Italian GP predictions: Antonelli disaster, McLaren surprise, civil war breaks out

The 13th round of the F1 2026 season will take place this weekend with the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.

How will Kimi Antonelli fare with an engine penalty? Will Antonelli’s punishment open the door for George Russell to return to winning ways? And can Lando Norris and McLaren keep up their encouraging recent form? Our writers cast their predictions for Italy…

Kimi Antonelli disaster with three different teams on the podium

By Michelle Foster

Out of all the drivers on the F1 grid, none has grown, improved or come into his own like Kimi Antonelli has done in the last 12 months.

The Italian is emerging – some would even argue that he has emerged – as a genuine Formula 1 championship winner.

But has he emerged as an Italian GP winner? That remains to be seen.

He may be beyond his years in many ways on the track, but at Monza, that’s a whole different level of pressure for Italy’s only F1 driver. And, to be honest, Italy’s only driver capable of winning a world title since, well, almost forever.

But when the going gets tough, really tough, Antonelli has yet to figure that part out despite the calming voice of Bono.

With a grid penalty to take, I don’t believe he will be on the podium come Sunday.

Instead, McLaren and Ferrari fight for the top honours against George Russell. And it is the latter who will have the power advantage.

Russell will win the race for Mercedes and will be joined on the podium by a McLaren driver and a Ferrari driver.

As for Antonelli, DNF.

The championship battle starts here

By Mat Coch

Kimi Antonelli remains favourite for the F1 2026 world championship. He holds a 59-point advantage over Lewis Hamilton and George Russell which gives him a handy margin.

But wind the clock back just a year; Oscar Piastri was similarly comfortable and it all fell apart. Could history repeat?

Russell is more comfortable and there are mounting challenges from Ferrari and McLaren, or more specifically Lando Norris.

Where earlier in the season it was easy – go out, maximise as best you can and the result will sort itself out – things now become… complicated.

When does Antonelli defend, how much risk does he adopt, does his pit under that safety car for tyres or take track position over title rivals? Every decision from here on has more weight.

The first half of the season was about building the foundation. Now it’s about ring fencing that, and maximising not just the session, or the race, but the season as a whole.

To do that on home soil just after our 20th birthday? It creates the sort of theatre that keeps us all on the edge of our seats.

Kimi Antonelli surges back to the podium

By Jamie Woodhouse

Ideal timing? Absolutely not.

The championship leader would surely not have liked the sound of an engine penalty at his home race, but Mercedes has made that decision knowing the overtaking opportunities here are plentiful.

With a fresh Mercedes power unit in the back, on a track starved of energy, and with the home crowd roaring him on, I’m backing Antonelli to go from the back, to a podium finish at the Italian Grand Prix. P3.

Lando Norris and McLaren appear to be on the charge, so maximising the points finishes could make or break Antonelli’s title race as Mercedes readies its response with W17 upgrades.

McLaren to dispel doubt for three on the bounce

By Henry Valantine

McLaren surged to the front at two circuits where, historically, the team has shown high levels of performance in recent years, with Andrea Stella having acknowledged that Monza will be the litmus test for how far it has progressed.

Now holding a much better understanding of the Mercedes power unit, having put together its own team from within to try and piece together what Mercedes HPP has not provided, that will be crucial at Monza of all places.

There can be no doubting that Lando Norris has taken a step forward, too.

He now appears to be driving with the freedom and relaxation that comes with being a world champion, which naturally brings with it its own confidence to push that step further.

I will not count Oscar Piastri out of this one, with two consecutive podiums of his own at Monza, but with McLaren possessing that combination of successful upgrades and an in-form driver, not to mention Antonelli’s back-of-the-grid penalty, George Russell will have to dig deep to stop them.

The qualifying tow will plunge a team into civil war

By Oliver Harden

Behind Monaco, is there a better qualifying hour of the season than Monza?

The sight of two teammates working together to give each other a tow is irresistible. Especially when it goes horribly, horribly wrong.

These are the moments when drivers can either choose to work together – or stab each other in the back.

The tale of 2019, when Charles Leclerc didn’t try as hard as he might have done to give Sebastian Vettel a helping hand, still lingers in the memory.

A quick glance suggests there is plenty of combustibility potential in qualifying this weekend.

With Kimi Antonelli taking an engine penalty, will Mercedes insist that he reaches Q3 anyway to give George Russell (who should – should – win here comfortably) all the help he needs to set pole?

If so, would Antonelli play ball to benefit his nearest threat for the title?

Or take Ferrari, where with one Mercedes down Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton will both fancy their chances of a home win for Ferrari this weekend.

A year on from the most ludicrous team order drama in F1 history, will Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri play nice again this time?

Or how about further back, where tensions between Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad, and Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon, have been simmering away all season?

A trembling bottom lip or two after qualifying would do very nicely indeed.

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