Predicting every F1 driver’s next move: Will Max Verstappen make the switch to Mercedes?

As the F1 teams rest during the summer break, we’re looking into our crystal ball to try and predict where each driver will go next.

For clarity, for the drivers whose next move is already confirmed, we will predict the one after that but other than that, it is pretty straightforward. If you missed the first batch of our predictions, you can catch up here.

Predicting every F1 driver’s next move

McLaren

Lando Norris

Lando Norris seems another driver who is with his team for the long haul but way down the line could things change?

To quote Dune, there is a narrow way through in which you could picture Norris moving away from the MTC. Say Oscar Piastri replaces him as number one a la Verstappen and Ricciardo at Red Bull or if McLaren’s competitiveness falls away, could Norris then be tempted by a move away?

One team that has shown an interest in him is Red Bull and if Verstappen were to move on, the Austrian outfit may go all out to entice Norris to Milton Keynes.

Prediction: Red Bull

Oscar Piastri

Having made an infamous move across from Alpine, Oscar Piastri seems like he is at McLaren for the foreseeable.

But all good things must come to an end so what does a post-McLaren Piastri career look like? If he stays for a decade onwards then it may be a move to a team down the grid but my prediction is Piastri will be a one-team man before leaving the sport.

Prediction: Leaves the sport

Mercedes

Lewis Hamilton

With Lewis Hamilton crossing the 40 mark before he puts on his Ferrari overalls, it seems unlikely that he will move to another team after Maranello.

The question is how long will he stay at Ferrari and if they build a competitive car for 2026, he may want to stick around for a while yet.

Prediction: Retirement

George Russell

Having finally got his Mercedes move, George Russell is likely to be with the Silver Arrows for a good while but what about after that?

Well a nice ending to his career would be a return to Williams with both driver and team much better off than when they were last together.

Prediction: Williams

Red Bull

Max Verstappen

They say there is no smoke without fire but will that be the case with Max Verstappen?

The Mercedes links are largely coming from one direction currently but there is a scenario where Red Bull with their new engine do not hit the ground running in 2026 and the ultra-competitive Verstappen looks elsewhere.

If Red Bull are competitive then we may be seeing the final years of the flying Dutchman as he has been very vocal about wanting to try other series that interest him.

Prediction: Move to another series or Mercedes if Red Bull are uncompetitive in 2026

Sergio Perez

Despite his current woes, Sergio Perez would be a good signing for a number of teams but the more important question is whether he would want to.

With Red Bull being the peak of his career and Perez being 34, it seems likely that he would choose retirement over moving to another outfit.

Prediction: Retirement

VCARB

Daniel Ricciardo

Daniel Ricciardo himself has said it is VCARB/Red Bull or bust so the only question is when will that be?

The Australian is now one of just five drivers who does not have a deal for next year so we may be seeing the final few races of the Honey Badger’s career or he may get another year.

Either way, leaving the sport seems the logical next step.

Prediction: Retirement

Yuki Tsunoda

Critics will say Yuki Tsunoda is with Red Bull to keep engine partner Honda happy but reducing the Japanese driver to that would be to ignore his talents.

With Aston Martin linking up with Honda from 2026, a move to there for the Honda-backed Tsunoda would make sense. The question is when would it happen?

Both Stroll and Alonso are signed up for that season so it may happen a little further down the road.

Prediction: Aston Martin

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Williams

Alex Albon

Alex Albon’s career is the kind every young driver should look at for a lesson on how to overcome disappointment.

His sacking from Red Bull would have been enough to see off many drivers but he stayed with the team as a development driver before getting a new lease of life at Willimas.

Now he is considered one of the best talents on the grid but is that enough to get a move back to one of the top teams?

A Red Bull return seems unlikely and Albon’s long-term deal suggests he believes in the Williams project.

So I predict he will stay at Williams for a number of years before leaving to join another team further down the grid, perhaps even Alpine.

Prediction: Alpine

Logan Sargeant

Logan Sargeant looks like a driver who was brought into F1 a little too early and unfortunately for the American, first impressions stick with you in this sport.

For that reason, it is hard to see a way back for the 23-year-old but that does not mean an end to his racing career.

Moving back home to the US and competing in IndyCar seems a natural career move.

Prediction: Move to a different series

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