McLaren data shows why ‘papaya rules’ need to change – and very soon

McLaren’s position of racing fairly with ‘papaya rules’ may be commendable, but is the team costing itself a real chance at the championships?

After handing victory to Ferrari at the Italian Grand Prix, McLaren finds itself in a difficult position internally. The Woking-based team has the best car and two drivers hungry to win races, although, at the moment, only Lando Norris looks like a strong candidate to fight for the F1 2024 Championship against Max Verstappen.

Does McLaren need to establish a new status quo?

Oscar Piastri showed at Monza that he is not going to let Norris’ World title ambitions stop him from achieving his own targets. The Australian driver, within the framework set by the ‘papaya rules’, attacked his teammate aggressively, but cleanly and with this move he prevented Norris from being in the best position to fight for the win at Monza.

Now, with the Constructors’ Championship on the horizon thanks to having the best car on the grid, why doesn’t McLaren establish a firm status between its two drivers? Why not help and benefit Lando Norris to try and catch Max Verstappen before the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?

It seems so logical on the face of it, but there are probably a lot of hidden details that escape us. Nico Rosberg recently speculated on the Sky F1 podcast that Oscar Piastri has a contract negotiated with McLaren that would secure him a status equal to that of Lando Norris.

It is likely, if this is true, to be a clause in Piastri’s McLaren contract that Mark Webber, his manager, has influenced to avoid situations like the Multi-21 scenario that he himself experienced with Sebastian Vettel back in his years with Red Bull.

But as we cannot confirm contractual situations, let’s see the objective data and evidence to support McLaren’s decision to keep their current ‘papaya rules’ and not to give Lando Norris a priority status with eight races – and three Sprints – to finish the F1 2024 season and at a distance of 62 points from Max Verstappen.

Oscar Piastri is 44 points behind Lando Norris in the Drivers’ World Championship and 24 points behind Charles Leclerc. It’s not a truly abysmal gap. And just as we still believe that Norris can be World Champion… Piastri also has a mathematical chance to be one. It’s difficult, yes, but it’s not definitive yet.

 These figures could be even more remarkable if Piastri had enjoyed better luck in some races: the unexpected Safety Car in Miami and the subsequent contact with Carlos Sainz that left him without points, the qualifying penalty in Austria, the unnecessary extra lap on dry tyres on a wet Silverstone circuit…

But, at the end of the day, these are events that happen in racing and are part of the sport. Luck also plays a part at times. But what is clear is that the Australian driver has clearly taken a step forward from the 2023 season. More importantly, his development over the course of this year has been remarkable.

In the last five races, McLaren drivers have scored the most points with Norris and Piastri tied on 85. McLaren is in a great position to pass Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship as soon as Azerbaijan.

In the direct comparison with Norris, it is clear that the British driver has the better numbers. However, as mentioned above, Piastri has taken a step up from his first season in F1. In addition, his race performances have been quite impressive.

So, looking at all these numbers… Why doesn’t McLaren give priority to Lando Norris over Oscar Piastri? The truth is that in all fairness and in a utopian world, yes, Piastri is deserving of equal treatment to Norris. His performance on track, and his progression as the races go on, speak for themselves.

But, let’s be honest, Formula 1 is never – and never will be – fair. It is the essence of a fierce and cruel sport where the winner is the one who is able to fight mercilessly against his rivals, as well as having a car that allows him to do so. And, in this sense, McLaren should be cruel and not give Max Verstappen a single chance if they really want to beat the Red Bull driver.

That’s the big question for McLaren: maintain an equal – but not necessarily calm – atmosphere within the team knowing that Norris won’t complain about not getting superior treatment for the time being, or be somewhat ‘cruel’ to Piastri by maximising Norris’ chances of becoming World Champion?

With the trend of points scored in the last five races applied to the final rounds of the calendar, the World Championship would end in Abu Dhabi with the current positions. Max Verstappen would hold off Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri would finish in fourth position very close to Charles Leclerc, but without overtaking him.

Currently, Oscar Piastri is 106 points behind Max Verstappen with eight races and three Sprint races remaining in the season. That is 232 points at stake, counting the fastest race laps.

Piastri would have to be perfect and Max Verstappen would have to retire in at least four races for the Australian driver to overtake him. It is a very difficult scenario and therefore both McLaren and Piastri himself should be realistic. Something different has to be done.

Therefore, it would be more than justified at this point of the season for McLaren to start giving more facilities to Norris, who also has a complicated but much more realistic scenario. And with McLaren’s current superiority over Red Bull, it is no longer such a remote possibility.

Norris has been typically honest and said he doesn’t want any help to be World Champion. But then why was there so much drama in Hungary when McLaren undercut Piastri with Norris?

Why was there so much pressure on Norris to give the position back by insinuating that he would need help from both the team and Piastri to fight for the World Championship later on if he wasn’t really going to get that help?

These are questions that only McLaren can answer and will have to do so on track should we have a race situation similar to the Italian Grand Prix. 

Seeing the high level of both drivers, and especially the superiority of the MCL38, we will surely experience these events again in future races – potentially starting with Baku this weekend.

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