Monaco GP predictions: Leclerc curse, Hadjar under pressure, defining Mercedes moment

The sixth round of the F1 2026 season will take place at this weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix.

Will home favourite Charles Leclerc sink or swim in the Ferrari? Who will come out on top between Mercedes’ title contenders Kimi Antonelli and George Russell? And will we see an overtake happen beyond the first lap? Our writers submit their predictions for Monte Carlo…

Charles Leclerc will be struck by Monaco curse

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By Michelle Foster

All the talk in the build-up to the Monaco Grand Prix is that Ferrari will be the team to beat and Charles Leclerc will be on pole position.

No, he won’t – because he’ll bin it in qualifying.

Monaco is without a doubt the most important weekend of the season for the Monegasque driver, and this year it’s maybe even more so given Ferrari has been outpaced by Mercedes time and again.

It could, depending on ADUO and car development, be Ferrari’s one big opportunity to win.

Alas, Leclerc and pressure don’t always go well together. Especially in Monaco.

Although he won the 2024 edition that was arguably the most boring, processional, controlled Monaco Grand Prix in the race’s history.

I predict this year Leclerc’s Monaco curse will return with a crash in qualifying.

A defining moment in Mercedes title battle

By Mat Coch

It was in Monaco that Kimi Antonelli’s F1 2025 began to unravel as he began a tough run through the European leg of the championship.

Now heading the competition with four wins on the bounce, he can afford no such wobbles if he has title ambitions this time around.

He learned a bruising lesson in Canada, where he also had the measure of his Mercedes teammate George Russell in a weekend that in many respects saw the battle lines drawn.

That will be the underlying story of the Monaco GP, the evolving tension between the two championship protagonists, and how Mercedes responds.

Monaco is a key weekend; another defeat for Russell would not only be a further kick to his hopes but also his morale.

For Antonelli, success would be a huge statement, vanquishing the memories of a year ago and giving real credibility to his hopes of becoming world champion.

Dare we dream of seeing an overtake (or two?)

By Henry Valantine

Call me an optimist, call me delusional or whatever you like on this one.

I’ll put my cards on the table by saying qualifying Saturday in Monaco is my favourite day of the season bar none.

That one lap remains the ultimate test of car, driver, bravery, millimetre precision – the works. It’s everything Formula 1 should be.

Having walked those streets as well, it’s somehow even narrower than it looks on television, particularly in the second half of the circuit.

How the new regulations will fit into it all will be fascinating, too, given that the circuit will be energy-rich and drivers won’t need to recharge anywhere near as much, if at all.

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I know the cars are only slightly narrower and shorter this year, but my hope is it’ll be enough for someone to at least try and fling one up the inside at Mirabeau or Sainte Dévote through the race.

If drivers have battery power to spare, of course it can be used to defend as well, but that added layer of driving intelligently alongside keeping it out of the barriers should be something to look forward to.

This might age like milk by Monday if we get another procession, but I’m holding out hope.

A comfortable home win for Charles Leclerc

By Sam Cooper

The Monaco curse has been well and truly lifted in recent years and Leclerc is now the best driver when it comes to navigating the tricky streets of Monte Carlo.

He has been on pole here for three of the last five races and even if 2024 was the only time he converted that into a race win, I’d back him to do it again this weekend.

At no other circuit is qualifying so important and Leclerc has proven himself as one of, if not the, best on Saturday.

The Ferrari car is also suited for this type of circuit meaning the low-speed corners should allow both Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to take the fight to Mercedes.

Another Isack Hadjar setback will pile on the pressure

By Oliver Harden

When is it time to start worrying about Isack Hadjar?

His third place on the grid at the season opener in Australia is starting to feel a long time ago now.

Hadjar actually secured his best result for Red Bull in Canada, yet it didn’t much feel like a triumph with two penalties over the course of the race.

That came after he retired in Miami after clouting an inside barrier on entry, a common hazard at Monaco hotspots like the Nouvelle chicane (Hadjar made the same mistake at this corner in qualifying last year) and La Rascasse.

It was traditionally at this time of year that Sergio Perez, one of Hadjar’s many predecessors, would start to find himself being crushed under the weight of Max Verstappen’s genius.

Of the drivers in the four leading teams, Hadjar stands out a mile as the one most susceptible to a Q1/Q2 exit this weekend.

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