McLaren 5-3 Red Bull: Predicting the winners of the final F1 2024 races to come

The start of the second half of the F1 2024 season is just around the corner. In one of the most evenly matched seasons since 2012 with seven different winners in 14 races, the fight for the Constructors‘ and Drivers’ World Championship promises to be exciting.

In a ‘crazy’ season like this year, any kind of prediction even based on data and team performances is a risky venture. There are many variables at play such as weather conditions, team strategies and human error. As well as the introduction of possible upgrades in the upcoming races to the various cars on the grid. But we can still have a bit of fun can’t we?

F1 2024 predictions: Winners at the last 10 tracks

Dutch GP: McLaren

After Max Verstappen’s total domination at home since 2021 following the return of Zandvoort to the calendar, McLaren seems to be in great form in the final stages before the summer break.

At a circuit with similar characteristics to Imola where Max Verstappen just managed to keep Lando Norris behind in the final stages of the race and took pole with a fortunate slipstream from Nico Hülkenberg, Zandvoort should be a tight fight between Red Bull and McLaren again, but with the Papaya team having the upper hand.

Italian GP: Red Bull

After a grid penalty in Belgium and a superb pole position in wet conditions, Max Verstappen and Red Bull showed great potential on the fast Spa circuit. In Monza, with fewer corners and a clearly shorter track, the gap between all teams should be smaller.

Another important element to consider for this race is that Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari will probably take the opportunity to run their last ICE before incurring grid penalties.

This may give them a slight advantage over Red Bull in terms of engine ‘freshness’ and more freedom to push, but it has become clear that the RB20’s straight line performance is superior to that of the MCL38 and W15 due to its lower drag.

Keep an eye on Haas and Nico Hülkenberg in the midfield, they could be the positive surprise of that weekend.

Azerbaijan GP: McLaren

The Baku street circuit, as with many tracks this season, will bring out the differences between the teams in the various sectors.

Red Bull is likely to dominate in Sector 1 and Sector 3 with the long main straight, but in the twisty and ‘kerby’ Sector 2 McLaren should have a slight advantage over the rest of the pack.

Singapore GP: Ferrari

Traditionally a Ferrari circuit for the last three editions due to the need of optimal mechanical grip. Given the dominance of the SF24 in Monaco, the characteristics of the Marina Bay street circuit should heavily favour Ferrari.

Although McLaren was also very strong in Monte Carlo, Charles Leclerc’s pace in qualifying and the difficulty to overtake on track should play in favour of the Italian team over Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes.

However, they must close the gap to these three teams before Singapore if they really want to be in with a chance of victory.

US GP: McLaren

Austin should be another big battle between the top four teams on the grid with the first Sprint weekend since Austria.

However, McLaren with the most complete car should be the strongest team in the United States. Two poles in a row for Ferrari here and three wins for Max Verstappen should see a turnaround with Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri in a crazy race.

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Mexican GP: McLaren

As in Azerbaijan, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez should favour Red Bull on the long straights, but benefit McLaren by a slightly larger margin in the chicanes and low-speed corners.

In addition, the Mexico circuit is at a high altitude above sea level, which means that the air density is lower and the engines and brakes suffer more.

This also means that despite the high downforce, drag is drastically reduced and this should be very beneficial for McLaren and Mercedes where their top speeds will increase and the gap to Red Bull will be smaller.

Brazilian GP: Mercedes

If we have said that Singapore has traditionally been a Ferrari circuit in recent years, we can say the same about Interlagos and Mercedes.

Moreover, in a Sprint weekend, the Brackley team should have a slight advantage when it comes to preparing the set-up in a single hour of Free Practice.

With a W15 upgraded from the 2023 challenger and Lewis Hamilton and George Russell in great form, a last Mercedes win for Lewis Hamilton at the home of his idol Ayrton Senna sounds like the perfect farewell for the seven-time World Champion.

Las Vegas GP: Red Bull

The Las Vegas street circuit should be Red Bull territory due to its long straights. A track where Mercedes and McLaren should suffer a bit more and where Ferrari could make a small step forward as it happened last year.

However, as it is such a special and ‘new’ circuit, there is the potential for a surprise winner.

Qatar GP: Red Bull

Qatar will be the last Sprint weekend of the 2024 calendar. A circuit with plenty of fast corners and a long main straight should be beneficial for Red Bull.

The Milton Keynes-based team will have to have implemented an upgrade to the RB20 to stay in the Constructors’ Championship fight and keep Max Verstappen’s fourth championship safe.

Abu Dhabi GP: McLaren

Max Verstappen has won the last three editions of the Abu Dhabi GP. However, this time with a strong MCL38 and a Constructors’ Championship that could perhaps be settled in the final race, we can expect a tight and even fight.

Still, McLaren should be able to break Red Bull’s dominance over the past two years to win at Yas Marina and lift its first Constructors’ trophy since 1998.

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