Why the stars are aligning for a Liam Lawson Red Bull 2025 promotion

Red Bull looks set to replace Sergio Perez with Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson for 2025, but it’s the Kiwi driver who appears to have the edge.

The World Champion’s title defence has failed in F1 2024, with Sergio Perez’s nonexistent form leading to, essentially, Max Verstappen attempting to head off the strong driver pairings of McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari all by himself.

Sergio Perez set to exit Red Bull after Abu Dhabi GP

The one-sidedness of Red Bull’s driver pairing in 2024 has been eye-opening, even with Perez having endured tough periods of time on occasion throughout his Red Bull tenure. Offered the security of a two-year extension on his contract earlier this year, in a bid to see if such security would bolster Perez’s confidence, the move failed to yield any rewards.

In fact, Perez only appears to have spiralled further – to the point where the defence put up by Christian Horner throughout the year has come to an end – and the Mexican driver now faces the door following the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

After all, Red Bull slipping to third in the Constructors’ Championship has cost the team significant financial rewards in terms of prize money and marketing value for 2025, while also directly impacting the rank-and-file employees as annual bonuses are affected by the team’s final position.

“We have to have two drivers who finish in the points,” Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko told DAZN after the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

“Max is more than 200 points ahead of Sergio [in the driver standings]. For our employees, it is a disappointment because they will not receive their bonuses, as they depend on our position in the Constructors’ Championship.”

It’s been a protracted, drawn-out fall for Perez. A popular and well-liked figure in the Red Bull family, his willingness to go to war on behalf of Verstappen at the tail end of 2021 endeared himself to Milton Keynes, with his loyalty and determination in Abu Dhabi directly helping the Dutch driver to get into a position to strike against Lewis Hamilton later in the race.

Together with his substantial financial backing through Carlos Slim, these assets bought Perez a lot of goodwill to weather the rocky moments over the last two years – particularly as he showed an ability to, eventually, pull himself together.

Added to that was a clear shift in Red Bull’s mentality towards the treatment of its drivers. Under Dietrich Mateschitz’s ownership, the Red Bull organisation was ruthless in its treatment of young drivers – something a bevy of wide-eyed rookies, including Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly from the current crop, experienced.

But, following Mateschitz’s passing, that ruthlessness has faded – Horner’s increased influence showing a more sentimental side as he brought back the written-off Daniel Ricciardo from his premature McLaren departure and, arguably, giving Perez longer than he should have been given this year.

This goodwill towards Perez can only go so far, though, and his complete inability to turn up, or admit that he has mentally crumbled and is struggling, has cost Red Bull dearly this year. Added to that is that Slim’s contributions aren’t as essential anymore, with AT&T being signed as a prominent sponsor – all but cementing the likely departure of Perez’s sponsor Telmex.

The question mark at this point is whether or not the split with Perez will be amicable or acrimonious. An offer to become a Red Bull ambassador, a la Daniel Ricciardo, is understood to be on the table should Perez be able to swallow his pride, but there is the potential for the situation to turn ugly should Perez not understand the nature of the situation he finds himself in.

Liam Lawson’s audition earns Red Bull Racing consideration

Endless column inches have been given over to the Red Bull driver uncertainty this season, with Ricciardo going from a near-certain promotion to the main team to a demotion from the sister team within weeks as the situation evolved rapidly.

Liam Lawson, the highly-rated Kiwi driver who made such an impression during his short stint as a substitute in 2023, may have narrowly missed out on a drive for this year, but his presence was never far away as he loomed, shark-like, in the VCARB garage waiting for his moment.

Eventually, that moment came as Lawson was slotted in place of Ricciardo for the final six races – a short and sweet audition to see whether the Kiwi driver can handle the pressure of such an intense few weeks on stage.

While results will play on obvious part in evaluating this audition, there’s more to the assessment than simple points scoring. Yuki Tsunoda is a known quantity of speed, both over a single-lap and on race pace, offering a clear benchmark for Lawson to stack up against.

But the assessment is also to see whether Lawson is made of the right material for Red Bull. If there’s one descriptor that Red Bull hates above all else, it’s anonymity. A forgettable driver is a driver of little value, and Lawson has shown the type of fiery determination and strength of self-belief that marks out what Red Bull seeks.

Lawson has made mistakes, true, with his hot-headed moment of anger towards stablemate Perez not going down particularly well, but the Kiwi driver made a point of waiting around to meet Horner after the race and media sessions in order to hold his hand up. Following his collision with Valtteri Bottas in Qatar, Lawson made a beeline for the Finn to apologise profusely for his error, revealing that he’d intentionally spun the car in the incident to ensure he didn’t hit the Sauber driver harder than he did.

In such a crucial period in Lawson’s career, it would be easy for such an inexperienced head to be reluctant to show any signs of weakness, but Lawson’s willingness to admit mea culpa shows clear mental strength and self-belief – knowing that his every move is being scrutinised intensely by Red Bull’s management.

