Spanish GP predictions: Madring madness, Leclerc hits back, Monaco vibes

The 14th round of the F1 2026 season will take place this weekend with the Spanish Grand Prix at the new Madring circuit in Madrid.

Our writers cast their predictions for the new addition to the calendar…

Madness at the Madring

By Michelle Foster

Formula 1’s first visit to the Madring could deliver a weekend of chaos that could upset the standard pecking order.

New asphalt and ambient temperatures of 30°C and higher will turn an already slippery experience into driving on an ice rink.

Add in driving at an expected top speed of 340 km/h on a track where no one but the Ferrari teammates have any prior experience, as well as 22 corners, including the ‘La Monumental’ that will be the longest banked curve in Formula 1, and it’s going to be madness.

The Formula 3 racers had a go at the circuit late last month with 19 red flags over the course of two days.

The drivers may not be a Formula 1 level just yet, still honing their craft, but it did highlight just how tricky the circuit is.

Red flags not only affect the driver involved in the incident but also the rest of the field as it robs them of track time.

It could also put an end to a flying lap in qualifying or shake up the order during the grand prix.

I predict that a driver outside the top eight in the drivers’ championship will stand on the inaugural Madring podium.

Overtaking? It might be more Monaco than Monza

By Henry Valantine

Everyone involved in the Madrid Formula 1 project will of course be desperate for the weekend to go well as the sport returns to Spain’s capital for the first time in 45 years.

We only have drivers’ simulator accounts of the circuit to go by for now, as well as the track layout as a whole.

The question of overtaking has been an interesting one, with only two Straight Mode zones and, in the second half of the lap, a lot of left-right combinations mixed in with 90-degree corners, with what appears to be little opportunity to pass.

The braking zones into Turns 5 and 17 both caught out several drivers in recent F3 testing, and with Turn 5 likely to be cited as the main overtaking spot – and a tight corner exit to boot – it will take bravery as well as execution to pass this weekend.

Of course, the current cars may help with speed differentials at different times, but passing looks from early signs to be a tricky task.

Arvid Lindblad, from his sim work, offered a comparison to the Guia Circuit in Macau which, famously, offers very little chance for overtaking – or driver error, for that matter.

He did, though, add it should make it a “real driver’s track”. We’ll see if he’s right.

(As for a race result? Watch McLaren show up well again. Yes, I was wrong about the team winning at Monza, but the Madring looks more suited to the MCL40’s strengths again.)

Charles Leclerc on pole, Audi on the podium

By Oliver Harden

What’s that you say?

A bit of Jeddah? Some Baku in there too? Even a little slice of Sochi? That sounds like Charles Leclerc territory.

It was fashionable to give Leclerc a good kicking in the aftermath of Monza for his role in the opening-lap clash with Lewis Hamilton and his spectacular accident at Parabolica.

That he made the same mistake in the same race at the same corner six years ago did not exactly say much for his personal development.

At his best, though, there is still nobody more thrilling to watch. Leclerc is the driver you find yourself missing most over the winter break each year.

Ferrari is the only team to have previously run at the Madring, having held a filming day here in July.

Maybe it will not count for much. But perhaps it will count for something.

Expect Leclerc’s acrobatics to take him to pole position on Saturday.

The race? Think Baku in the early days. Safety cars. Red flags. Maybe the odd drain cover coming loose. Chaos.

Anyone’s race, in other words.

So who could be in a position to capitalise? To cause an upset?

Someone who’s been quietly impressive all season but has lacked that headline result? Someone to resist being dragged into the madness?

Pierre Gasly, maybe. But – wait – he had his turn last week.

Maybe one of the Racing Bulls guys, then. Liam Lawson in the Red Bull? Keeping it on the island could be half the battle.

Let’s go with Audi with another surprise podium. Gabriel Bortoleto this time.

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Max Verstappen takes first F1 2026 win at Madring

By Jamie Woodhouse

So, it sounds like the Madring is going to present the ultimate driver challenge. Hello there, Max Verstappen.

At a track where those deployment strategies may not quite be on point across the grid, and driver skill may have its biggest stage to shine of the year, it is primed for Verstappen to come out on top in Madrid.

It will not be easy. Yes, Verstappen bemoaned the Mercedes deployment at Monza, but that potentially will be dulled somewhat in comparison in Madrid.

Sure, Verstappen was not happy about the rear axle of the Red Bull. But, Madring could be a bit like Monaco, stick it on pole, hold on and win.

If we hark back to Hungary, the most recent visit to a technical, twisty track in the form of the Hungaroring, Verstappen scored P2. That matched his result from the Red Bull Ring.

We will find out in the coming days just what Formula 1 at the Madring looks like, but I am backing Verstappen for the win.

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