Canadian Grand Prix weather: High chance of rain affecting race day

The Canadian Grand Prix is almost upon us, and the weather forecast in Montréal suggests a wet weekend might be on the way.

All conditions have been on the table at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in the past and, with the sport visiting several weeks earlier than last season, it is not due to be as warm as some seasons.

Canadian Grand Prix weather: What is the weekend’s forecast?

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Forecast correct as of Wednesday 20 May, subject to change

Friday 22 May [FP1, Sprint qualifying]

After approaching almost 30°C in the week, temperatures are due to drop significantly for the Canadian Grand Prix weekend.

Friday is set to be the clearest day of the weekend, however, with early forecasts suggesting a dry, sunny day in the area, no rain on the agenda and only a light breeze in the air.

Air temperature is due to hit highs of 19°C, with the drivers undertaking FP1 before Sprint qualifying later in the day.

Saturday 23 May [Sprint, race qualifying]

Cooler conditions are due to meet the drivers on Saturday, and early estimates suggest a 40% chance of light rain in late morning, which could play a part in the Sprint at lunchtime.

A 50% chance of light rain is currently forecast throughout Saturday afternoon, which may have an impact on qualifying, with a maximum air temperature of 18°C.

Sunday 24 May [Canadian Grand Prix]

An even higher chance of rain is predicted for Sunday’s race, with a 60-70% chance of light rain through most of the day building up to lights out in Montréal.

For the race start at 4pm local time, a 65% chance of light rain is predicted along with a light breeze, with air temperatures of 19°C.

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How has the weather been at previous Canadian Grands Prix?

Due to its temperate climate, any conditions are possible in Montréal, with several races having been held at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in wet conditions in years gone by.

The most notable wet race in Canada was the 2011 event, which endured a mid-race rain delay of more than two hours and, come the finish, set a new record for the longest Formula 1 round ever from lights to flag at four hours, four minutes.

Jenson Button staged a thrilling comeback through the field to recover from early contact with his McLaren teammate, Lewis Hamilton, falling to last in the field and rising all the way back through, Button overtaking Sebastian Vettel on the last lap to take the most unlikely of wins.

With wet running having been limited in the 2026 machinery so far, former F1 driver Martin Brundle feels there could be action on the cards if a rainy race takes place.

“The drivers are all a little bit scared of just what these cars are going to be like in the rain,” he told Sky F1.

“They have got so much power and less downforce, less grip, and they don’t know yet.

“Nobody really had that opportunity to push them in a competitive situation, so we could see some drama.

“Only one in the last eight Grands Prix in Montreal have gone without the Safety Car of some kind because if you crash, you remain on the race track, effectively. It’s a pretty challenging layout in that respect, old school, and we love it.”

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