McLaren predict surprise race leader ‘at the end of lap 1’ at the Belgian GP

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella says he “wouldn’t be surprised” if Charles Leclerc was leading the Belgian Grand Prix at the end of lap one, using the slipstream to pass the McLaren drivers.

Lando Norris will line up on pole position for Sunday’s 44-lap Belgian Grand Prix having beaten his team-mate Oscar Piastri by 0.085s in qualifying, with Leclerc third.

McLaren team boss: I wouldn’t be surprised if Leclerc was leading

But as Piastri pointed out when he claimed pole for the shorter Sprint race, saying “Spa’s probably one of the worst places to have pole position! It is what it is.”

The Australian driver’s fear became a reality when Max Verstappen blasted past him down the Kemmel Straight and into Les Combes on the opening lap to snatch the lead. Verstappen went on to win the Sprint, keeping Piastri at bay despite the McLaren driver having DRS for 15 laps.

McLaren are hoping there won’t be a repeat of that frustration in the Grand Prix.

But even if Norris and Piastri lose the lead, Stella has told his drivers to remember that lap one is “just lap 1 of 44”, and not to risk anything even if they are overhauled by Leclerc taking advantage of their slipstream.

The Italian believes that’s a very real prospect as the Ferrari SF-25 in the hands of the Monegasque driver has good speed.

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“I think both [McLaren] drivers will try, first of all, to have the fastest run through corner one,” he said as per Motorsport.com.

“I guess positioning for the one that will be in P2, positioning the car in order to be able to take the slipstream, will be potentially a decisive factor.

“I have to say that based on the weather forecast, this is not necessarily going to happen in dry conditions, so if it’s wet it will be even more interesting, because Eau Rouge may not be easy flat, like it is nowadays on lap 1 in a Formula 1 car.

“At the same time, while you look ahead, you will have to look a little bit behind, because Ferrari has a significant speed advantage, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Leclerc is actually leading the group at the end of lap 1.

“So there’s certainly some planning that you can do, but ultimately you have to let the drivers make their own assessment, their own judgement.

“Certainly what I will tell the drivers is that lap 1 is just lap 1 of 44, and when you have such a good competitive car, you just have to make sure that we minimise the trouble during lap 1.

“And then if we execute the race in the best possible way, I think we will be in condition to regain the possibility to win the race, even if lap 1 doesn’t go according to the outcome of qualifying.”

Norris will line up on pole position chasing a third successive Grand Prix win. Winning in Austria and Silverstone, the Briton closed the gap to his championship-leading team-mate to just nine points as F1 enters the second half of the season.

The Briton predicts the racing on Sunday will be more intense than Saturday’s processional Sprint.

“I think as soon as you start to bring in some strategy and tyre differences, especially with the C1 to the C3, C4 jump, I definitely expect more racing if it was to be dry,” he explained.

“The tricky thing is you’re talking about the field being more compact than ever, which puts on a good show in qualifying and things are tight and thrilling and great to watch. But that often just makes it trickier at times for the racing.

“The gaps are smaller, you can make smaller differences from car to car and driver to driver. So, there are pros and cons in everything.

“The more we develop these cars, generally the trickier it becomes to overtake and to follow as well. It’s never an easy one to get right. But I’m sure if it was a dry race tomorrow, I’d expect more racing. I don’t expect it to be dry, so I expect just more racing and more chaos anyway.

“But I think sometimes there are some Sprints every now and then that are like that because everyone’s pushing a bit more flat out through the race. You’re thinking less of strategy. You’re not thinking of doing a one or two-stop.

“So, we’ll wait and find out.”

Mother Nature could also have a say with rain forecast during the Grand Prix after a very wet start to the day saw the Formula 3 race cancelled after just two laps under Safety Car due to adverse weather conditions.

Norris admits the rain could create a chaotic race.

“It’s probably going to rain,” he said. “I don’t know much more than that. We’ll wait and see.

“It’s Spa, so high chance of rain, but that can also mean it just sometimes hits half the track and the other half stays dry. Could be in for a Silverstone-esque chaotic race, similar to Australia or Silverstone, the ones that are sometimes a bit in the middle. Most likely some rain and drizzle. Hard to know.

“We’re going off the front, so hopefully, I can make an advantage of that and clean air and go from there.

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