The understanding at this point is that, short of a miracle turnaround in Abu Dhabi, Perez won’t be in a Red Bull Racing cockpit in 2025. The Mexican is set to be offered an ambassadorship-type role with the organisation, should he choose to accept it.

The hints around the team are that Perez needs to realise he needs to depart on his own terms before the decision is made for him, with attention turning to the matter of who replaces him once the cockpit is freed up.

Why it’s Liam Lawson, not Yuki Tsunoda, who makes the most sense

Heading into the Abu Dhabi weekend, the lead contender appears to be Lawson. Tsunoda, long ruled out of contention for most of this year, has entered the fray as a possibility – he’s become impossible to ignore due to a string of strong results and contributing 30 of VCARB’s 46 points and keeping them in the hunt for a potential sixth place in the Constructors’ Championship.

But there are other considerations to take into account. Tsunoda, despite his experience, still has rough edges – borne out by the occasional silly mistake or crash, combined with a lack of level-headedness in high-pressure situations. His unnecessary moment of temper-fuelled rage on the cooldown lap in Bahrain indicated that this red mist hasn’t fully disappeared – while it’s easier to keep such a temper in check while in a more comfortable leading position at a team, how would Tsunoda handle being paired up with a Verstappen who is likely to be ahead more often than not?

Tsunoda’s background is also more Honda-aligned than Red Bull, although this history isn’t necessarily an impediment once Honda and Red Bull cut ties – Honda has indicated a willingness to become a personal sponsor of the Japanese driver should he end up with a team not running Honda power.

But it’s an extra little filip in Lawson’s corner, who has enjoyed a close collaboration with Red Bull for the past six years. Highly rated within the ranks, the fact he is being spoken about in the same conversation as Tsunoda – a driver with just under four years of additional F1 experience on him – hints at a higher performance ceiling as he settles into the sport full-time, while Tsunoda, after those four years, should be close to being at his full potential.

There’s also the consideration that, should Tsunoda’s promotion be made with an eye to the short-term, he will take a more selfish approach to next season – it’s in his interests to look after his own corner to assure his future. For Lawson, who appears to have a more certain long-term future with Red Bull provided he keep up his current standards, he is far more likely to be willing to play ball in a Verstappen supporting role for a year or two, allowing him to find his feet without feeling the need to fight unnecessarily hard against his teammate.

There’s also the small issue of succession at Red Bull. Verstappen has long made it clear that he’s in F1 for a good time, not a long time, and Red Bull simply can’t assume that the Dutch driver will stay with the squad for the next four years if the performance drops away.

While the intention to remain with Red Bull is there, a lack of enjoyment of the new regulations in F1 2026 could see Verstappen choose to walk away, while there’s also the possibility – however slim – of him choosing to leave for another team before the end of 2028. If Max walks, Red Bull needs a successor to be the face of its entire presence in F1.

Tsunoda does not appear to be that driver. While he may be the wiser choice for short-term reward in F1 2025, more likely to outscore what Lawson is capable of at the first time of asking in the senior team, Lawson simply ticks more boxes – he’s fast, aggressive, isn’t cowed by formidable opponents (as proven by his amusing contretemps with Fernando Alonso), and has shown the indefinable ‘x-factor’ quality that Red Bull seeks.

It’s a quality shared with Franco Colapinto, who was of major interest for Red Bull, but came with a heavy price tag after his first three races – a price tag that dwindled rapidly as Colapinto started crashing, although that price decline was matched by Red Bull’s level of interest.

The biggest headache Red Bull faces isn’t so much in deciding who is best for F1 2025, as pretty much anybody will mark a step up from the current arrangement, but in who best aligns with a potential Verstappen-less future in the coming years. It’s with this in mind that it’s Lawson, not Colapinto or Tsunoda, who appears the favourite for the position.

On the flip side of that, not promoting Tsunoda will likely spell the end of the Japanese driver’s desire to continue with Red Bull beyond his current contract, with Tsunoda already showing plenty of frustration about the fact his name hasn’t been a factor for Red Bull for most of this season. Being overlooked in favour of someone with only half a season’s experience would surely have Tsunoda quickly scrambling for exit options.

Assuming it is Lawson who steps up to Red Bull, and Tsunoda continues with VCARB, it’s understood French driver Isack Hadjar is set to step into the second car.

The F2 title protagonist has been a consistent tour de force this year, although his demeanour hasn’t always curried favour with the ranks – while usually quite dour and terse, Hadjar was positively buoyant over the Qatar weekend, particularly as he backed up his title bid with fourth place in the Sprint and second in the Feature.

As for who is coming up behind, Arvid Lindblad steps up into Formula 2 and is highly rated by Helmut Marko. Should he prove to have the mettle for such an upward trajectory, Lindblad may bypass current F2 drivers Oliver Goethe and Pepe Marti to enter the fray for 2026 and the start of the new regulation cycle.

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