McLaren’s conundrum: Will Max Verstappen capitalise on wilting Oscar Piastri?

McLaren’s desire to maintain parity between its drivers this year is in danger of costing both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri the chance of the title.

After having the first half of the season all to itself, McLaren’s confidence that no other team could close the gap is beginning to show signs of backfiring.

Did McLaren halt car development too soon?

With a controlled victory on race day in Austin, Max Verstappen has closed to just 40 points behind Oscar Piastri with five race weekends to go, having entered the event 63 points down on the Australian.

At a track where McLaren’s supposed tyre advantage was likely to re-emerge, given the high temperatures and abrasive surface, the weekend began badly with the unlucky circumstances of the first turn of the Sprint race, triggered by Piastri’s failure to recognise the possibility of other cars attacking him into the corner.

From there, McLaren’s weekend was compromised: With no useful long-run data in race conditions from the Sprint, this handed a big advantage to rivals such as Red Bull and Ferrari, with both teams taking clear steps forward in performance from the Sprint.

The onslaught from Verstappen in recent races has been eye-opening. 97 points behind Piastri after the Hungarian Grand Prix, in which the Dutch driver finished a distant ninth and over a minute behind, McLaren appeared to have thought its car performance advantage was sufficient to be able to switch off and coast the rest of the season and allow its two drivers to squabble in a purely intra-team fight.

While Red Bull was struggling to unlock performance, it was always clear the RB21 had inherent pace. With victories in Japan and Emilia Romagna, as well as occasional pole positions, the question was whether Verstappen’s team would concede; consider the championship a write-off, and switch its focus to the low-hanging fruits the F1 2026 regulations promise.

Certainly, McLaren seemed to think this was what its rivals were doing, and the MCL39 has had little by way of upgrades introduced since the second half of the season began. In contrast, Red Bull has been rolling out constant minor tweaks and revisions. Not just for the sake of performance, but for confidence that the correlation issues that has plagued the team for almost two years are behind it.

These tweaks have transformed the Red Bull. From sporadically fast but unbalanced, the RB21 now appears supple and giving Verstappen exactly what he needs from a car in order to perform at his best.

Events like Monza and Azerbaijan allowed McLaren to deny the dawning reality, given the idiosyncratic nature of the low-downforce circuits where Verstappen won back-to-back events, but Singapore was a wake-up call. At a circuit where Red Bull has been weak in recent years, the only stumbling block of a dominant 2023 season, Verstappen managed second and to close further points in on Norris and Piastri.

But, after COTA, alarm bells should be turning into alarm klaxons for McLaren. While clearly still close to the best car on the grid, its lack of advantage in qualifying trim means that Norris and Piastri aren’t controlling things from the front any longer. If a Red Bull, a Ferrari, or a Mercedes is in front, it’s not a given that an overtake is possible and, like what happened with Norris and Charles Leclerc, McLaren’s races can now be compromised quite badly.

More worryingly, Red Bull’s control at a ‘normal’ race circuit such as COTA shows that, whether it’s low, medium, or high-downforce, the RB21 has the performance and, encouragingly, the ability to keep the tyres alive; a key weakness in the first half of this season.

Has it been over-confidence that McLaren failed to recognise the fact the RB21 was clearly a capable car in need of fettling? Did the Woking-based squad believe Red Bull would throw its hands up and give up on the current regulations?

Or has it been a case that McLaren simply thought its MCL39 was so superior that, even if performance converged through the season, its lead was such that noone could possibly get in on the Norris/Piastri fight?

Is Ocar Piastri choking in championship battle?

Given the rapid re-ignition of Verstappen’s championship challenge, McLaren’s conundrum is that it doesn’t have the same luxury that Red Bull has in terms of absolute priority of a single driver’s efforts.

Such has been McLaren’s confidence in the fact it had control of both championships, the team has attempted to control what it views as ‘fairness’ between Norris and Piastri, resulting in clumsy management of various race events that have only resulted in a dilution of efforts.

Both young drivers are on a quest for a maiden title, with Piastri having the superior first half of the season as the Australian never put a wheel wrong through a measured and calm championship quest.

It’s very easy to be assured and in control when there’s still months of a championship left but, with the end in sight, it’s Piastri who is seizing up as the consequences for every little mid-step become amplified.

Norris has applied himself magnificently, and has shown more spark and fearlessness as the pressure has ramped up.

It’s worth remembering that this is Piastri’s first proper championship challenge, and the enormity of this appears to have started hitting him as the European season has dwindled into the rear-view mirror. Gone is the assuredness, the ‘iceman’ control and speed that saw him stake out his stall earlier in the year to claim the high ground at McLaren.

Piastri’s lead over Norris is now just 14 points, less than the points lost by the British driver in his mechanical DNF at Zandvoort, and Norris’ experience of having been in this situation before seems to be helping him perform closer to his ultimate potential more consistently.

With five race weekends remaining, Red Bull’s seizing of momentum means that McLaren must consider its options if its to maximise its chances of a title. Against the one-man inevitability that is Verstappen, does McLaren throw its weight behind one driver in a bid to ensure that at least one of them finishes ahead in the championship by Abu Dhabi?

The problem with that is that the logical choice, Piastri, is the one showing the signs of choking under the weight of expectation, while Norris is the one showing the speed and mental fortitude. The British driver wilted in the psychological battle with Verstappen last season, but is the one delivering more consistently and to a higher level at present.

Faced with a converging title battle against a rival potentially now better-equipped in the final stages, there is no obvious correct choice.

There’s also the question of whether McLaren, ultimately, is all that fussed about winning the title if it means potentially having to row back on the ‘principles’ it has stuck to all season. While the Drivers’ Championship might be the one with the ‘sporting glory’ in the eyes of the fans from a gladiatorial perspective, McLaren has succeeded in winning the title that matters in terms of commercial optimisation and financial reward.

Added to the headache McLaren faces is that, given their proximity to each other and the clinical approach throughout this year, neither driver is likely to willingly accept a supporting role this late in the game, even if it did ensure securing both titles for Woking. With rules revolution on the way, there is no guarantee of a winning car anywhere on the grid next year, meaning this year represents the best, and perhaps only, chance either has of becoming World Champion. Why would either give up that chance now?

Certainly, Verstappen appears to smell blood. The Dutch driver is gunning for a fifth consecutive title and, unlike his rivals, knows how to wage war mentally. Between his apparent nonchalance with the increasingly tense situation, racking up the victories, he knows the McLaren drivers are rattled, and that there is no way out for McLaren to row back on their insistence on clinical control of the championship fight without destroying the morale of one of its drivers.

Of course, the situation could change extremely quickly, given that the title fight is coming to life based on momentum rather than proximity.

A dominant win for Piastri would re-settle the ship and put the title that little bit further out of reach of Norris and almost certainly put an end to Verstappen’s increasing chances, but, as the pot begins to boil, the Australian has never looked more ill at ease and in need of the points lost from situations such as the position swap in Italy.

If Red Bull’s upswing continues in Mexico and Verstappen does close in further, McLaren will need to consider the very difficult proposition of forcing one of its drivers to play support; otherwise, there’s a very real danger that the insistence on equality will cost both drivers the championship.

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