Lando Norris predicts what will cause next ‘big shake-up’ in F1 competitive order

While teams are narrowing the deficit to Red Bull, Lando Norris believes we will need to wait until 2026 for the next “big shake-up” in the Formula 1 pecking order.

Formula 1 introduced its most recent overhaul to the regulations in 2022, this marking the start of Red Bull’s rise to dominant status, the team and star driver Max Verstappen having claimed back-to-back title doubles and leading the way again in the early F1 2024 standings.

Lando Norris looks to 2026 power units for ‘big shake-up’

The rulebook will be re-written again in 2026, though this time it will not only be the cars which change as a new generation of power units – relying more greatly on electrical power and costing less – will be introduced.

There is the best part of two seasons to go until then, though Norris doubts the competitive order in F1 will shift dramatically before that key moment.

“I think for things to really shake-up you’re waiting until ’26,” Norris told media at the Australian Grand Prix.

“I think that can potentially be a big shake-up for every team, PUs probably being one of the biggest things.

“Now there’s not really anything between PUs between teams, but a lot more between cars.”

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That being said, Norris is not about to predict a Red Bull fall from grace at that point, despite the team preparing to enter uncharted territory in 2026 by becoming a power unit manufacturer for the first time, working in partnership with Ford.

Norris believes the “smart” Red Bull know how to preserve their advantage, but the signs are already there in this era that the chasing pack is closing in, Norris referencing his McLaren team – who have surged from competing towards the back of the grid to collecting regular podiums over the last year – to support his claim.

“I expect Red Bull, being the team that they are, to always carry an advantage, because they’re ahead,” said Norris.

“They’re just as smart, smarter in many ways, that if they do just as good of a job as any other team, they should always carry the advantage that they have, which you do hope that they start to run out of good ideas.

“I think every team is catching up. I think even if you look at our 12 months of progress from last year, we’ve been the team who have developed the most and we’re the best developing team over the last 12 months.

“So when you look at it from that perspective, I think we can be very happy with the job that we’re doing. But it’s not enough and it’s not close enough to challenge them.”

Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz ended Verstappen’s race-winning run at nine with a dominant victory at the Australian Grand Prix.

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