Montoya predicts shock driver market changes should Verstappen join Mercedes

Should Max Verstappen join George Russell at Mercedes next season, the knock-on from that will be Carlos Sainz heads to Red Bull and Kimi Antonelli replaces the Spaniard at Williams.

That’s according to former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya.

Max Verstappen to Mercedes, Carlos Sainz to Red Bull, Kimi Antonelli to Williams?

Formula 1 is waiting in suspense to learn what Verstappen decides to do in F1 2026, as that will determine the fate of several other drivers. Most notably, the Mercedes pairing.

Russell and Antonelli are in the final months of their Mercedes agreements and both face an uncertain future despite Russell recording his best season ever in Formula 1, and is the only driver outside of McLaren and Verstappen to win a Grand Prix, while Antonelli is this year’s leading rookie.

But it is four-time World Champion Verstappen who Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff could steal from Red Bull, having previously said he “certainly” regrets not signing the Dutch racing driver when he had the opportunity before he joined up with Red Bull.

Should Verstappen join Mercedes, it’s long been speculated that he would replace Russell while Antonelli would stay on as the 27-year-old’s team-mate.

However, Montoya has a different take on how it could all play out.

“If Max leaves and they [Mercedes] don’t burn themselves on George, then Red Bull will probably sign Carlos Sainz,” Montoya told AS Colombia. “And then they put Kimi at Williams. That gives Antonelli time to develop, just like they did with George.

“I think they [Red Bull] had the option to bring in Carlos, but Max didn’t want Carlos as a team-mate. That makes it complicated.

“Although I don’t think Max has been given the option or the right to say who he wants as a team-mate at Mercedes. That’s the only thing I don’t think he will get, of what he does have at Red Bull.”

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Last season, after Sainz signed a multi-year agreement to join Williams, it was suggested that an exit clause was in place that would allow him to leave the team if one of Formula 1 top teams came calling.

Williams denied this in a brief statement: “We can confirm this is not true. There has been no conversation regarding this – it is complete speculation from these other media sources.”

Sainz also reaffirm his committed to Williams last month when he quizzed on whether he’d want Verstappen’s seat should the reigning World Champion leave RedBull.

“I think first of all, things you’re commenting on, at the moment it looks like it’s rumours,” Sainz told the media, including PlanetF1.com, at Silverstone.

“I don’t know how much of the truth is going on on that end of things, but Williams knows that my commitment for the next two years and beyond, if the situation allows. I believe the trajectory we’re on, and I am very confident with the choice I made.”

The Spaniard, though, is still perplexed as to why Red Bull didn’t snap him up when they had the opportunity as he spoke with teams up and down the grid last year after being informed that Ferrari would not renew his contract.

Perhaps stemming from Helmut Marko’s claim that the “atmosphere between the two at Toro Rosso was quite toxic” when they were team-mates in 2015, Sainz insists they had a good rivalry back then and today they get on very well.

“The only thing I could say is that I genuinely get on well with Max,” he said on the High Performance podcast. “This is what people don’t see from the outside.

“We had a rivalry in our first year in Formula 1 at Toro Rosso, but it was a relatively healthy rivalry in terms of how we used to go about racing. And now we get on really well.

“If that’s the reason, I don’t understand why they wouldn’t want me next to Max, because I think we would actually be a very strong pairing in Formula 1.”

The Spaniard believes he could do the job for Red Bull alongside Verstappen.

“I think everyone is having a really tough time being Max’s team-mate,” he said. “I can only say that when I was Max’s team-mate, I didn’t have this tough time.

“I was obviously incredibly surprised by how quick he was. I mean, he’s an insane driver. He’s probably going to become one of the best ever in history, if he’s not already one.”

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