Has Hamilton backed the wrong horse amidst F1 2026 ‘rumour and conjecture’?
Lewis Hamilton was visibly emotional in Hungary.
Amidst speculation Mercedes may have the best power unit on the grid next season, F1 TV’s Alex Jacques has pondered whether Lewis Hamilton has backed the wrong horse for F1 2026.
Swapping Mercedes for Ferrari in a decision inspired even before the first lap of the F1 2024 season, Hamilton effectively staked his bet on an eighth World title on Ferrari either nailing the current regulations in their final season or getting it right in F1 2026.
Has Lewis Hamilton swapped horse power for the horse?
F1 2025, the last year of the current regulation cycle is not going to plan.
Although Ferrari challenged McLaren in the second part of last year, the Italian stable has failed to kick on in the same manner as McLaren and sits P2 in the Constructors’ Championship, 299 points off the pace.
Neither Hamilton nor Charles Leclerc have secured a grand prix win although the Monegasque driver has five podiums, whereas Hamilton has none.
With 10 races remaining this season, the focus – and anticipation – is switching to F1 2026 when F1 will put all-new cars and engines on grid. It’s the latter that pundits believe could, at least in the first year or two of competition, determined the pecking order.
And the last time F1 changed engine formula, it was Mercedes who came to the fore in a seven-year championship run.
Formula 1’s season of change: F1 2026 explained
👉 F1 2026 tech analysed: The future of overtaking and biggest car advantage identified
👉 F1 2026 driver line-up: Lewis Hamilton and other drivers already confirmed for 2026
Whispers in the pit lane claim the Woking team may have once again nailed the ICE, all it’s all about the battery now with Formula 1 move to a 50/50 split between internal combustion power and battery power.
According to F1 TV pundit Jacques, Hamilton may have bet on the wrong horse power.
“So, the new regulations for next year are the most dramatic change year to year of the technical rulebook that I can think of in the history of Formula 1,” Jacques told F1 Oversteer.
“It’s very dramatic what’s going to be required. And I think the majority of people in the paddock expect – and it’s very, very similar to what we had in 2014 with the new engine formula there – a lot of people expect Mercedes to have created the class of the field engine.
“Now, obviously, this is all rumour and conjecture; you have no way of knowing, but obviously, these power units have been on the dyno for a long time, and people talk about what numbers they’re getting compared to others.
“These people grow up in the sport together, and these whispers emerge. No full way to know until we go testing, formally in Bahrain next year, but the expectation is that much like the last dramatic rules reset we had of power units in 2014, the Mercedes are expected to have done a strong job.”
How long it will take for Ferrari, and rivals to catch up, only time will tell with 40-year-old Hamilton committed to Ferrari for F1 2026 with a reported option for 2027 as well.
“And then the question becomes,” Jacques continued< "where is everyone else relative? Is it simply a case that you must have a Mercedes power unit to compete? I think there’s been a bit of discussion about the rules. “The one thing that I’d stress is there was a lot of discussion about the new rules in 2014 when they came in, and we’ve had some of the best years in the history of Formula 1 since then. So, these things are dramatic when they come in, and they evolve quickly due to the rampant rate of development in Formula 1. “So, wherever we begin with the rules, it will evolve very, very quickly. But yeah, excited to see how it plays out, because it’s a completely different formula. “I also think that you’re always going to get everyone converging and not a massive spread on the lap times, purely because it’s the budget cap. “I think that rule has done wonders for Formula 1 and led to the most competitive era. If you consider that, you know, Senna used to be on pole from Alain Prost in the late 80s by 1.7 seconds, and now a margin like that covers the entire field in Q1. It’s remarkable.” Read next: Vasseur exposes McLaren boon as Ferrari and Red Bull distracted by F1 rumours
