Canadian GP predictions: Russell collision, McLaren breakthrough, Mercedes turning point

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal will host this weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix, the fifth round of the F1 2026 season.

George Russell heads to Canada under pressure with the Mercedes driver trailing teammate Kimi Antonelli by 20 points. Here are our writers’ predictions ahead of race day…

Kimi Antonelli headlines Mercedes’ last one-two of F1 2026

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By Michelle Foster

Kimi Antonelli will headline a Mercedes 1-2 at the Canadian Grand Prix in a dominant display of engine power and upgrades – but it will be Mercedes’ last one-two finish of the F1 2026 championship.

While Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull all brought several upgrades to the Miami Grand Prix, Mercedes held off in a strategic move to finesse the parts in the factory and ensure that every one of the upgrades that they bring to the track does what the box says.

And yet Mercedes still won the Miami Grand Prix.

Antonelli converted his third successive pole position into a third successive grand prix win. And without any significant updates.

He was made to work for it by McLaren’s Lando Norris, but now that Mercedes has a significant update in Canada, one can expect the Brackley squad to pull clear and re-establish its dominance at the front.

And Antonelli will once again have the measure of Russell in the Mercedes intra-team fight. Although Russell won the race last season, he was only a second ahead of Antonelli who this year has found his mojo in buckets’ full.

A third grand prix one-two of the season is on the cards, but it will be the last as Mercedes’ power advantage will be marginally negated after Montreal when F1’s Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) comes into play.

Result: Antonelli, Russell, Norris.

George Russell will find the wall at some stage

By Oliver Harden

The obvious temptation is to say that George Russell will come back hard at Kimi Antonelli this weekend.

After all, G-RUS has set pole position in Canada for the last two years, collecting a fine victory in 2025.

And yet it’s alarming how, well… ordinary he’s looked compared to Kimi since starting this season with a win in Australia.

Increasingly it feels as though he is falling into the same trap so many other drivers – including Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel – have over the years, being confronted by a talented young teammate, full of vim and vigour, who’s starting to show up a few flaws in his driving.

Certainly, it did not reflect well on Russell in Miami when he simply shrugged his shoulders and put his struggles down to the low-grip surface, as if there was simply nothing he could do about it.

Try putting a little less energy through the tyres, George? Just a thought.

The longer this funk of his continues, the greater the risk that he will be lured into overdriving as the pressure builds.

Recall that his retirement in Montreal in 2023 – and his messy, error-prone drive in the wet the following year – were products of poor judgement under pressure.

If Antonelli maintains his recent standards this weekend, there will be a wall around here with Russell’s name on it.

Lando Norris ends Mercedes domination

By Mat Coch

The writing has been on the wall since Japan, when Oscar Piastri was desperately unlucky not to win the race in Suzuka.

In Miami, McLaren was again the nearest challenger to Mercedes and Lando Norris delivered the first non-Mercedes win of the season in the Sprint.

Heading into Canada, there’s no reason to suggest that trend will not continue.

And so, while George Russell won the Canadian Grand Prix a year ago, ahead of a pair of McLarens that engaged in a spot of friendly fire in the closing laps, I expect the papaya pair to feature prominently.

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More than that, I would not be surprised if Norris comes out swinging and takes his first grand prix win of 2026.

There have been promising signs out of the Woking squad and Norris has begun to gel with the car in such a way that I don’t see the same level of domination from Mercedes this weekend.

Russell will no doubt be looking to fight back after losing three times on the bounce, most recently at a self-confessed bogey track, and I expect he’ll have the edge over Kimi Antonelli this weekend.

I can see Lando Norris winning the Canadian Grand Prix from Russell and Antonelli, with Piastri in fourth.

George Russell returns to the title fight

By Sam Cooper

Even when Mercedes was at its poorest, Canada has always been a track that treated them well.

In the 11 events since 2014 there has been at least one Mercedes driver on the podium and I think there will be two this weekend.

For George Russell, it represents a huge weekend in not only his season but his whole career as a once ‘easy’ Championship is slipping away from him.

Antonelli leads by 20 points and has put together a hat-trick of wins.

Meanwhile, Russell has not been on the podium since China. You get the sense it is now or never for the 28-year-old Briton.

He can take confidence in that Montreal has been one of his best tracks and he completed a pole-to-win race last season.

Mercedes is also bringing its first major upgrade package of the season and as the more experienced driver, you would fancy Russell to get to grips with that quicker than his younger teammate.

Russell to get one back as Mercedes asserts dominance

By Henry Valantine

We’re at the stage of the season where teams have fully identified their underlying issues relative to their competitors, so upgrades are likely to be targeted at weaknesses in a more efficient way.

With that, the majority of the grid has already confirmed more upgrades will be on the way in Canada after a tranche of developments were brought last time out in Miami.

The frightening thing for teams other than Mercedes is that the Silver Arrows still won in Miami with only minor updates having been brought and a larger upgrade package due in Montréal.

The main obstacle facing Mercedes’ rivals is not just outdeveloping the championship leaders, it’s outdeveloping at an even faster rate to be able to overhaul the W17.

It might be possible over a longer period of time, but I can’t see it happening immediately.

As for how the Mercedes drivers will compare, both were on the podium in Canada last season.

Irrelevant now, of course, given the new regulations, but I think George Russell will look to up his game even further now he knows he doesn’t ‘top dog’ status all to himself.

Russell has yet to win more than once at the same circuit in his career, but he’ll rediscover a bit of what he was missing in Miami to get another win on the board.

Lando Norris heads a McLaren one-two finish

By Jamie Woodhouse

History has taught us that when McLaren brings an upgrade, expect good things.

There are rumblings of another package for the MCL40 arriving in Montreal.

McLaren took a clear step forward in Miami, and in the event of a Montreal follow-up package, the papaya squad could unlock another level from its challenger.

Of course, Mercedes was the outlier of the frontrunners in Miami having not brought any upgrades. That changes in Canada.

Yet Mercedes will need to prove that it can find performance gamechangers in this era, something the team did not always achieve in the ground-effect days.

While I don’t expect McLaren to suddenly dominate Mercedes in Canada, I am backing McLaren to secure a one-two finish, Lando Norris the victor ahead of Oscar Piastri, after a race in which Mercedes keeps its customer honest.

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