How McLaren can win the F1 2025 title in Baku

McLaren heads into this weekend’s Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix with a chance to wrap up the F1 2025 Constructors’ Championship.

Such has been the squad’s dominance that, with seven races remaining beyond Baku, the papaya squad can wrap up its second successive teams’ title this weekend.

McLaren on verge of historic F1 title win

McLaren heads to Azerbaijan with 617 points to its name, while nearest rival Ferrari boasts just 280 – a difference of 337 points.

With seven races remaining after Baku, three of which are Sprint events, a maximum of 346 points will be available for the balance of the season.

Provided McLaren holds that advantage when the chequered flag falls on Sunday, it will hold an unassailable lead in the Constructors’ Championship.

It’s a significant accomplishment, the realisation of a year or more of toil from not only those at the track, but back at the factory, unseen by the world’s television cameras.

And with that success come all the trappings; prestige, staff bonuses, and healthy amounts of prize money.

With F1 paying out prize money based on a team’s performance in the Constructors’ Championship, winning the title gives a team the greatest slice of the pie.

McLaren is estimated to pocket an estimated $90 million, based on the first two quarters of 2025 – entitlements are based on the previous year’s finishing order, with payments made based on the commercial rights holder’s revenue from the current season.

It’s a sum that’s likely to drop slightly for 2026 with the addition of Cadillac to the grid, but even still it amounts to a significant portion of a team’s annual budget.

First, however, McLaren must wrap up the title. To achieve that goal, there are three criteria: one each for the three rivals who maintain a mathematical chance of success.

Red Bull sits fourth in the standings with 239 points, with its task the hardest of all.

To have the championship fight continue it must amass at least 33 points/ Put another way, Max Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda must both appear on the podium. Should Verstappen (or Tsunoda) win the race, their teammate must be sixth or better.

However, that relies on McLaren not scoring a single point. The last time that happened was the 2023 Canadian Grand Prix, 54 races ago. Put another way, Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris fifth or better is a torpedo to Red Bull’s hopes.

Sitting 21 points better off than Red Bull heading to Baku, Mercedes’ job is marginally easier, though it still requires besting McLaren by at least 12 points.

A one-two would do nicely and keep the Silver Arrows in the fight for at least another weekend, and at least needs a fourth-place finish for George Russell or Kimi Antonelli without a McLaren in the top 10.

It’s a far more realistic chance than Red Bull’s, but a long shot nonetheless.

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Finally, Ferrari, the only team McLaren must outscore in order to wrap up the season. The maths between the two teams is simple; should McLaren score nine points more than Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc combined, the championship is over.

A one-three for McLaren would be good enough, regardless of where the two red cars finished, with a car in fifth and no Ferrari in the points would also seal the deal.

McLaren’s seemingly inevitable victory will mark its second in a row, and 10th in total – moving it into a clear second place of most successful teams of all time behind Ferrari.

It would also be the fourth time the Woking operation has won the title in consecutive seasons, having achieved the feat in 1984-85, 1988-89, and 1990-91.

Once the Constructors’ Championship is done and dusted, intrigue will then fall exclusively on which of the two McLaren drivers will win the world title: Piastri or Norris.

McLaren becomes F1 2026 Constructors’ Championship if…

• McLaren scores nine more points than Ferrari
• Mercedes does not score 12 points more than McLaren
• Red Bull does not score 33 points more than McLaren

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