Uncovered: What the data reveals between Perez, Colapinto and Lawson

All indications are that Red Bull are very much considering a change to Max Verstappen’s team-mate for the 2025 season.

With Sergio Perez still under contract but facing pressure, there are two big names in the running to replace the Mexican driver: Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson.

Red Bull’s driver dilemma for F1 2025 season

Red Bull has a difficult decision to make before the end of the 2024 season. With the Constructors’ World Championship all but lost and 2025 looking to be a very tight year for several teams, drivers can be decisive in the fight for titles as we have witnessed with Max Verstappen this year.

With Sergio Pérez in the spotlight, Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson, two young drivers, 21 and 22 years old respectively, have shown great performance in their first races -although Lawson already made his debut back in 2023.

First of all, it is very difficult to extract completely accurate data due to the difference in performance and behaviour between the cars of these drivers. Sergio Perez with Red Bull, Liam Lawson with VCARB and Franco Colapinto with Williams – but what numbers should Red Bull be looking at to decide?

Essentially the difference with their teammates. It is only possible to compare performances between drivers with the same machinery. This data we have analysed is taken from the Italian GP for Perez and Colapinto and from the US GP for Lawson.

As we can see, in terms of qualifying performance, all three candidates lose out when compared to their teammates. However, the adaptation shown by Colapinto and Lawson against Alexander Albon and Yuki Tsunoda in these tricky cars was remarkable, only near one tenth off the pace.

But more importantly, how do the drivers compare in race performance? Well, both Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson have outperformed their respective teammates since their arrival at Williams and VCARB. However, they have scored fewer points because they have not achieved as high a finishing position.

Sergio Pérez, as in qualifying, is a long way behind Max Verstappen. In a matter of six races, the Dutch driver has scored eight times more points than the Mexican. A truly unacceptable gap with a car capable of fighting for at least the top eight on a regular basis.

Sergio Perez has come undone in the Red Bull head-to-head stats

👉F1 2024: Head-to-head qualifying record between team-mates

👉F1 2024: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates

Since the Italian GP, he has only scored seven more points than Colapinto in a Williams on race tracks where the Argentinian had never raced before.

Of course, data aside, the economic factor is also a key point to consider. Franco Colapinto is a fresh face who has taken Formula 1 by storm since he first stepped into the paddock at Monza. A whole country in Argentina supports him, a charismatic character, just 21 years old… which makes him a very striking image for sponsors and brands that are willing to make a big payback to support the Argentinian’s career in Formula 1.

With Checo Pérez, Red Bull had this last point well covered. In fact, there has been much speculation that the Mexican’s continuity with the team in Milton Keynes has been largely due to the support of his sponsors and the importance of the brand having a South American athlete. Franco Colapinto is a replacement that meets all the points that Red Bull has tried to cover thanks to Sergio Perez in terms of image.

Liam Lawson has been part of the Red Bull Junior programme for 5 years now. He has the backing of the energy drink brand. But starting from New Zealand, a country of 5.2 million inhabitants – where the brand already has some experience having had Brendon Hartley as a driver in 2018 – for the almost 47 million inhabitants of Argentina, Lawson’s image, in this case, could be less attractive for the big brands compared to Colapinto.

However, none of them will be able to come close to Sergio Pérez in this respect for the time being due to the longevity of his career and the fact that he is the image of a country that also has a circuit on the F1 calendar. Although according to the latest rumours, Argentina could be a candidate to host a race in the next few years and here the image of Colapinto to attract the public to a big investment could be fundamental.

But it is clear that Checo’s problem is a sporting problem that requires an imminent change if Red Bull really wants to fight for titles in 2025, even if it means terminating the Mexican driver’s contract.

The brand gave him a chance during the summer break to get back on track and Christian Horner himself came to his defence, but the situation is now looking untenable for both parties with three races to go until the end of the 2024 season.

Now the big question is: will Red Bull bet on its protégé Liam Lawson or will it look for a way to fish for Franco Colapinto? Just when it seemed that the silly season was coming to an end, these two drivers will generate a lot more speculation before Christmas arrives.

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