Could Cadillac really replace Valtteri Bottas already? The truth behind the rumours

Just a handful of races into the F1 2026 season, Valtteri Bottas has found himself in the midst of the first big driver market rumour as the silly season ramps up.

The Finn has made a return to Formula 1 with Cadillac this season, having spent a year on the sidelines as Mercedes’ reserve driver, but has found himself at the centre of a rumour mill suggesting he could lose his seat mid-season.

Colton Herta linked to Valtteri Bottas Cadillac speculation

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Rumours about Bottas’ security with the Cadillac team emerged over the Canadian Grand Prix weekend, coinciding with a difficult weekend for the Finn as Sergio Perez clearly had the upper hand on pace throughout.

However, PlanetF1.com understands that these rumours are all without basis, with strong sources pointing to the speculation as a “complete fabrication”, with Bottas continuing to enjoy the full support of the team.

Indeed, one source with close knowledge of the situation compared the extent of the media fabrication to that of the Esteban Ocon rumours that saw Ayao Komatsu deliver an expletive-filled riposte targeting the original source.

Bottas’ struggles in Canada were most in focus in qualifying, where he wound up as the slowest of those to set a time in both the Sprint and Grand Prix qualifying, with Perez eight-tenths of a second clear in both sessions.

In the race itself, a suspension failure on Perez’s car ended his race prematurely, but it was clear the Mexican driver had been the more comfortable of the duo as he led Bottas on track throughout the Grand Prix as they circulated at the back of the pack.

“We’ve had a few issues this weekend with the setup,” Bottas explained afterwards.

“The car has been very different in each session, and even today, there were some things that we couldn’t fix, so the car is not 100 per cent.

“For sure, it’s not yet in a place where I can gain good confidence with the car, but also, we know that my car wasn’t 100 per cent.”

This performance triggered the speculation that Bottas has lost the confidence of the Cadillac team and that another poor showing at the upcoming Monaco Grand Prix could even lead to him losing his seat mid-season, with the rumours being that the team’s reserve driver, Colton Herta, is being lined up to slot in instead.

However, team sources have firmly pointed the other way: Bottas’ considerable experience is said to be a “massive part” of why Cadillac has hit the ground running as a solid performer; despite its newness, Cadillac has looked more assured and is delivering similar performance to that of the vastly more experienced Aston Martin squad.

Regardless, there is also no possibility that Herta can step in mid-season to replace Bottas: the American driver does not currently hold an FIA Super Licence as needed to race in Formula 1 and, as he currently occupies 12th in the Formula 2 championship, is not currently eligible to be granted one for next year either. However, he can achieve the 40 points required by way of FP1 appearances with Cadillac during this season, as single points are handed out for completion of 100 kilometres during an FP1 outing.

Indeed, of the two background drivers at Cadillac, it’s Zhou Guanyu, who is managed by Lowdon, who would appear to be the more likely driver if an opportunity were to arise in the short-term: the Chinese driver is set to drive the Pirelli tyre test in Barcelona in two weeks, holds an FIA Super Licence, and Lowdon has said that he would have “no qualms whatsoever to put him in in the car, if we had a problem with one of the race drivers. Obviously, we hope we don’t need to do that!”

With the possibility of a mid-season change of drivers rebutted by multiple sources, what about F1 2027? In the official announcements of Bottas and Perez for 2026, no indication was given as to the length of their contracts.

However, PlanetF1.com understands that neither driver is on a single-year deal, with both thought to be on multi-year option arrangements. Perez’s strong return is thought to have attracted attention and interested enquiries from rival teams, should he wish to explore options elsewhere, while Bottas’ contract situation is also understood to give the Finn Cadillac security for 2027.

With no changes apparently imminent at Cadillac, it’s also worth remembering the thinking behind the hiring of Bottas and Perez: they are proven packages of a baseline of speed and consistency, without the question marks of youthful exuberance that could threaten the underlying goal of this first year: as a new team finding its feet, reliability and mileage, time spent on track is the most important resource it can accrue.

While it is easy to look at the end results achieved so far and suggest that Bottas has been blown away by Perez, this is also not taking into consideration the fact that, operationally, the team lacks the “muscle memory” of the more established teams, as team boss Graeme Lowdon explained in Miami.

Having rolled out with upgrades, including a “fairly substantial” package in Miami that saw changes across several areas of the car, it’s important to keep in mind that every single area of the team, whether that be the trackside race operations or the procurement to manufacturing processes back at base, is completely new and unproven.

Not only does this introduce the need to fully assess the consistency and precision of all these areas, including that of upgrades and components (as Perez’s suspension failure in Montreal demonstrated), but there’s also the exponential improvement in operational slickness from weekend to weekend: Cadillac took advantage of the five-week gap between Japan and Miami to concentrate on simulating some areas of operations in order to get in some extra practice.

Until there’s a level of confidence that all of these areas are at 100 per cent consistency, the impact an individual driver can make is reduced, with even small variabilities coming into play as explanations for performance differences.

At a time when figuring out the success of its own processes is a priority, there simply is no reason for Cadillac to be overtly concerned about Bottas, and the suggestion is that he and the team are working patiently through the issues that are currently holding him back from his full potential.

At this early stage in Cadillac’s life, Lowdon has also pointed to a firm belief in ensuring negativity is kept out of the team’s spirit.

“It is more difficult for a new team because all of our processes are so new, everything is brand new,” he said.

“I would argue every team has that challenge, because we’re all faced with the same regulations, we are having to formulate some pretty complex processes and procedures just to manage the whole engineering side of it, but we’ve got very experienced engineers who know what they’re doing.

“There’s a very good spirit within the team, the cooperative spirit, and I think that’s really important, where some of the dynamics of the team make a big difference.

“Because when teams get challenged and under pressure, if you don’t have that, then a lot of energy can be taken up with negativity and all that kind of thing.

“We’ve kind of got the reverse. We’ve got a lot of people who are, I personally think, relishing the challenge, we’ve a lot of experienced people who’ve done an awful lot in Formula 1. They’ve been in teams that have won championships.

“This new team environment is a massive challenge, but some people relish it, and, dare I say, enjoy it.”

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