Antonelli and Russell telemetry data settles Mercedes Monza strategy debate

Kimi Antonelli has become only the second driver in Formula 1 history to win a race starting from P19 or lower.

While this was undeniably his masterclass, telemetry data offers a slightly different perspective, revealing just how many factors played a role in his victory.

Kimi Antonelli data emerges behind huge Monza win

If you want to win a race starting from P19, you simply must have a fast car, drive remarkably well, and have a bit of luck on your side. During the Italian GP, Kimi had all three.

The Italian started the race on hard tyres, aiming to extend his stint as long as possible and capitalise on a potential Safety Car. In his situation, that was virtually the only viable strategy other than starting on softs and pitting as early as possible. Any other “standard” strategy goes out the window.

Despite starting on the slower compound, Kimi made remarkable progress. By the time Leclerc brought out the red flags, he had climbed to P13, and on the very first lap after the restart, he surged all the way up to P6.

That is P19 to P6 in just three racing laps.

From there, armed with a fresh power unit, he easily dispatched the cars ahead, finding himself in P2, right in his teammate’s mirrors, by Lap 16. From that point until the end of the race, the two drivers fought for a victory crucial to both.

After several laps of yo-yo racing between them, Verstappen, sitting in P3, managed to close the gap to nearly a second, forcing the team to act. From the graph below, we can see how their lap times rose during their wheel-to-wheel scrap, only to drop again as they pulled away from Max once the team called off the fight.

It would have been fascinating to see how that battle would have played out given their almost identical pace, but a Virtual Safety Car on Lap 28 split their strategies.

And now we arrive at the crucial question: should Mercedes have pitted Russell as well?

From Antonelli’s perspective, the decision was straightforward. Having restarted the race on medium tyres, he had to take advantage of a cheaper pit stop. At Monza, a pit stop under the VSC saves roughly 9 seconds compared to green-flag conditions (around 15 seconds compared to 24 seconds).

But what would have happened if Russell had pitted too? Assuming the team executed a flawless double stack, he likely would have rejoined behind Gasly, about 9 seconds adrift of Piastri at the race lead, with Hamilton and Norris also ahead.

With the pace both drivers would have unlocked on fresh rubber, clearing those cars wouldn’t have been a daunting task. In other words, we would have seen a reprise of the pre-VSC battle, just on a fresh set of tyres.

However, pulling the trigger on a double stack at that moment carries massive risk. Max was lurking behind the entire time, and from a team perspective, splitting the strategy was simply the safest option.

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At that moment, it was impossible to gauge just how much performance fresh tyres would deliver or whether enough laps remained to overtake Max if he chose to stay out. Therefore, the team’s decision was entirely correct.

Kimi simply lucked into being the driver in greater need of a pit stop, given he was running mediums compared to George on hards. The VSC timing was ideal for him, and Kimi was perfectly positioned to capitalise on the cheap pit stop.

On fresh rubber, the Italian was remarkably quick. On average, he was chipping away 0.8 seconds per lap on the Briton, even while carving through traffic. He caught his teammate on Lap 47, leaving him just enough laps to make his move.

Russell stood virtually no chance of defending, despite driving flat-out. Telemetry shows he was consistently improving his lap times during that phase, wringing every drop of performance out of tyres over 40 laps old.

Kimi Antonelli certainly benefited from a healthy dose of luck, without which he likely wouldn’t have pulled off this result, but that takes nothing away from the extraordinary drive he delivered today. What is certain is that this race will be remembered for his drive, and deservedly so.

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