Data reveals how Red Bull’s Championship hopes are in serious jeopardy

Red Bull continues in the lead of the F1 2024 Constructors’ Championship. However, it appears to be only a matter of time before McLaren overtakes the Milton Keynes-based team if they fail to introduce an upgrade that will see Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez’s RB20 challenger make a performance leap.

The Constructors’ Championship trophy is in serious jeopardy for Red Bull. After winning with ease in 2022 and 2023, teams have found the optimal development path for their cars while Red Bull has virtually reached the peak of its performance development – and have a driver in Perez really struggling to contribute.

The rise of McLaren as Red Bull’s biggest threat

McLaren now has a car that is more dominant in virtually every area, with its slow speed corner performance and corner exit traction standing out.

Only Red Bull still has a slight advantage in top speed thanks to the lower drag of the RB20, which gives it greater aero efficiency on straights.

An advantage that was reflected clearly during qualifying in Belgium in wet conditions. Still, in race pace and dry conditions, the field is even more equal with Mercedes also entering the fray in the final races before the summer break.

Despite this change of hegemony, Red Bull is still first in the Championship. But Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris are the most consistent driver pairing over the last five races of the calendar. Only Ferrari has had worse numbers than Red Bull.

McLaren has scored 44 points more than Red Bull in the last five races, that is 8.8 points more on average per race. The Max Verstappen ‘effect’ has also helped to reduce these losses in the face of the poor performance of Sergio Perez, who has only scored 21.81% of Red Bull’s points since the Spanish GP.

As we can see the Red Bull driver pairing is clearly the most unbalanced, followed by Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. However, Russell’s data is affected by his unexpected retirement at the British GP and disqualification at the Belgian GP. They do not really reflect the pretty equal performance of the Mercedes drivers.

Despite these worrying numbers, Red Bull has decided to keep Sergio Perez alongside Max Verstappen after the summer break. Certainly, no other Red Bull driver has done enough to merit a seat in the second best car on the grid at the moment.

Still, keeping the Mexican driver and opting for continuity could see Red Bull lose the Constructors’ Championship if Perez does not regain his form straight back from the summer break. Even Ferrari could be a threat now that Charles Leclerc seems to have recovered from his recent dip in form.

Right now in the summer break, Red Bull’s lead over McLaren is 42 points, 63 points over Ferrari and 142 points over Mercedes. The Silver Arrows have come into the battle perhaps too late to win it, but lay a good foundation for 2025.

Looking at all the data and analysing the trends of the first 14 races of the calendar, it seems reasonable to say that Red Bull is at high risk of losing the Constructors’ Championship.

Only an immediate reaction from Sergio Perez or an update to the RB20 that allows Max Verstappen to clearly dominate again, and Perez to continually fight inside the top five, can save the Milton Keynes team.

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