of being able to hold off attacks.

There is a sense of inevitability about how this year is going to play out but, until the answer of whether Barcelona’s rule changes have a tangible effect on the pecking order is reached, the Dutch driver just has to hang gamely on through these races.

Knowing that the full story of this year isn’t yet told, I wouldn’t be surprised if he produces more magic at Imola (and Monaco) to keep things interesting.

First points for Fernando Alonso

By Michelle Foster

Fernando Alonso will shrug off his worst start to a Formula 1 championship since his McLaren days with a top-ten result at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

Although there has been little sign of late of the Spaniard and Aston Martin getting it right, the driver going as far as to say it feels like there are “always some challenges”, Alonso didn’t win two World titles with a defeatist attitude. It is a case of when, not if, he scores his first points of the championship.

The double World Champion’s chances at Imola will be bolstered by mixed weather, a wet/dry weekend on the cards with rain also forecast for the Grand Prix while Adrian Newey is reportedly already having a “huge influence” on Aston Martin.

I’m not predicting a Grand Prix victory, not even a podium, but he will finish inside the top ten come Sunday afternoon. A bit of chaos and a lot of talent. That’s what will work for him at Imola.

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Lando Norris to miss out on the podium

By Sam Cooper

This has the feeling of a make-or-break time not just for Lando Norris’ season but even his whole career.

Piastri’s run of form has seen him become the clear title favourite and Norris is now in need of a statement performance.

However, desperation can lead to mistakes so I could see him making an error somewhere in the weekend that has serious consequences.

Whether that be in the race itself or quali, some part of me reckons Norris will miss out on the podium this weekend.