Kimi Antonelli has pole, but Max Verstappen has three key advantages for Austin

Following a total collapse in pace from Ferrari, Kimi Antonelli emerged as the man to beat ahead of the main race in the United States on a circuit where pole position by no means guarantees victory.

However, Sunday is shaping up as the day for number 3. Chasing his third consecutive victory, Max Verstappen arrives far better prepared than things might initially appear – and the data explains why.

Car No.3 pushing for Sunday’s win

Both Antonelli and Verstappen spent much of the weekend in Ferrari’s shadow, at least until qualifying, with the Italian squad looking formidable – especially during FP3, when their straight-line speed deficit appeared far less severe than on Friday.

However, right from the opening flying laps in Q3, it became clear the battle for pole would boil down to the four-time World Champion and the young Italian chasing his first world title. Antonelli was faster by 0.18 seconds, and telemetry reveals exactly how he pulled it off.

Antonelli carved out an initial advantage right at Turn 1, picking up a tenth of a second; despite taking a wider entry, the track in Texas is very wide here and allows for alternative racing lines. Yet through the opening sweeps of the iconic Sector 1 esses, Max immediately fought his way back into contention.

By the end of Sector 1, the Dutchman had swung the advantage in his favour by around 0.06 seconds. However, he surrender it once more through the Turn 7 and Turn 8 sequence, where the lap time delta shifted back to the Mercedes driver and remained there until the finish line.

In fact, from Turn 8 to the end of the middle sector, both drivers remained remarkably evenly matched. Both Mercedes and Red Bull boast strong top-speed characteristics, leaving little to separate them along the main straight.

However, once into the final sector, Antonelli’s lead began to stretch out once again. What makes this interesting is that Mercedes generally struggled through Sector 3 during the final hour of practice.

Earlier, the W17 showed a tendency to overheat its rear soft tyres, unsettling the car’s balance and leaving drivers wrestling with both oversteer and understeer across this technically demanding section. Yet everything clicked in qualifying – at least for Antonelli. He actually logged the fastest Sector 3 time of anyone, despite Ferrari having dominated this part of the track all weekend.

Turn 19 was particularly telling: Antonelli entered the corner with lower top speed than Verstappen, who ran a more aggressive electrical deployment profile along the short burst between Turn 18 and Turn 19. Despite that, Kimi braked noticeably later than Max and carried higher apex speed, as clearly illustrated in the graph below.

Onboard footage confirms just how aggressive the Italian was through this corner, flirting right on the edge of track limits at corner exit.

What can we expect from the race?

As noted, COTA is a venue where starting on pole position offers zero guarantees – especially with the famous uphill run into Turn 1, where anything can happen. That uphill run will undoubtedly present Max with his first and best opportunity to take charge of the Grand Prix.

A crucial detail that could decide the run into Turn 1 is that Verstappen has a brand-new set of soft tyres in his allocation. He proved during qualifying that he could set blistering times on used softs, preserving a fresh set of soft tyres – a strategic luxury Antonelli lacks.

Given that several drivers conducted their FP2 race simulations on the soft compound, it would come as no surprise to see the Dutchman opt for that aggressive strategy at the start.

The telemetry also favours Verstappen over a long run. On the soft compound, Max delivered a faster and more consistent stint with lower degradation compared to Antonelli, who ran his race simulation on the medium compound.

The gap is relatively small, at just over a tenth of a second per lap on average. Their race pace on Sunday should therefore be closely matched.

Naturally, neither Ferrari nor McLaren can be ruled out, as McLaren also showed encouraging long-run pace. We could very easily see a three- or even four-way battle for the win in Austin.

COTA rarely fails to deliver a thriller, and this edition promises to be no exception.

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