How Red Bull controls Max Verstappen’s future and why he can’t leave

Speculation linking Max Verstappen with a move away from Red Bull has remained rampant, but it is far from a foregone conclusion.

That is not because he might struggle to agree terms with a new team, Mercedes the front runner for his services, but because Red Bull has the power to simply block it.

How Max Verstappen is locked to Red Bull

The ongoing drama surrounding Red Bull, coupled with its decreasing competitiveness, has seen Verstappen increasingly linked with a move away from Milton Keynes.

Conversations have taken place with Mercedes, fuelling speculation he could switch for F1 2026, though he’s also been linked with Aston Martin, where he’d reunite with Adrian Newey.

Verstappen holds a contract with Red Bull through until the end of 2028, a deal he agreed in the months after his maiden world championship win.

It is a critical element if the Dutchman is realistic about joining a new team before 2029.

All driver contracts in Formula 1 are held by the Contract Recognition Board. A function of the FIA, the CRB’s role is written into the Concorde Agreement, which decrees that the body has “exclusive jurisdiction” on contractual disputes. Indeed, a draft clause exists such that it can be easily copy and pasted into driver agreements. In part, it says;

“Accordingly the parties hereto expressly submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Contract Recognition Board with respect to matters to be determined by such Board pursuant to such Clause 7 and in particular expressly exclude the jurisdiction of any competent judicial or other body as regards interim or conservatory measures in that respect.”

The relevance of the Alpine v Oscar Piastri dispute

The CRB process is clearly defined, and is known in great detail courtesy of the dispute between Alpine and McLaren over Oscar Piastri in 2022.

Upon signing a contract, it is the team’s responsibility to send a copy in a sealed envelope (with critical details redacted) in addition to a form outlining the key details of the contract to the CRB Secretary in Gevena.

The form contains the date of execution of the contract, if it is a change, renewal, or relates to a previous contract, full names of those involved, period to which the contract relates, and details of any options to renew.

It is used to update the register, while the sealed envelope filed away for future reference if necessary. Once complete, a confirmation note is sent to the team, an important document for the driver.

Aside from being a registrar of valid contracts, the CRB is also critical in a driver’s ability to obtain an FIA Super Licence.

“A driver is not entitled to participate in the FIA Formula One World Championship unless he is in possession of Formula One Super Licence issued by the FIA. To be entitled to such a Super Licence the driver’s name has to appear on a Confirmation issued by the Board,” it was noted in the Contract Recognition Tribunal in the hearing of Piastri’s dispute.

Crucially, no driver may appear on the register more than once.

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“If two Contracts are registered with the Board by different Teams in respect of the same driver and the same period of time, or overlapping periods of time, there are said to be Conflicting Contracts (Article 7).

“Assuming both Contracts to be valid the first in time has priority,” the Tribunal outlined in Piastri’s case. “If there is any dispute as to which has priority a CRB Tribunal is appointed to rule on the issue.”

For the most part, the CRB is largely dormant unless there is a conflict, at which point it notified all parties.

If one elects to dispute the matter, it proceeds to a hearing with the Contract Review Tribunal, whereupon the sealed envelope containing the contract is opened. A decision is then made and publicly communicated via a press release confirming to which team the driver is contracted.

As Verstappen has a valid contract with Red Bull, the submission of a new deal would prompt the CRB to notify all parties that a conflicting contract has been submitted.

It would then be at Red Bull’s discretion as to whether it acquiesced to the Dutchman’s desire to leave, or stood firm and held him to the deal in place.

Put another way, the simple signing of a contract elsewhere means nothing without the agreement from Red Bull that he can break his existing contract.

Of course, there may be options and clauses that allow for an early termination, but provided one of those has not been triggered, an existing contract is essentially binding.

The Jenson Button case study

There is precedence. In 2005, Jenson Button was embroiled in a contractual saga between Williams and BAR that resulted in the Brit having to stump up £18million in order to break the agreement he’d signed with the Grove squad.

In current money, that translates to a figure of £32million. At the time, Button was reportedly on £3million (£5.3m in current money).

Having agreed an early exit fee, Button was cleared to remain with BAR.

That outcome hung on Williams’ willingness to negotiate; if it had stood its ground, Button would have had to race with the Grove squad in 2006.

That has relevance for Red Bull, as it underscores the fact Verstappen has a contract in place and he cannot simply turn his back on it and race for a rival simply because he’s unhappy or wants a more competitive car.

To do so requires the agreement of his current employer, Red Bull, with a figure of £100million floated as a potential buy-out sum. Button’s ordeal would suggest that valuation is low given Verstappen’s income thought to be 10 times what the 2009 champion was earning all those years ago.

And what is in such a deal for Red Bull? While even £100million in penalties is nothing to be sneezed at, Red Bull GmbH posted £3.2 billion in revenues last year, up 16 per cent on 2023.

The F1 team has a healthy roster of sponsors and enjoys good prize money income too. In short, it doesn’t need the cash.

Besides, allowing Verstappen free would also leave the team scrambling for a replacement driver. Even then, the market is comparatively stagnant with only George Russell realistically available.

There’s another element to it, too, as allowing Verstappen to break his contract would strengthen a rival. By blocking the move, it prevents the competition from benefiting from his prodigious services.

As such, Red Bull is in the driver’s seat when it comes to Verstappen’s future; it could choose to allow its driver to leave, but equally, it doesn’t have to.

Read more: Max Verstappen to Mercedes? Who will drive for Red Bull in F1 2026?