The major Oscar Piastri advantage revealed by Sprint qualifying data

After a stressful SQ2 in which Oscar Piastri narrowly avoided elimination, the current championship leader went on to set the fastest time in the Sprint Shootout during the Belgian Grand Prix weekend.

The gap between Piastri and his teammate Lando Norris was 0.618 seconds — a huge margin, even on the longest circuit on the calendar — while only Max Verstappen could hope to challenge them. Let’s see what the data has to say about the front row.

Oscar Piastri swings the momentum his way

Even after the single free practice session ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix, it was already clear that McLaren would once again showcase their dominance — with the real fight likely coming down to the two teammates.

Following back-to-back wins in Britain and Austria, momentum had undoubtedly shifted towards Lando Norris, who managed to considerably reduce the gap in the championship standings.

That’s why Spa-Francorchamps represents such a key turning point in the title battle.

After the sprint shootout, it seems Oscar Piastri is fully focused and ready to swing the momentum back in his direction — something he desperately needs if he’s to preserve the advantage he built earlier in the season.

A direct comparison of the SQ3 laps between the two teammates shows that Piastri was quicker in all three sectors.

Interestingly, his largest gain came in Sector 2 — roughly three-tenths of a second — which is the very part of the track where McLaren enjoys a noticeable advantage over the rest of the field.

However, up until nearly halfway through the lap, the gap wasn’t that dramatic. Piastri had a better launch and gained a tenth in Turn 1. Both McLarens were neck and neck through Eau Rouge, while in the slower Turns 5 and 6, Norris clawed back the lost time, bringing them practically level.

But the decisive moment came at Turn 9, where Piastri was able to maintain much better speed. Through Pouhon, he once again kept the throttle open longer, which only widened the delta between them.

Piastri secured pole for the sprint with a stellar drive through the T12–T13 chicane, where he gained another tenth.

These sprint qualifying sessions were unique in that drivers were required to use medium tyres in SQ1 and SQ2, before switching to softs in SQ3. With only one flying lap available due to the shorter format, adapting immediately to the extra grip was essential.

And the driver who did that best was clearly Oscar Piastri, because a +0.6s advantage, even around Spa, is a serious gap. It will be fascinating to see how the battle plays out in Sunday’s qualifying, where both drivers will have two flying laps in Q3 and more time to adapt.

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Max Verstappen: McLaren’s biggest challenger

One thing we know about Max Verstappen is that he adapts to changing track conditions with remarkable speed, and once again he found himself right in the mix with the McLaren duo during Sprint qualifying.

In fact, he remains the only driver in the F1 2025 field capable of consistently taking the fight to them — even with a Red Bull that hasn’t been at its best.

The RB21 followed a setup direction in Britain that favoured low drag and strong top speed, at the cost of stability through corners. And from what we’ve seen, Red Bull’s engineers opted for a similar philosophy here in Belgium.

Comparing the rear wings makes the difference in downforce levels clear — Red Bull essentially brought a Monza-style low-downforce aero package.

This gave them a sizable advantage on Spa’s many straights, as clearly shown in the telemetry charts.

But the trade-off in cornering performance, particularly in slow-speed sections where rear-end stability is crucial, was also evident.

On a track like Spa, that means Max was losing time through Turns 5, 8, and 14 — the slowest corners on the circuit, aside from the first and final chicanes.

Still, despite this disadvantage, Verstappen secured a front-row start for the sprint and managed to outpace one of the McLaren drivers.

However, such an aero setup could prove problematic if the race turns out to be wet — just as we saw at Silverstone.

Reduced drag almost always comes at the expense of downforce, which is vital for speed through corners, as we’ve already discussed. But this trade-off becomes even more critical in wet conditions, where any extra grip can be invaluable.

Last race weekend was a perfect example — thanks to a bold strategy and a great lap, Verstappen took pole, but then struggled massively with race pace on Sunday.

It’ll be intriguing to see whether Red Bull’s engineers will reap better results from the same setup direction this time around.

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