Have McLaren opened the door for a major Max Verstappen turnaround? The grid weighs in

Max Verstappen has doubled his F1 2025 win total in the last two races of the season following his back-to-back victories in Monza and Baku, and plenty of folks on the grid are wondering if this is the start of a major comeback by the reigning champion.

As things currently stand, Max Verstappen is 69 points in arrears of championship leader Oscar Piastri — a major gap to be sure, but one that theoretically could be surmounted in the final seven grands prix of the season.  Let’s find out what the F1 field has to say.

McLaren: Opening the door for another Max Verstappen championship?

McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were the clear title favorites heading into the F1 2025 season. The team’s major upgrade at the 2024 Miami Grand Prix saw it secure the world constructors’ championship and open up the possibility for Norris to challenge reigning champion Max Verstappen in the latter stages of the year. And once pre-season testing confirmed that the papaya team looked strong, it seemed almost assured it would dominate in 2025.

Now, 17 rounds into the 24-race season, things aren’t quite so assured. Yes, Max Verstappen remains third in the title standings, trailing championship leader Oscar Piastri by 69 points. But the driver’s absolute dominance in both Monza and Baku have many wondering if a fifth title could be in sight.

While part of that comes down to Verstappen’s ability to extract everything from a race car (even the notoriously challenging and unbalanced RB21), more of it looks to be coming down to McLaren’s fumbles.

In Monza, Verstappen simply drove away from the field after both McLaren drivers failed to put together clean laps in qualifying.

In Baku, it was more of the same, though McLaren was even further off the pace. Piastri crashed in both qualifying and the race, while Norris simply couldn’t exceed a seventh-place worthy pace. The meager points total from the weekend opened the door to Verstappen.

More 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix analysis:

👉 Winners and losers from the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

👉 Azerbaijan GP conclusions: Piastri SOS, Lando’s big problem, Max’s post-Horner wavelength

Now, a 69-point gap is huge. No driver in this modern era has been able to overturn that kind of deficit. But with Verstappen, it seems that most of the F1 field is prepared to concede it could be possible.

Let’s start first with Andrea Stella. Following McLaren’s difficult qualifying session in Baku, the team principal conceded that “the takeaway from the Monza race, and the way we have reviewed this internally and set our mindset for the final one-third of the races, was that Red Bull’s performance in Monza should not be considered a one-off because of Monza or a one-off because of low downforce.

“They have taken a new floor in Monza, and they might be setting up their car slightly differently.

“Now Verstappen is talking about grounding much more than he was doing before, so they might have unlocked performance.

“I would not be surprised at all that Red Bull may continue the streak that they have started – because pole position in Monza, victory, and now pole position here.

“Red Bull are a very serious contender to win races and a very serious contender for the Drivers’ Championship.”

That new Red Bull floor is critical. Where drivers Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda were previously complaining about feeling unbalanced in corners and unable to extract the most pace from the car, this new floor seems to have rectified most of those problems, thereby once again allowing Verstappen’s name to enter the championship conversation.

After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Stella doubled down in saying that he still believes Verstappen could be a title threat, though he softened the blow by noting McLaren understood Baku would be one of its weaker tracks.

“We will see now in Singapore, which should be more of a one in which we should perform well,” Stella told media. “Hopefully we can go back to fighting for victories, and then we will see how the rest of the championship will unfold.

“But definitely Max is in contention for the drivers’ championship. We knew it, and we got confirmation today.”

What is the rest of the grid saying about Max Verstappen?

Andrea Stella isn’t the only person in the Formula 1 paddock singing Max Verstappen’s praises after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Asked about the likelihood of Verstappen becoming a threat for the World Championship, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff said it’s entirely possible.

“He’s had a good run, the car is good, and you know, Max Verstappen, you always need to be wary of what he can achieve, especially if he’s seeing that that is actually back on the cards,” Wolff claimed.

