Bahrain GP in Malaysia weather forecast: What is the risk of rain in Sepang?

Henry Valantine 30 Sep 2026 1:28 PM

F1 Malaysia weather has often been volatile over the years.

The Bahrain Grand Prix is normally a safe bet for dry weather. In Malaysia, though, it's a little bit different.

F1 takes in the first-ever Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia from October 2-4, and while the weather at the Bahrain GP is normally a given, Sepang has shown itself to have quite a different story.

Still being raced under the Bahrain Grand Prix name, Formula 1 heads back to Sepang for the first time in nine years at a location with a notoriously volatile climate. We’ve seen it all at Sepang in years gone by, and we may just do so again this weekend.

Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia F1 weather: What is the weekend’s forecast?

Friday 2 October [FP1, FP2]

Formula 1’s 2026 wet tyres have gone through the majority of the season without getting a run out, but that could be set to change this weekend.

Air temperatures of 31°C are due in FP1, though early forecasts hold a 60% chance of rain. For second practice later in the afternoon, the sun is meant to emerge with only a 10% chance of rain in the session, with similar warm air temperatures.

Saturday 3 October [FP3, qualifying]

Drivers may well have to stack as much running as possible into FP2 if they do not want to avoid crucial track time at a circuit on which Formula 1 has not raced since 2017.

Like Friday, FP3 is set to have a 70% chance of rain for the first session of the day, with air temperatures around 31°C. Those temperatures will hold through the afternoon into qualifying, with early forecasts suggesting the chance of rain will reduce significantly to 10% by the time qualifying begins.

Sunday 4 October [Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia]

Now, Sunday’s race may well be touch-and-go as to whether or not rain affects proceedings in the race.

Chances of rain at lights out sit around 50% at this early stage – though forecasts are likely to update throughout the weekend.

A temperature of 30°C is set to continue through the race, and the chances of rain currently decrease as the race goes on so, if wet weather does affect things on Sunday, it could be a wet-to-dry event if any rain falls.

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How has the weather been at previous Malaysian Grands Prix?

Taking in the Malaysian Grand Prix name specifically here, the weather has thrown up heat, humidity, and a whole load of rain in years gone by.

In dry conditions, Sepang proves an intense physical challenge for the drivers. The humidity in play adds a further layer of tiredness to overcome as the race goes on and, much like the Singapore Grand Prix, sees drivers lose a significant amount of weight in race conditions.

Combined with all that, though, comes the risk of monsoon-like rain at any given moment.

For the biggest example of this, look no further than the 2009 edition of the Malaysian Grand Prix. If you’re old enough to remember the words ‘Kimi Raikkonen’ and ‘ice cream’ in the same sentence, this is for you.

Jenson Button was comfortably leading the race for Brawn until, around the halfway point, the heavens opened and within minutes, cars were aquaplaning and racing became too dangerous.

A red flag was thrown after 31 of 56 scheduled laps and, because of the strength and duration of this storm, the remainder of the race had to be called off and half-points were awarded.

The drivers, who would normally want to race with every bone in their body, backed the decision as well. Lewis Hamilton said: “It was impossible to drive out there. It’s the most dangerous conditions I have ever raced in,” while Fernando Alonso added: “The visibility is nothing, [we] could have a serious accident if we restart.”

So, if and when rain does hit, quite literally anything could happen.

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