OPINION: Why Mercedes could be on the horizon for Liam Lawson

Liam Lawson may have secured his future with Racing Bulls for now, but it will prove impossible to avoid speculation in regard to his long-term prospects, and we have a theory.

Silly season was somewhat of a damp squib, so let’s attempt to stare into the crystal ball and see what next year’s driver market could have in store.

Liam Lawson to Mercedes?

While speaking on the latest edition of The Final Sector Podcast, I mused that I could see a future where Lawson ends up at Mercedes for the 2028 F1 season.

Judging by the reaction on social media to some of these comments shared via a graphic, I thought it best to explain the thinking behind this, because it isn’t quite as wild as it may initially seem.

Put it this way, if I can convince PlanetF1.com editor Mat Coch of this theory, a man with whom I have shared many debates of varying temperatures, then this is certainly within the realms of sanity.

To me, Lawson is one of the top three performers of the current season. Out front by some distance are Kimi Antonelli and Max Verstappen, but behind, there is a group involving Lawson, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, and Charles Leclerc. Isack Hadjar is probably just behind those, but I’ll leave a full list for the off-season.

Across the season to date, Lawson has failed to finish just once. Across the remaining 19 races, he has an average finishing position of 8.4. Given that there are four teams with vastly superior chassis than Racing Bulls, this means that on average, Lawson is finishing around one position higher than he should be.

Yes, this is often because one or more of the top drivers has a problem or makes an error, but to be in the position to capitalise on this consistently is no fluke.

He currently sits on over double the points of nearest midfield rival Pierre Gasly – 89 to 42 ahead of the Las Vegas weekend – and is four points further clear of rookie teammate Arvid Lindblad.

The fact that Lindblad is viewed as having an impressive campaign only does more to highlight the performances of Lawson, who, let’s not forget, is only in his second full F1 season.

When mentioning the top-performing drivers of the year, there were two noticeable absentees: George Russell and Oscar Piastri.

The latter has arguably not recovered from either the Italian or Azerbaijan Grands Prix last year, weekends which turned the tide of what had appeared set to be his crowning season.

Piastri is a straight shooter, and he would likely be one of the first to acknowledge this.

With changes being made in his management – Mark Webber leaving the team after a long-term relationship – action is already being taken to ensure an upturn in performance next term.

For Russell, this year has been similarly bruising to Piastri’s 2025. Although Antonelli established an early lead in the championship, Russell was always thought to be there or thereabouts on pace, with reliability issues and some unfortunately timed Safety Car interventions limiting his early points total.

But across an entire season, you have to look at the bigger picture, and there have simply been too many weekends when Russell has been unable to match Antonelli’s pace.

A point made by Mat in The Final Sector Podcast; there must be a significant mental toll on a driver when, after serving their time in a team down the order, just as Russell did with Williams, you finally get a car capable of winning the title, and the new guy in the car next to you is simply quicker.

There is no way to calculate the effect that will have on a driver. Should he bounce back and use this as ammunition to propel a title tilt next year, then these words can be consigned to history as part of a parallel universe that never came to pass, but should he continue to suffer as Piastri has, then this is where change could arrive.

Mercedes has rightly made a big thing about winning the title for the first time with three of its junior drivers at the wheel – Antonelli, Russell, and reserve driver Fred Vesti.

But scrolling through the names in the Junior setup at present, there is somewhat of a hole appearing.

Yes, F2 driver Jushua Durksen and former F2 champion Theo Pourchaire are on the books as development drivers, but neither have particularly set the world alight in recent years. Certainly, their stock is far from the level of Antonelli or Russell when they were signed.

Behind this is a roster of F4 or Formula Regional talent, all of which are at least two or three years from F1. In reality, the number is probably more like four or five years.

So, if Russell has another tough season in 2027, what does Mercedes do?

I can’t imagine that Mercedes would force Russell out of the door, but should Piastri struggle also, I could see McLaren making an approach and Russell being tempted by a fresh challenge away from a driver who could prove to be the next generational talent.

Don’t ask where this would leave Piastri, as I haven’t quite figured that out while trying to complete the puzzle in my mind.

More F1 news from PlanetF1.com

Isack Hadjar makes honest Red Bull admission in post-Marko era

Toto Wolff drops Mercedes resignation quip amid F1 future update

Aston Martin, should Honda get its act together, could be another interesting option for Russell, should he choose to depart.

Let’s not forget, Russell is out of contract at the end of the season. Both Aston Martin seats should be free at that point, with Piastri the outlier with a deal until the end of ’28.

So given Mercedes would need to wait for another driver to be ready from its own stable, the team would need to look for a consistent performer who is currently competing.

If Red Bull sees no future in the senior team for Lawson, the New Zealander would surely be a prime candidate.

Yes, there is a perfectly valid argument to be made that he sank when racing for Red Bull at the start of 2025. This is undeniable, and would enter into the thinking of any ‘top’ team sniffing around.

But Sergio Perez had a tough time with McLaren in 2013, and Red Bull still came calling. If those critical of this theory are quick enough to point to a few tough weekends as evidence that Lawson cannot cut it, then the wider evidence of the remainder of his career should also be considered.

With the evidence of his performances this term, putting myself into the shoes of Toto Wolff, there is limited room for sentimentality in F1. Should Russell bounce back and win the 2027 title, or at least run things significantly closer than this time around, no change would be needed.

But Russell is not built to be a number two driver, and should Antonelli take a second crown – or be comfortably the lead driver within the team – Russell may look for a team where he could be that number one again.

Returning to Wolff’s shoes, Lawson would have to be at the top of the list of drivers who you would consider to replace Russell. He ticks the boxes of experience and pace. Yes, he does have some rough edges, but there are few drivers without those.

Looking through the current grid, there are few other drivers who I could realistically see slotting in at Mercedes – unless Verstappen gets bored and decides to make a change, but that is a likelihood that seems to grow fainter with each year that passes.

Is there a danger that these thoughts carry a pinch of recency bias? Yes, but I have attempted to mitigate this by considering the entire campaign.

Let us know your thoughts, and if Russell or Mercedes elected to call time on their relationship, who would you put in the second seat alongside Kimi Antonelli?

To see who may be available, you can find a full list of driver contracts here, which will guide your thinking.

Read next: George Russell hit with ‘Antonelli’s Barrichello’ warning from Schumacher