After being informed of Verstappen’s 69-point gap to the lead, he added, “Well, that’s a long shot. Things need to work in his favor. But you can see a DNF for the championship leader, and Max scoring 25 points, you can see things swing quickly.”

Jonathan Wheatley of Sauber, who used to work at Red Bull with Max Verstappen, claimed, “What’s the phrase; the cream rises to the top?

“I mean, I watched his onboard for his qualifying yesterday. He never looked like he was going to hit a wall. He’s just extraordinary; he knows how to get the most out of that car.

“Maybe it’s two circuits that really suit his car. I’ve been constantly enjoying watching him racing for the last, I don’t know, since 2014 or something, and this weekend’s another example of that. It was a masterclass.”

Yuki Tsunoda, Verstappen’s teammate, was asked to comment on his feelings regarding the upgraded RB21, and whether or not the car can be competitive everywhere.

“I think definitely we are more confident in the coming races to perform better,” Tsunoda said, “so I’m sure we’re not giving up with this season, especially securing drivers’ championship for Max. I’ll try to extract performance as much as possible from the car that I have, and also at the same time for some races, if I can support him that would be [good].”

Over in the Scuderia Ferrari garage, Charles Leclerc admitted, “I think Max is not leaving anything on the table, that’s for sure.

“I think they’ve done a big step forward with the car, and they are now at a very strong level as well.

“I don’t think that it’s been a very smooth weekend for McLaren in the last two weekends, so I don’t think Red Bull is now dominating again. I think it’s very close between McLaren and Red Bull, but Max is doing a better job at the moment.”

Even Oscar Piastri admitted that he’s “not gonna rule [Max] out” in his post-race interview, even though he also noted that “I’m honestly not too concerned with that. I’m just trying to bounce back from this weekend and put in the best performances that I can, and I know that if I get back to where I can be, then I’ll be more than okay.”

And Lando Norris, too, had plenty of praise for Verstappen, though he argues that Baku and Monza simply haven’t suited the McLarens.

“Max was winning races already at the beginning of the year, he could have won round one, I think he was pretty close to winning round two.

“The whole season they’ve been quick,” he admitted. “The Red Bull has been good, they brought some upgrades to Monza which seems to have helped them improve even more.

“So, not a surprise, I think we know that they’re an incredibly strong team and have one of the best drivers ever in Formula 1, so we expect nothing less.

“They’re going to make our life difficult I think for the rest of the season but we also know from our side, we struggled a bit here, Monza clearly we’re not quick enough.

“We’ve made improvements but things where the Red Bull have been so good and dominant in the past, they still have and we don’t.

“Today when I was following the Red Bull, there was clearly some areas where they were just another level to us and we need to understand why.”

But how could Max Verstappen win the F1 2025 title?

There are seven grands prix remaining in the F1 2025 title, as well as three sprint races. On average, 28.4 points are available every weekend.

If Oscar Piastri were to fail to score another point this year, then Verstappen would only need to score 10 points (the equivalent of a fifth-place finish) per race weekend to bridge the gap — something that seems entirely doable for a driver who has scored an average of 15 points (the equivalent of finishing third) per weekend.

However, counting on Piastri to fail to score points is foolish; discounting his DNF in Baku, his worst performance in 2025 was ninth in the season opener. Even including the DNF as a 20th-place, Piastri’s average finish in 2025 is 3.4.

Let’s imagine a hypothetical situation where Piastri only finishes third the rest of the year. That’d leave him with a total of 447 points come the checkered flag in Abu Dhabi. If Max won every single race for the remainder of the year, he’d amass 198 points, leaving him with a total of 453 points.

Yes, that’s championship-worthy… but the six-point margin in question is slim, and it relies on a significant downturn on the part of the McLaren, as well as a dominant showing from Verstappen. Neither of those things are guarantees.

Theoretically, Verstappen is still in the hunt. A championship is still possible, but it requires perfection from Red Bull and disaster from McLaren — two things we have yet to see consistently this season.

Read next: PF1 Postbox: Horner severs Red Bull ties, and is Max Verstappen a title contender again?