Data reveals how Max Verstappen turned the tables on Sainz with Baku pole

After a chaotic qualifying which produced no fewer than six red flags – more than ever before – the reigning World Champion Max Verstappen once again emerged as the fastest driver of the day for the second consecutive race weekend.

This time the main enemy was the circuit itself. With extremely difficult conditions, Max was the only one able to beat the time set by Carlos Sainz before the red flags appeared. How he alone managed to do it is something we can explain with the help of telemetry data.

Sixth pole position of the season for Max Verstappen

The record number of red flags at this year’s qualifying in Azerbaijan added an extra layer of chaos and excitement. The main cause of so many incidents was the tricky conditions. Baku is already known for its constant winds, but this time the unpredictability was even greater, heavily influenced by the layout and the presence of tall buildings surrounding the track.

This meant drivers never truly knew what awaited them at the next corner. The ever-shifting gusts, combined with a light drizzle that appeared towards the end of Q3, turned this session into one of the most difficult “dry” qualifyings we’ve seen.

The image below shows how track temperature changed throughout the session – you can clearly notice the drop in the latter stages, which significantly impacted car behaviour.

Another key factor during this session was the tyres. Pirelli decided to bring back the softest C6 compound in Baku, aiming to push teams towards a two-stop strategy. Already during practice it was clear these tyres were overly fragile, so in qualifying we saw a mix of mediums and softs being used.

After the first red flag in Q3, caused by Leclerc’s incident, it was Carlos Sainz in the Williams who held the fastest time. His lap on medium tyres was actually very strong. As the light rain began to fall and time was running out, the drama began.

Knowing how crucial it was to set a quick lap as soon as possible, all the drivers rushed out to get position on track. But not everyone managed to complete a lap, since further red flags soon followed – this time when Oscar Piastri, the current championship leader, ended up in the barriers.

Max was at that very moment on a flying lap, only a few hundred metres from the finish line when the session was stopped. Had he been able to cross the line, he would already have taken the provisional pole.

The extra delay only made things tougher: the track temperature continued to drop, and the surface became slightly wetter. Sainz’s chances of securing a first pole with Williams suddenly looked very realistic.

The first sign came with Norris’s attempt at a fast lap, which was slower and kept the Spaniard in P1. But after just the first sector of Verstappen’s lap, it was evident that the only man who could beat Sainz’s time was Max.

Below you can see the comparison between their two fastest laps – keep in mind that Verstappen set his time on the soft tyres.

From the very start of the lap, the difference in top speed is clear, thanks to Red Bull’s aerodynamic setup. Max gained a few hundredths before Turn 1, but it was on the long straight from T16 to the line – over 2 km in length – where he recovered around two tenths.

On the other hand, Williams were among the weakest teams this weekend in terms of straight-line speed, which is unusual.

Through the opening two corners Max was almost identical to Sainz – with conditions like these, it was hard to trust the car right away. But once the Dutchman felt the limits, he was unstoppable. At T3 and T4 he gained between two and three tenths on the Spaniard, meaning by the end of the first sector he was already over half a second quicker.

Sainz made a small error in T4, losing rear grip briefly and needing a correction with the steering, which cost him further time.

In the middle sector the gap stabilised, with both drivers almost identical. Sainz then produced a brilliant run through T16 – arguably the toughest corner of the session – holding a better apex and regaining a significant chunk of time.

But it wasn’t enough. Red Bull’s superior top speed once again made the difference, and by the end of the lap the gap was back close to half a second.

It was a truly phenomenal drive from the four-time Champion, once again showing how quickly he can adapt to conditions and extract the absolute maximum from his machine.

Key post-qualifying talking points from Baku

👉 Oscar Piastri crashes out of Azerbaijan qualifying to dent championship hopes

👉 Fernando Alonso drops massive F1 retirement hint

So what can we expect from Max in the race?

Verstappen has an excellent chance to take a second consecutive victory, especially with his main rivals starting further down the grid. Norris could do no better than P7, while Piastri lines up P9 after his crash. Unlike the previous race, Max now has only objectively slower cars behind him – a situation that clearly plays in his favour.

Despite Pirelli’s push to make the race a two-stop, the one-stop still looks like the most effective option, reducing opportunities for strategic variation. Moreover, Azerbaijan tends to have fewer overtakes compared to the average race in the ground-effect era. Aside from the main straight and possibly the DRS run between T2 and T3, drivers have a very little room to attempt passes.

That’s why it would be a surprise if Verstappen failed to make the most of this opportunity – although, as always in Formula 1, absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

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