Japan GP predictions: Hamilton beats Leclerc, Verstappen heroics, Russell’s big battle

The third round of the F1 2026 season will take place this weekend with the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka.

Can Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli build on his maiden victory in China last time out? How will Max Verstappen fare at a circuit where he has been unbeaten recently? And what of the battle between Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc at Ferrari? The PlanetF1.com crew submit their predictions for Japan…

Max Verstappen on the podium

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By Jamie Woodhouse

That may seem like a long shot after Red Bull’s troubles in China, but there are a few factors at play here which make a Max Verstappen Japanese GP podium far from impossible.

Firstly, Verstappen is the modern-day king of Suzuka. He was won this race four years in a row.

Max Verstappen vs Isack Hadjar: Red Bull head-to-head stats for F1 2026 season

F1 2026: Head-to-head qualifying statistics between teammates

F1 2026: Head-to-head race statistics between teammates

Secondly, Verstappen had the chance to reset after his post-China obliteration of the F1 2026 regs.

He went and dabbled in some GT3 action and would have been part of the winning team, had it not been for that unfortunate tyre miscount.

So, returning to the F1 scene, Verstappen will either be refreshed, or be reminded that he is not feeling these rules. I’ll back the former to play out.

Mercedes will prove out of reach around this high-power track, but Verstappen will show his Suzuka credentials again and complete the podium.

Top-five finish for Pierre Gasly

By Sam Cooper

Away from the dominance of Mercedes, the unreliability of McLaren and Williams and the whatever is going on at Aston Martin, Alpine has had a quietly impressive start to the season, in particular with Pierre Gasly.

He scored points in the opening race, something he did just once in the first eight last year, and followed that up with P6 in China, equalling his joint-best result since the podium in Sao Paulo in 2024.

Looking ahead, I think he could do rather well this weekend given Suzuka is a high-power track and the Mercedes engine looks the best on that front, even if the customer teams have not sussed it out as much as the works one has.

Doing so would be a big step for Gasly who has scored points here just two times in his previous seven attempts but I think he finally has the tools to do so this time round.

A new level for Antonelli as Mercedes march continues

By Mat Coch

How often have we seen a driver achieve their first F1 win, only to almost immediately snag their second?

Kimi Antonelli accomplished one of his life’s ambitions in China, and the confidence boost that will have given him will make him stronger than ever before.

The Mercedes is the class of the field, both in terms of its power unit but also its chassis. That makes it difficult to look beyond Antonelli or teammate George Russell for the win.

While George has been in fine form himself, I believe the boost from that Chinese GP success will help Antonelli take another step in his development.

Again, I’d expect Ferrari to be there, and perhaps McLaren a touch closer given it’s had more time to analyse the Mercedes power unit data, but I suspect it will be a tough weekend for Red Bull.

As it will for Aston Martin, and Honda, which faces an uncomfortable few days on home soil for the power unit manufacturer.

Two Ferrari drivers on the podium

By Michelle Foster

This season’s first two races may have been George and Antonelli, or Antonelli and George, joined by a Ferrari driver, but for Suzuka, it will be a Mercedes in P1 and a double Ferrari podium.

Mercedes has THE car/engine combo of F1 2026. The W17 is in a league of its own and I don’t see anyone catching up right now, and probably not until either ADUO (Assisted Development and Upgrade Opportunities) kicks in after race six or the compression ratio measurement changes on June 1.

But Mercedes is not infallible – the car, the engine or the drivers.

Antonelli has crashed and had an in-race penalty while Russell has had car and engine troubles. These all-new machines aren’t easy to keep on track.

I predict further issues for Mercedes in Japan, whether that be driver, engine or car, and it will result in Ferrari’s first double podium of the season.

For a bonus point, Hamilton ahead of Leclerc.

Although Leclerc won’t be impressed that Hamilton was stronger in China and beat him to the podium, an unhappy Leclerc can at times lead to mistakes from the driver whereas Hamilton is a five-time Suzuka winner.

Kimi Antonelli to notch another win

By Henry Valantine

Am I mad for thinking Kimi Antonelli can go back-to-back and make it two on the bounce after notching his first win last time out?

In a race largely dominated by Max Verstappen and the two McLarens last year at Suzuka, it was Antonelli who finished with the fastest lap (becoming the youngest driver to achieve that honour, while also being the youngest ever driver to lead a lap).

Yes, George Russell was still one place ahead that weekend, but there is no doubt the young Italian will feel emboldened after a measured drive to victory in China.

What has impressed me most so far about him is the fact he’s not batting away talk of a potential title fight either, instead taking a diplomatic but steely stance, learning as much as he can along the way.

He said in Australia: “I’ve got to be ready if the opportunity comes. I really hope I will be in that position to fight for the championship, but, of course, it’s very early stages, and I just need to keep my head down and just keep working hard.

“I think also keeping the focus on the ultimate goal, and how to reach the goal without overthinking too much about the outcome. But I would really like that, so I’ll just try to make sure I’m in that position.”

There is still an awfully long way to go, but Russell will have an increasing battle on his hands if his teammate’s trajectory remains as it is.

Suzuka will spark a serious conversation about the F1 2026 rules

By Oliver Harden

Did we detect a sense of acceptance back in China?

A feeling that the 2026 rules are still not great, but they are what they are and that we must all just get on with it now?

Expect Suzuka to blow that sentiment apart this weekend.

Just how will this circuit and the challenge it presents – comfortably the greatest on today’s F1 calendar – be altered with the arrival of the 2026 cars?

Run through a lap in your mind and it’s not hard to imagine not-so-super clipping reducing every one of these great corners to charging stations.

This is why I believe the conversation about where F1 is heading will go up a notch this weekend as the drivers – inevitably led by the heroic Max Verstappen, the only one with the courage to air reservations about 2026 from the very start – make their displeasure clearer than ever.

If you already thought these rules were bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

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