Eye-opening McLaren MCL39 prediction made in ‘extraordinary’ F1 2025 regulations claim

McLaren’s current MCL39 wouldn’t be making it out of Q1 in a little over 12 months if the regulations remained stable for F1 2026.

While the dominant car in F1 at present, the MCL39 would be quickly overhauled and become a backmarker in a little over 12 months if a particular set of circumstances were to unfold.

Dan Fallows: McLaren’s MCL39 would be left behind against ‘extraordinary’ progress

Former Aston Martin technical director Dan Fallows has said the rate of progress in development of the F1 cars is so vast that, even at this late stage of the current regulations, the headroom is still available to make the current dominant car, the McLaren MCL39, a backmarker.

F1 2025 is the final year of the current ground-effect regulations, which will be thrown out in favour of active aerodynamics with a new chassis and power unit formula incoming for next year.

It’s led to a somewhat subdued final year, with McLaren’s MCL39 clearly having the legs on its rivals. With limited reward for year-long development, the teams have largely turned their attentions to the new regulations, with the cars in their current form as close to the outright potential of the regulations as is going to be reached.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of potential left in the current regulation set if they were to remain for F1 2026, believes Fallows.

“Were we to continue with these current regulations in F1 for the next two years and McLaren’s development stagnated compared to the rest of the grid, it would struggle to get out of Q1 by the end of 2026,” Fallows wrote in a column for RaceTeq.

“The pace of progress is extraordinary, as evidenced by the fate of teams that have not managed to stay with that pace.”

An example of this can be extrapolated from Red Bull’s RB19, the most dominant car in F1 history, as it won all bar one race in 2023. Using the season finale of 2023, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina, Max Verstappen’s pole position time of 1:23.445 would have seen him fail to reach Q3 at the same event in 2024.

While the current regulations are being abandoned in favour of a complete revolution for next year, Fallows believes there is plenty of potential still to exploit and that F1 is risking giving up on a strong period of competitiveness.

“It’s worth noting how excellent the racing has been,” Fallows said.

“We have had four race-winning drivers in three different cars stealing the headlines, but fascinating battles are raging in the midfield as well.

“The question is, could F1 be throwing this all away for a major upheaval in the power unit and chassis regulations for 2026?

“Ironically, the teams’ focus on being drawn to the 2026 regulations has partly helped spawn closer and more exciting racing in 2025.

“Development for 2025 is slowing down as teams concentrate on the awesome task of developing all-new cars for 2026.”

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Dan Fallows: Difficult, but not impossible, to find more performance under F1 2025 regulations

Having established his own management consultancy company, Hiperformant, earlier this summer after leaving Aston Martin, Fallows pointed out where he believes there is still plenty of potential to be exploited in the current regulations.

“It’s getting harder and harder for teams to extract more downforce from the main components of the car – and we haven’t seen genuine innovation on the floors of the cars for over a year, for example,” he said.

“Yet there are many other ways to add performance.

“Managing tyre temperature in race trim is critically important to allowing drivers to race at speed rather than under-driving to preserve tyre life.

“Thermal management prevents tyre sliding, particularly at the rear axle in corner entry, which is a common issue for cars at the limit of grip.”

The prescriptive nature of geometries means it’s “by no means simple” to find performance, Fallows said.

“The front wing, wheel bodywork and devices around the front of the floor and sidepods are critical towards managing front wheel wake, which contributes to yaw (or crosswind) sensitivity of the car,” he said.

“From 2022, the design of these areas has been much more limited than before.

“The 2025 grid has converged on largely the same aerodynamic concept; floor features and sculpted sidepods look similar.

“This is probably more evident than with previous regulations, and due to the complexity of generating usable performance under the current ruleset.

“Once a decent package has been produced, it’s extremely time-consuming and costly to pursue a different philosophy.

“With the current regulations set to end in 2026, designing a large upgrade suite would be out of the question. It’s better to expend effort on refining the existing concept, even if there may be greater rewards from another one.”

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