Dutch GP predictions: Pain for Lawson and Tsunoda, Aston Martin long shot, McLaren upgrade attack

The 12th round of the F1 2026 season will take place at this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.

How will Aston Martin’s upgraded Honda engine fare on its race debut? And how will Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda fare at Red Bull and Racing Bulls respectively? Here are our writers’ predictions for the Netherlands…

No points for Aston Martin, a final home win for Max Verstappen

By Michelle Foster

A lot of the headlines in the build-up to the Dutch Grand Prix have been all about Aston Martin and its new-spec Honda engine.

While the revised AMR26 chassis saw Fernando Alonso reach Q2 in Hungary, he was still over a second down on the top ten.

Even if the Aston-Honda package gains half a second, Alonso would – based on the times from Budapest – make up one solitary position.

And racing from P15 to P10, even for a driver of Alonso’s calibre, is more of a long-shot than a possibility for Aston Martin.

As such, while it would be nice to predict an Aston Martin point at Zandvoort, that – even with the new power unit – will be a step too far.

Gains, but no points, is the prediction and, to be honest, probably also the realistic target for Aston Martin.

There will, however, be champagne celebrations for one of the four world champions on the current grid – Max Verstappen.

Red Bull’s recent on-track gains, which have yielded back-to-back podiums for Verstappen in Belgium and Hungary, will continue to pay off with a first race win of the season for the Dutch champion on home soil.

While one can never question Verstappen’s commitment, no matter the venue or situation, this weekend’s race will be the last time he will compete at home for several years at least.

That will provide added motivation for a driver who is chomping at the bit as he pushes Red Bull to give its all – and then give more.

Despite the expected downshifts and energy deployment complaints, Verstappen will win the Dutch Grand Prix.

And Red Bull will breathe a sigh of relief.

Extra McLaren upgrades to pay dividends

By Henry Valantine

There can be no doubting that McLaren, albeit a team which has been strong in Hungary in the past, appeared to make a step forward with its updates in Budapest last time out.

Lando Norris, too, appeared as comfortable behind the wheel as we have seen him this season as he raced to a first win of 2026.

With the team bringing further upgrades to the rear wing and brake ducts of the MCL40, which will effectively complete the package it introduced last time out, I see no reason why Norris or Oscar Piastri cannot be in the hunt for victory.

Both are winners around Zandvoort before (Piastri may feel he needs to lay down something of a marker if he can as well).

If the evidence of the last few seasons shows anything, it’s that when McLaren brings upgrades, they are both targeted and, crucially, effective.

One swallow does not make a summer and one win does not make a resurgence.

But on a circuit with a fairly similar profile to the Hungaroring in places, it could be another weekend for McLaren to shine.

Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda will both fall in Q1

By Oliver Harden

Isack Hadjar’s injury makes for a fascinating test of Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda this weekend.

It was argued in 2025 that they never stood a chance in a car honed over many years to suit Max Verstappen’s technique.

So how will Lawson in particular fare in a car built to a new set of rules in which, despite its obvious limitations, Verstappen’s teammate has been quick on occasion in 2026?

Hadjar has been patchy and is crying out for a clean weekend or two. But unlike his predecessors, at least he hasn’t disgraced himself.

It does not help Lawson and Tsunoda that Zandvoort is a sprint weekend.

Hadjar’s absence has opened up an unexpected opportunity for both men and this will doubtless be framed as a chance for Lawson and Tsunoda to re-energise their F1 careers.

But it will be some achievement if the pair, with limited practice time in unfamiliar machinery, manage to shine.

The challenges facing them at the Dutch Grand Prix are so steep to be insurmountable.

Lawson will continue his unfortunate trend of never making it out of Q1 as a Red Bull driver, with Tsunoda anonymous on his return to a race seat.

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