Red Bull politics v Red Bull plan as driver named to ‘go up for sure’

Politics and plans, Juan Pablo Montoya is convinced Arvid Lindblad will be promoted to Racing Bulls next season, but will Red Bull then axe Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson?

The former F1 driver reckons Red Bull “politics” and “Red Bull Austria” could save Tsunoda ahead of the New Zealand driver, even though if it were Helmut Marko’s decision, Tsunoda would “90 per cent be out”.

Yuki Tsunoda v Liam Lawson: All we know

⦁ ‘Politics’ at play between Marko and Austria claims Montoya
⦁ Montoya backs Tsunoda in ‘wouldn’t be so logical’ decision
⦁ Has the bridesmaid’s Red Bull engagement fallen short?

Red Bull and Racing Bulls will, as things stand, both have new drivers next season with rookie racer Isack Hadjar tipped to join Max Verstappen at the senior squad.

PlanetF1.com understands from well-informed sources that Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko has already informed Hadjar that he will step up to Red Bull next season, although other sources have indicated that conversations are ongoing. An agreement has yet to be officially signed.

Should Hadjar take the second Red Bull seat alongside Verstappen, the reigning World Champion’s current teammate Tsunoda would be without a drive for next year’s championship.

But that doesn’t mean it would be the end of his Red Bull road as he could return to Racing Bulls.

Tsunoda scored 94 of his 115 Formula 1 World Championship points with the Italian squad between 2021 and the start of F1 2025.

The knock-on from that would be Lawson’s exit as Montoya believes the one Racing Bulls seat will, under Marko’s power, will go to the team’s junior driver, Arvid Lindblad, who is currently racing in Formula 2.

Red Bull’s politics could, said Montoya, be the deciding factor between Tsunoda and Lawson in a battle between Marko v Red Bull Austria.

“I think there is a small chance because of politics and I don’t want to talk about it here,” he told the MontoyAS podcast of Tsunoda’s chances of staying on within the Red Bull camp.

“But it’s not so black and white because if I put it to you like this: if Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90 per cent he would be out.

“But right now things have changed a bit; they are a little more political. Red Bull Austria, it seems to me, wants to have a little more control of what is happening in the team.

“So now, how the decisions are made and the things that happen are going to change a bit, especially because there are three seats.

“Lindblad goes up for sure; it’s whether Yuki leaves or whether Liam Lawson leaves.

“Theoretically, that is the plan.”

F1 2025: How Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar shape up

👉 The results of the F1 2025 championship

👉 The updated Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championship standings

Montoya backs Yuki Tsunoda in ‘wouldn’t be so logical’ Red Bull decision

However, if it were up to Montoya, the Red Bull plan would be to leave the Red Bull line-ups as they are: Verstappen and Tsunoda, and Lawson and Hadjar.

Although Tsunoda struggled to get the most out of his RB21 when he first joined Red Bull, he’s brought in four points-scoring results in the last seven races to bring his tally to 28 points.

It’s a long way off from Verstappen’s 341, but it is an improvement, one Montoya reckons Tsunoda could build on next season with Formula 1’s all-new cars.

“If you look, Yuki has done a good job compared to what Lawson could have done and what everyone in that Red Bull car has done until now,” he said. “So the work Yuki is doing is not ideal, but he has improved.

“So, if they give Yuki one more year, I think Yuki will be able to start aligning things. So it wouldn’t be so logical to take him out.

“And Lawson and Hadjar are finishing in the points, both of them.”

But, he added: “Where Helmut doesn’t have 100 per cent control of the decisions, everything is not so clear.

“If you look at it from the outside, if you take Helmut out of there and look at the results of the four drivers they have for three seats, they deserve to continue. So the problem is that there is a lot of politics and everything.

“On one hand, I think Yuki still has very strong political ties within Red Bull that can keep him there, and on the other hand, everyone still has a bit of a chance there. If they were to take someone out, the most probable would be Yuki.”

Yuki Tsunoda: Has the bridesmaid’s Red Bull engagement fallen short?

Unfortunately for Tsunoda and the dream of remaining “at the same team next year”, that looks set to be crushed with Hadjar tipped to replace him as Verstappen’s next teammate.

And Hadjar’s promotion is likely to end Tsunoda’s time with the Red Bull family.

Having been overlooked last year for the Red Bull seat in favour of Lawson, then team principal Christian Horner explained: “I think the feeling within the team is that the trajectory Liam is on has more potential, which is why we’ve taken that route.”

He also made it clear that, if Tsunoda remained at Racing Bulls, his time at the Red Bull organisation would be on the clock as the team wasn’t there to give him a seat but to develop talent for a future Red Bull promotion.

“We’re acutely aware that if we’re not able to provide an opportunity for Yuki in all honesty this year, does it [keeping him on] make sense?,” said the Briton. “You can’t have a driver in the support team for five years.

“You can’t always be the bridesmaid. You’ve either got to let them go at that point or look at something different.”

Now, having been given his chance at being the bride, but falling well short of the bar set by Verstappen, Tsunoda’s Red Bull dream may have come true, but it could yet be the catalyst in his Formula 1 exit.

The Japanese driver had been linked to a reserve role at Aston Martin for the F1 2026 given Honda will become the Silverstone team’s engine partner, though the announcement of Jak Crawford in that role complicates matters.

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