Belgian Grand Prix weather: What is the risk of rain this weekend?

Belgian Grand Prix weather is famously changeable, with the expanse of the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps sometimes holding different microclimates from corner to corner.

Rain showers are far from uncommon in the Ardennes, which makes the challenge of navigating one of Formula 1’s fastest circuits that bit tougher. Let’s take a look at the early forecast for this year’s race.

Belgian Grand Prix weather: How will conditions be at Spa?

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Friday 17 July [FP1, FP2]

Early forecasts suggest practice Friday at the Belgian Grand Prix is more likely than not to be a wet one at this stage.

Of course, forecasts are subject to change as the weekend approaches, but air temperatures of 25°C are expected to be coupled with a 30% possibility of rain in FP1, before that increases to 65% in FP2 – meaning practice running may be interrupted.

Saturday 18 July [FP3, Qualifying]

Saturday is likely to mirror Friday’s forecast, with rain at least a 50% possibility throughout the whole of Saturday’s running in early assessments.

Showers are due to be light through the day, which would encompass both FP3 and qualifying, meaning the drivers are likely to need to get their heads in the right place for a potentially wet qualifying lap at Spa.

Sunday 19 July [Belgian Grand Prix]

After wet forecasts for Friday and Saturday, Sunday is due to be a cooler day overall, but with a much lower chance of rain at this stage.

Only a 10% chance of in-race rain is listed ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix, with air temperatures set to be around 21°C on Sunday afternoon.

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How has the weather been at previous Belgian Grands Prix?

Many a famous, or infamous, race has taken place in the wet at Spa in years gone by, with 2021 having been a landmark year for all the wrong reasons.

George Russell set an incredible lap to qualify on the front row in his backmarking Williams, but the weather would cause long delays on the grid on the Sunday and, after two solitary laps behind the Safety Car, half-points were awarded and the race was effectively nulled.

Another to stick in the mind, however, was when Formula 1 visited Spa in heavy rain in the 1998 season.

Chaos ensued on the first lap when an incredibly dangerous pile-up out of La Source, in which 11 drivers collided and crashed out of the race.

Later on in the race, Michael Schumacher collided with the back of David Coulthard’s McLaren and lost his right-front wheel in the process, which took both drivers out of the race. After returning to the pits, a furious Schumacher stormed towards Coulthard in what appeared set to be a fight between the two, with team staff having to intervene and separate them – before Damon Hill headed a Jordan 1-2 at the finish, just ahead of Ralf Schumacher.

In the dry, Spa is one of Formula 1’s most thrilling high-speed challenges and, in the wet, balancing aggression with a popular and famous layout ramps up the difficulty level even further.

Otherwise, a temperate climate at Spa sees a mixture of wet, dry, hot and cool races – meaning a mixed bag from year to year.

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