McLaren v Ferrari v Mercedes: Decoding the first F1 2025 race sim data

McLaren carried on the good momentum of the 2024 season to beat Ferrari and Mercedes in the first real race simulation of the pre-season tests in Bahrain. 

The Woking-based team, with Lando Norris behind the wheel of the MCL39, showed plenty of solidity, low degradation and strong pace against Charles Leclerc and Andrea Kimi Antonelli.

F1 Testing 2025: Breaking down the race sim data

Despite not topping the timesheets on the second day of pre-season, the race simulation lap times put McLaren as the leading force in the same tone as last season.

Ferrari appear to have taken a small step back, but Leclerc showed the smallest variation between his lap times on C1, C2 and C3 tyres, indicating that there is certainly pace to unlock in the brand-new SF-25 of the Monegasque driver and Lewis Hamilton.

Norris was +0.537s per lap quicker on average than Leclerc and +0.591s quicker than Antonelli in their full race simulation. Although the fuel loads and engine mode maps used are unknown, it is clear that this test carried out by the teams is one of the most accurate to assess the real pace ahead of the start of the season.

If we break down this overall pace graphically, we can see a very solid McLaren, especially in the last stint with the C2. A very consistent Ferrari, but far from McLaren’s pace and a Mercedes with high degradation with the C3 compound and somewhat erratic with the harder compounds.

If we correct in the lap times, assuming 105 kilograms of fuel for the 57 laps of the race simulation, we can confirm the issues of Mercedes with the C3 compound.

On the other hand, with the C2 compound, McLaren improved their pace as the laps went by. Something that is usual in testing when there is still pace to unlock and where we can appreciate this false symptom of ‘negative degradation’.

As McLaren has done with the C2, Ferrari did the same with the C1 tyre, trying to keep the tyre life as constant as possible. This is something that the teams often do to evaluate their target lap times for a desired degradation and also indirectly to hide their real pace.

At the start of the race simulation, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes were running on the C3 medium compound from the Pirelli range. Lando Norris was more than three-tenths faster on average per lap than Leclerc and Antonelli, with the Ferrari driver having the shortest stint and as we saw before, with very constant lap times and little degradation.

After the first pit stop, Leclerc and Antonelli fitted the C2 tyre. Norris was on the C1, the hardest compound. Despite this, McLaren was visibly quicker and more solid in equal fuel conditions. This is the greatest symptom of the apparent superiority of the papaya team at this early stage.

After the last stop, with a softer compound than Leclerc and Antonelli, Norris was a real rocket. A second per lap quicker than the Ferrari and Mercedes drivers, made a statement that the 2024 champion team comes with batteries recharged to at least start the 2025 season on the right foot.

Mercedes doesn’t seem to have yet found the right key to really confirm itself as one of the powers to fight for the Championship.

Despite this, these are early days.

The last day of practice will provide us with many more numbers to analyse the long run performances and, hopefully, some qualifying simulations that will also allow us to evaluate the ‘pure’ one lap performance of the teams.

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