Ranked: Rating every F1 2024 driver’s chance of claiming Lewis Hamilton’s seat

Lewis Hamilton will leave behind a highly-coveted seat in Formula 1 when he departs Mercedes at the end of 2024, with Toto Wolff’s phone likely to have been ringing already with prospective candidates.

With Russell and Hamilton removed for obvious reasons and several races down and other pieces now having been removed from the equation, here’s a look at each of the remaining 18 drivers on the F1 2024 grid and their chances of taking Hamilton’s seat at Mercedes.

Max Verstappen

Well, we had put Verstappen at ‘no chance’ in our initial version of this piece but events at Red Bull have now put him firmly in Wolff’s sights as the team’s top choice, and he cannot be fully ruled out.

He has a contract with Red Bull until 2028 and is still widely expected to stay with the team, but as a wise man once said: “Anything can happen in Formula 1, and it usually does.”

Rating: Small chance

Sergio Perez

Perez is looking to fight to keep his place alongside Verstappen for 2025 and is giving all he can to earn a renewal at Red Bull.

Should that not come to pass, though, he’ll become a free agent again and would represent an experienced pair of hands to bring in alongside Russell, with recent top-level experience to boot.

Rating: Small chance

Charles Leclerc

Having signed a new contract at Ferrari for “several more seasons to come” and now confirmed as Hamilton’s team-mate for 2025, if Leclerc was poached for Mercedes, the internet would be broken all over again.

Rating: No chance

Carlos Sainz

Sainz now finds himself back on the driver market after Hamilton’s move, and having barely put a foot wrong at Ferrari, would represent a strong option for Mercedes.

He’s believed to have options on the table for multiple teams at the moment, and his signature is set to be one of the key cogs of the driver market this year.

Rating: Good chance

Lando Norris

Having just committed his long-term future to McLaren with another fresh deal, much like Leclerc and Verstappen, if Norris was to make the move to Mercedes, then that really would cause a shock.

Rating: No chance

Oscar Piastri

Much like Norris, Piastri is contracted to McLaren for the next few years – 2026, to be precise, but if Mercedes wanted to cause another big shock on the driver market, Piastri would certainly represent that. He did it with his arrival at McLaren, after all, but expect likelier candidates for now.

Rating: No chance

Fernando Alonso

Alonso was initially one of our ‘good chance’ candidates when this piece was first uploaded, with his name still linked with top teams and his contract with Aston Martin up at the end of 2024.

But given he has now penned terms with ‘Team Silverstone’ until the end of 2026, that rules out this possibility.

Rating: No chance

Lance Stroll

Given Stroll’s close family ties to Aston Martin and, with his name not having been mentioned by Wolff among the candidates for Mercedes yet, other options are likely to be looked at before him – and he may end up in a strong position for success of his own with Aston Martin regardless.

Rating: No chance

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Pierre Gasly

Gasly is coming into the final year of his current deal with Alpine, but it’s believed that there is an option within there to take him up for the 2025 season as well.

He’d represent an ‘outside’ option from the Mercedes stable, but if he’s able to establish himself over his Mercedes-linked team-mate, you never know.

Rating: Small chance

Esteban Ocon

Probably the more likely Alpine driver to move to Mercedes, considering Ocon is still managed by Mercedes despite his move away from the team through which he rose up the junior ranks.

He would need to prove himself as the dominant driver over a strong performer in Gasly this year if he’s to put himself in with a chance, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.

Rating: Small chance

Alex Albon

The name that was on everyone’s lips the most when the news of Hamilton’s move was confirmed, but now that team principal James Vowles has confirmed he is on a contract until 2025 with Williams, any move for Albon would now seemingly involve the hurdle of some kind of buyout.

He remains an attractive candidate for a top seat after a superb season last year, though, so watch this space on Albon just in case.

Rating: Good chance

Logan Sargeant

Having held onto his seat for 2024 after doing enough to impress in the final races of his rookie season, another year of experience is Logan Sargeant’s most likely outcome.

Being forced out of his cockpit for Albon in Melbourne will have stung as a reminder of where he currently sits in the team pecking order, and he will have work to do to keep his place on the grid in 2025.

Rating: No chance

Daniel Ricciardo

Ricciardo was another name mentioned among potential early candidates to replace Hamilton, if his ultimate vision of returning to Red Bull does not take shape for 2025.

Helmut Marko looked to shut that down however, saying he is not available for a move, but stranger things have happened. One for the ‘maybe’ column further down the line, though his form against Yuki Tsunoda needs to improve.

Rating: Small chance

Yuki Tsunoda

Given Tsunoda’s strong sponsorship links to Honda, one of Mercedes’ key rivals on the power unit front from the 2026 season, that makes him an unlikely candidate for the drive.

He wants to put himself in the frame for a Red Bull drive first and foremost, and he has started very well alongside Daniel Ricciardo in 2024, but some significant levers would need to be pulled to engineer a move to Mercedes.

Rating: No chance

Valtteri Bottas

A return to Mercedes for Valtteri Bottas shouldn’t be fully ruled out, given he won five Constructors’ titles with the team in his seasons there and he is coming into the final year of his current deal.

Hopefully he wouldn’t take offence in being referred to as a ‘safe pair of hands’ for the Silver Arrows, but when asked about a Mercedes return by media including PlanetF1.com at the launch of the Stake F1 car, he said: “We haven’t spoken on the phone yet with Toto, and if I would go back? Well, obviously, my priority and biggest commitment is the Audi project, which is my target, but if that wouldn’t happen, then actually there’s no team that I wouldn’t go to, let’s say, perhaps, but I know my priorities and I’ve got my list.”

Rating: Small chance

Zhou Guanyu

Of a straight choice between the two Stake F1 drivers, Bottas would likely be the preferred option for Mercedes, given his existing links with the team.

That’s not a slight on Zhou, but now in his third season in F1, if he were to put himself in the shop window for a top seat alongside an experienced race-winning team-mate, now’s the time.

Rating: No chance

Nico Hulkenberg

So often on the periphery of these conversations for top seats throughout his Formula 1 career, but Nico Hulkenberg showed his speed at Haas last season – especially over one lap.

If Mercedes put their weight behind Russell when Hamilton does leave, they could do worse than having an experienced head in Hulkenberg alongside him, but with Toto Wolff perhaps teasing a bolder choice, he may not be among them – though don’t rule it out completely.

Rating: Small chance

Kevin Magnussen

The same applies for K-Mag as it does for Hulkenberg here, but he admits himself he’ll need to step up this season to put himself front and centre in conversations on the driver market again.

If he consistently performs as well as we know he can though, he could represent an outside option if other seats begin to get filled quickly.

Rating: Small chance

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