F1’s race to the bottom? Ferrari predict wind tunnel tactics are afoot

If a team cannot fight for the title next season, Fred Vasseur wouldn’t be surprised if they went for position “x minus two” in the standings to take advantage of F1’s ATR regulations.

Next year’s championship marks the final season with Formula 1’s cars and engines, the sport completing overhauling the engine and aerodynamic regulations in 2026.

Ferrari team boss: For ’25 we don’t care if we are Px minus two

The new power units will have a 50/50 split between internal combustion and electric power and will run on sustainable fuels.

As for the cars, they will be smaller, lighter, and more agile as they shed 30 kilograms compared to today’s cars, while DRS will make way for a Manual Override Mode that will give the drivers an electrical boost to facilitate overtaking.

The cars will also have active aerodynamic systems on the front and rear wings.

The huge changes have opened the door for Formula 1’s pecking order to be turned on its head; those at the front getting it wrong and those at the back getting it right.

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As such wind tunnel time, dictated by Formula 1’s Aerodynamic Testing Restrictions, will be crucial next season.

So much so, Vasseur wouldn’t be surprised if some teams adopted a “we don’t care” attitude to next season’s positions in the Constructors’ Championship as the lower they finish, the more of a head start they’ll get for 2026.

“It’s not critical in this period if someone has an advantage and is given more [wind tunnel] runs,” said the Ferrari team principal as per Autosport. “That is because today we are making such small progress each run.

“But the game changer could be ’26 because you could have some teams that are perhaps not fighting for the championship next year that decide: ‘Okay, for ’25 we don’t care if we are Px [in the standings] and we don’t care if we are x plus two or x minus two. We will just go full on the ’26 project.

“If you are fighting for something, you will have the temptation to do more for ’25 plus, [and] on the top [of that], the other teams already have more, because they are Px compared to P1 in the table. So the Px will be fully focused on ’26 but the P1 will be split [across the two seasons].”

Formula 1’s ATR scale, which lays out the number of wind tunnel runs and CFD hours every team is permitted, is reset twice a year based on the Constructors’ Championship.

The first cycle from January 1 to June 30 is set out by the previous year’s finishing position in the teams’ standings, while the second cycle, July 1 to December 31, is determined by the standings on June 30.

As things stand today, McLaren will go into the 2025 season with the least number of ATR hours at 70 per cent of the allocation while Sauber will have the most, 115 per cent.

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