Uncovered: Why Lewis Hamilton cannot unlock pace in the Ferrari SF-25

After the worst qualifying result of Lewis Hamilton’s career in Las Vegas, his on-track performance again failed to improve this weekend in Qatar.

The seven-time world champion did not manage to reach Q2 in either qualifying or sprint qualifying, finishing both sessions in P18. It is clear that the problem Hamilton is facing with Ferrari’s car is far deeper than it appears – so let’s use the data to uncover what is actually going on.

Historically Poor Results for Lewis Hamilton

Including sprint qualifying, this is now the third consecutive time that Hamilton has failed to progress into Q2 or SQ2. A result that simply does not fit the name Lewis Hamilton or anything we associate with his long F1 career.

Although the SF-25 is far from a fast car and certainly not at the level expected from Ferrari, it is important to note that in all three of the mentioned qualifying sessions, Charles Leclerc did make it into Q3. Admittedly, even he has struggled for performance, never doing better than P9 in any attempt.

Still, it is completely obvious that something is fundamentally wrong inside the team, which simply cannot find a solution.

After Hamilton’s poor sprint qualifying, it made perfect sense for the team to change the car’s setup, start from the pit lane, and use the sprint as a test session. What is worrying is that, after the sprint, Hamilton said that somehow the car felt even slower and more difficult to drive than before. The test attempt had failed – and that became even clearer just hours later after another P18 for Lewis.

To understand where Hamilton is losing time, we compared his fastest Q1 lap with Leclerc’s.

Through the first three corners, the two Ferrari cars were almost identical. In the fast T4 and T5, Leclerc found more grip, but Hamilton recovered that deficit immediately in the following turn.

The real drop in performance begins in the slow Turn 10, which is followed by the fastest section of the circuit.

The data shows how much quicker Leclerc was through the stretch between Turns 12 and 15. It also shows that Hamilton even tapped the brake at the apex of Turn 14. By comparison, Oscar Piastri was flat-out through this corner.

Looking closely at Hamilton’s lap, he did not make a major mistake that would severely compromise his time. Aside from a slight oversteer moment in T6 and the fact that Gasly slightly disrupted his line through Turn 1, Lewis simply had no margin to improve.

And this is especially worrying, because it suggests Hamilton is lacking raw pace. The car has no grip – understeer in some corners, oversteer in others – which raises even more questions. It also remains unclear why the team chose to send Hamilton so early on his final Q1 attempt, preventing him from benefitting from Qatar’s strong track evolution.

A similar picture emerges when comparing sprint qualifying laps. Up to Turn 10, Hamilton and Leclerc were wheel-to-wheel, before Leclerc once again pulled away through the faster corners. Unlike main qualifying where Hamilton only braked at the apex of T14, in sprint qualifying he braked through both T13 and T14.

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Ferrari’s Car Is Not Only Slow, but Difficult to Drive

Leclerc’s own sprint race confirmed just how difficult the SF-25 is, despite his comparatively better results. His opening lap was particularly chaotic – he struggled to keep control of the car through almost every corner, losing several positions and dropping out of the fight for points.

The graph below shows the average lap times of each team throughout the weekend. Focusing on Ferrari (red colour), we can see that their improvement from sprint qualifying to the main race qualifying was among the smallest of the entire grid – matched only by Williams and Aston Martin.

This graph perfectly illustrates the situation Ferrari is currently in. Having a problem with the car is one thing, failing to solve it over and over again shows that the issue lies much deeper.

The Italian team has now dropped to fourth in the Constructors’ Championship, and it is highly likely they will remain there until the end of the season. This is certainly not the result anyone expected after announcing the arrival of Lewis Hamilton.

Both drivers sounded extremely disappointed after qualifying, and it genuinely seems as though the entire Maranello squad is simply counting down the days until the season ends and a new opportunity in 2026 arrives.

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