Did Max Verstappen play the ultimate 4D chess move with Mexican GP penalties?

While sixth place might not be what Max Verstappen hoped for in Mexico, did the Red Bull driver actually achieve his objective?

Having qualified in second place for the Mexico City Grand Prix, Verstappen could only manage sixth place as he picked up two punishing time penalties for his transgressions racing Lando Norris.

Did Max Verstappen actually achieve his objective in Mexico City Grand Prix?

As the F1 2024 season ticks into November, it’s been a remarkable season of incredible swings and roundabouts. From dominance for Red Bull in the opening quarter of the season to being unable to win a Grand Prix since June, Verstappen is entering the final races of the year knowing he’s on the back foot.

Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari have all taken turns looking like F1’s fastest car and, entering the final handful of races, it’s a toss-up as to whether it’s Ferrari or McLaren who now hold the upper hand as the sport’s most historic teams look like the only contenders for the Constructors’ Championship, despite Red Bull’s proximity.

Verstappen is duly attempting to land his fourth consecutive Drivers’ Championship with a car that is the third or fourth-fastest on the grid on any given weekend, and that’s in his hands – the Red Bull could be considered a lowly midfield machine if it had two Sergio Perezs behind the wheel.

Verstappen’s position right now is somewhat similar to 2021 in that he is on the back foot. While 2021’s immense title fight with Lewis Hamilton was much closer points-wise, Hamilton and Verstappen had the top positions all to themselves. This year, Verstappen has a healthier points lead, but a car seemingly incapable of victories and, sometimes, podiums.

In the final races of 2021, it would be difficult to argue that it was Mercedes and Hamilton who were enjoying the better performance overall, and that very much affected the approach Verstappen took to the decisive rounds at the tail end of the championship – an approach that he’s replicating this year.

This was evident in Brazil, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi – on pure pace, the Mercedes W12 was the quicker car and it led to some undignifying moments from Verstappen.

These included that divebomb on Hamilton in Brazil, and the remarkably hostile Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in which Verstappen kept making it very clear to the Mercedes driver that he was perfectly willing to have a collision to achieve what he wanted – to preserve his slender points lead.

No longer able to fight for wins this year, Verstappen is performing miracles to get himself in the mix in qualifying and is then setting out to make himself as disruptive as possible for Norris – all while making it clear that the British driver simply must back off if he wants to keep his car intact.

After all, an incident taking both out of contention only benefits Verstappen at this point of the season – a major psychological win for the Dutch driver, as Norris is forced to back out of any moves that could endanger his car. This played out perfectly for Verstappen in the United States, who used this knowledge and all his clever cunning to goad Norris into a critical error of judgment as he overtook Verstappen off track.

A legitimate, if unpretty, defence in the United States fuelled headlines all week heading to Mexico, but that inelegant move paled into insignificance as Verstappen engaged in more egregious tactics at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.

While the Turn 4 move could be seen as mere aggression, the Turn 8 example was a textbook example of a driver with little regard for his own race and whose only concern is in harming what his rival is doing – after all, Verstappen showed no such desperation in his fight with Sainz, as the Spaniard is largely irrelevant to his championship.

But, despite his penalties, did Verstappen actually benefit from his aggression in Mexico?

If costing Norris points is Verstappen’s aim, then he theoretically achieved it – meaning it’s a net win for Verstappen, even if his points lead shrank.

Having cost Norris significant time through their battle, as well as ensuring the McLaren ended up behind Charles Leclerc, the McLaren finished tantalisingly close to Sainz at the chequered flag – had Verstappen not proven disruptive, Norris could well have been the five seconds closer he needed to be to the leader and put his former teammate under pressure for the race win.

For argument’s sake, given the respective performance levels of the cars, let’s assume Verstappen knew his Red Bull couldn’t keep up with the McLaren or the Ferrari on race day and that a fourth place was his theoretical best result. In that scenario, with Norris winning, Verstappen would have lost 13 points to his championship rival.

A collision damaging Norris, or even taking him out, would only benefit Verstappen, while costing Norris the chance of a win also lowered the bar of what Verstappen needed to achieve to negate the championship loss. With sixth place and Norris in second, Verstappen only lost 10 points – a better result championship-wise even if, race-wise, it was worse.

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Norris must be under no illusions that this is the mentality Verstappen is taking into the final races of their battle.

It’s quite the mindset switch, after all, as most drivers set out to race by achieving the best result possible for them and their team by placing as highly as possible.

This is what Norris is still trying to do, but all Verstappen is concerned about is achieving the best possible result for himself by scoring what he can while sapping Norris of his own potential.

It’s the exact approach he used in 2021 while up against the marginally faster Hamilton/Mercedes package in his first proper championship bid, and 2024 vintage Verstappen shows that the last two years have not changed him one iota.

Is it effective? It’s difficult to argue against at this point, as Verstappen has clearly weighed up the risk/reward ratio to make this approach work for him. The window of opportunity for Norris is shrinking, rapidly, and it seems quite likely that, the instant the title is wrapped up, Verstappen will immediately resume being the usual deft and clever wheelsman he usually is.

As I wrote last week, Verstappen has spent the last decade using his approach to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals – only Hamilton and Leclerc have shown they are not cowed by this. With Verstappen and Norris’ friendship being firmly strained by this season, Norris is discovering the lengths to which the Dutch driver will go to ensure his championship win. The big question is whether there will be a major flashpoint before this title is decided, or whether Verstappen will ease his lead home before that likelihood fades.

Of course, the major problem with all of this is in the fairness of Verstappen’s driving. A tough and unyielding driver at the best of times, his resolution that Norris is not getting by him without a fight is leading to questionable antics. Whilst his move in Austin was legal, it soured what had been a brilliant display of pressure from Norris and of pressure resistance from Verstappen.

In Mexico, there were no positives from race day to latch onto – once it was clear his car wasn’t in the winning window, he set out to compromise Norris’ race and duly did so. It was a cold and ruthless display, and it was brutally effective.

But just how far is Verstappen willing to go?

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